Master of Shanghai or Shanghai-d by the Masters ...

[EaglesPhan36]

My stupid thread for the week. Get ready to rumble. Huge tournament. One of the last two Masters tourneys with a lot of points available for dudes chasing a spot in the Tour Finals.

All the big boys are here: Federer, Djokovic and Murray. The other quarter is headed by Berdych and Tsonga and should feature some good matches with Raonic & Nishikori sprinkled in. Federer looks to have the easiest quarter of the Big 3. Djokovic probably 2nd easiest and then Murray's is a bit tougher, but he has won this thing two years running. I think his real road block to the semis would be a hot serving Isner, but Isner may not even get there if Gasquet turns the faucet back on this week. Hoping Berdych & Tsonga hold up for a QF clash, but both will have tests. Berdych could have to face Nishikori again and Tsonga potentially Raonic, although I am a bit skiddish on Raonic this week after he really flamed out hard in the final in Tokyo in the 3rd set.

Early Upsets
Verdasco over Monaco
Falla over Lopez
Bogomolov over Robredo *Fo reelz*

[Seto]

i sort of like troicki +222 against youzhny. not a big fan of the guy but this should be in the +160 to +180 range for me. good value.

[EaglesPhan36]

Monday, Oct.8th
Bogomolov +135
Haas -105

[MagicDiceFlow]

Nishikori wont make it far this tourney. He had his swan song last night and due for a major letdown. I would fade him in his 2nd or 3rd match. Berdych will kill him this next time round if they met.

[tevari]

Still have 101.5 points in my failed book. May I suggest putting in a few wagers?

[EaglesPhan36]

Weather forecast thru Friday looks good right now. Always a plus.

[EaglesPhan36]

Uno mas to open the week ...

Petzschner +125

[Bdolan33]

Im not seeing any lines for the big boys?

[EaglesPhan36]

They won't be playing until I think Wednesday. They all have first round byes.

[bane]

My book only has lines for about half the first round matches. Strange. None of the ones I like so they are likely saving me money.

[EaglesPhan36]

Lost both the 1st two by identical 7-6, 6-4 scores. Petz was more disappointing because he broke early in the 1st set and the wound up blowing it in the TB. Ah well. Hopefully Haas gets me on the board.

What book you using bane?

[beefcake]

Come on haas, for fukks sake..get broken already...Man up and beat this guy!

[Demonata]

Haas struggling in every service game.

[EaglesPhan36]

He's not going to win. Almagro has been serving great. I think Haas has seen one or two break points and they both came in the same game in the 2nd set. He didn't get either one. Most of the service games have been Almagro breezing and Haas struggling. Only a matter of time (looks like right now) before Haas fukks up. Perfect start to the week. Bleh.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll give him credit for battling so he can lose in a TB.

[Demonata]

I like haas in tie breaks more than almagro though.

[beefcake]

YES!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Well well. Sir Thomas of Haas wins the TB. Agony drags on another set!

[Demonata]

I just wish Almagro would not be winning over 90$ first serve points and having 17 aces. Haas should be winning this match. I felt he was better hard court player than almagro

[beefcake]

I kinda think AL is a douche.Looking to his box and having to pump himself up.Haas just goes about his biz and doesn't seem to get to hi or 2 low.Think tommy weathered the storm and is going to take it.

[Demonata]

Almagro also acts like a baby at times. He just started banging the ground with his racket.haha

[beefcake]

Double break bitch!!

[Demonata]

Yea buddy my first win in forever in tennis.

[Demonata]

Great job Haas, Beat that over rated player,

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice grinding win.

[beefcake]

Sir Thomas will be giving out free mead at the tavern tonight!!

[HeeeHAWWWW]

First two sets were just about the best I've ever seen Almagro play on a hard court (at least, on a real hard court, which doesn't include the blue claycourts like Miami and Indian Wells). Haas was getting overpowered a touch, and once behind in the rally didn't have the movement to retrieve the situation.

Then ...... doesn't finish the match off, Haas in the mood for a fight, and what a turnaround. Very impressive when you get outplayed for so long, but just hang in there, hang in there, until things change.

[EaglesPhan36]

Agreed. That is the one thing that Almagro always had screwed me with in hard court play over the years. I've taken him quite a few times in the middle rounds of the Australian & US Opens because his serve does offer him chances to stick with just about anyone when it is working - but he does seem to tend to lose focus/energy a lot later in matches on that surface. I think it must be a confidence thing because you rarely feel that way about him on clay. I do think Almagro has become a pretty feisty player on hard courts in the past couple of years where I don't think you ever look at his name any more and just say ... oh he's that clay court guy, pass.

[Bdolan33]

Whats next

[EaglesPhan36]

Tuesday, Oct.9th
Fognini +225
Verdasco +155
Falla +173


Fognini faces Baghdatis. I watched Marcos get raped by Nishikori in Tokyo. Yes, Nishikori was playing amazing tennis - but Baghdatis looked resigned to defeat early in that match when things did not go his way. His 1st serve percentage continues to be a major liability. I sat there and watched him serve when he was getting rocked and his service motion is constant and rushed no matter the situation. From a repetition standpoint, great - but he did not seem to take any time to gather himself when he needed to serve well in key points. Consistency for him has been a major factor this season, so taking Fognini at large odds seems solid in this one. Fognini has shown his competitive spirit on all surfaces, but surprisingly on hard courts that make him attractive enough here.

Verdasco against Monaco. Monaco is tough to figure out on this surface. He made a deep run @ this tournament in 2010 and has about one tourney per year on this surface where he gets hot. That seems to have been Miami early this year. Verdasco obviously isn't the most consistent player either, but at the odds with a surface that could be better to him + a match in-hand already is also worth the punt.

Falla vs. Flodonis, Feliciano Lopez. This is worth the money to me to see if Lopez is a fraud. He retired from the Tsonga match with a wrist injury last week. He was getting whipped good and didn't finish out two games to lose a double breadstick match. 6-1, 4-1 was where it ended. He has a good history at this tournament, so it will be interesting to see if he magically feels better this week. As such, just half a unit on this one.

[beefcake]

EP, did you notice that not one dog won last night?Might be wrong, but could be a doggy night big-time..

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah it was all chalk.

[RosieTheGreat]

Nishikori is going to be absolutely hated by the crowd here in China.

First round expect a lot of booing as he is playing a chinese national.

(see Diaoyu Islands).

On a side note, took the week off and down here watching the tournament in shanghai

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice. Get us that inside info!

[snufflyjoe]

Ep what are your thoughts on Anderson @2.82? , there is a capper I follow sometimes who recommended this play. I went with it and shortly after the line dropped to 2.58...thoughts?