Arbitrage Betting

[Monte]

^^ Funny how you ignored anything else, but tried giving me a lesson in value bets.
I don't talk to scum like you, i know your nick from this stinking place called Arbforum and know what you are all about.

[kiwi]

^^ Funny how you ignored anything else, but tried giving me a lesson in value bets.

Very simple thing: Value bets and arbs are close relatives. A value bet is an unbalanced arb and if playing arbs is not "honest" in your opinion that's valid for value bets as well because both methods take advantage of value odds.

I don't talk to scum like you

To insult people doesn't add some value to your text.

i know your nick from this stinking place called Arbforum and know what you are all about.

Haha, I also know where your house lives. But serious now: If you can quote something from me which is wrong in your opinion we can discuss about FACTS. To write "you are bad because you are member of a place which I don't like" is just very poor.

[Hareeba!]

i don't think there's a masterplan behind it with regards to eventually getting a license. 188 is extremely conservative in what countries they will allow customers from. they also blocked my country about a year earlier, while none of the other asians and hardly any of the other euro's does. they just don't want the hassle apparently.

but my point is that there is no "hassle" !!!
I used 188Bet for a good time without any hassles
there is no Australian law against betting with offshore agencies ... only against betting on live events and unless the bookie has an eye towards keeping in good standing with the Australian authorities they all simply ignore that because there's nothing Australia can do about it

[noyb]

and unless the bookie has an eye towards keeping in good standing with the Australian authorities they all simply ignore that because there's nothing Australia can do about it

exactly, that's how most books think, but my point was 188 is different. for some reason 188 wants to be in good standing with every government out there, not just the australian one, and if there's anything in a local law that is remotely contradictory to anything 188 is doing (like offering live-betting) for some reason they decide to boot everyone from that country without looking at any fine-print and without any willingness to look at for example prohibiting only part of their services. i've discussed this to death with them in the days and they don't budge.

[188]

exactly, that's how most books think, but my point was 188 is different. for some reason 188 wants to be in good standing with every government out there, not just the australian one, and if there's anything in a local law that is remotely contradictory to anything 188 is doing (like offering live-betting) for some reason they decide to boot everyone from that country without looking at any fine-print and without any willingness to look at for example prohibiting only part of their services. i've discussed this to death with them in the days and they don't budge.

You are certainly correct. I wanted to reply to Hareeba but decided to wait for someone to reply on the issue. And there you are to save my day.

[Hareeba!]

You are certainly correct. I wanted to reply to Hareeba but decided to wait for someone to reply on the issue. And there you are to save my day.

Not really.

If the reason you booted Australians is the in-play rule are you seriously saying it took you 10 years to learn about it?

Or are you saying you don't have the means to simply deny access to in-play betting so took the easy way out?

[Duff85]

It is hilarious that some clowns believe handicapping will not get you banned from a book, but arbing and steam chasing will. Books don't care if you are originating the move or following it. They only care if they are going to make money off your bets in the long term. Make good bets regardless of the method and you are going to get limited or booted. Simple.

[Hareeba!]

It is hilarious that some clowns believe handicapping will not get you banned from a book, but arbing and steam chasing will. Books don't care if you are originating the move or following it. They only care if they are going to make money off your bets in the long term. Make good bets regardless of the method and you are going to get limited or booted. Simple.

very very true

[188]

Not really.

If the reason you booted Australians is the in-play rule are you seriously saying it took you 10 years to learn about it?

Or are you saying you don't have the means to simply deny access to in-play betting so took the easy way out?

It's only 6 years. And Im working there for 4 years only. Regarding policy for every country? It's not my call and I can't comment anymore in that matter , I'm just a trader who gives out the odds that you bet.

So if you have any questions regarding other matters about sportsbook in general. Feel free to ask. I will answer it as long as I'm capable of answering it.

[Hareeba!]

It's only 6 years. And Im working there for 4 years only. Regarding policy for every country? It's not my call and I can't comment anymore in that matter , I'm just a trader who gives out the odds that you bet.

So if you have any questions regarding other matters about sportsbook in general. Feel free to ask. I will answer it as long as I'm capable of answering it.

Only 6 years?

The legislation was introduced in 2001!

I emailed 188 for the reason behind their decision to boot us but got no response at all.

[188]

Only 6 years?

The legislation was introduced in 2001!

I emailed 188 for the reason behind their decision to boot us but got no response at all.

6 years? I think I'm talking about 188bet in this timeframe. Established 2006.

[Hareeba!]

6 years? I think I'm talking about 188bet in this timeframe. Established 2006.

hmmm .. ok, but it still took you 6 years to find out about it?

and then you still can't deal with it in a proper manner?

[brettels]

Give the guy a break Hareeba he is just a trader not the owner of 188 it's not his call!

[filipinho]

Give the guy a break Hareeba he is just a trader not the owner of 188 it's not his call!

I think owner would know even less.Bunch of old shareholders.

[noyb]

Give the guy a break Hareeba he is just a trader not the owner of 188 it's not his call!

i agree. it's nice someone from inside an asian book posts here. i'm curious as to what goes on in these books. obviously this whole banning aussies-thing is not his call, take it up with 188 directly (or don't as it's useless, they don't care, i know from my own experience)

188, just out curiosity: how much people work with 188? do you personally work in an office or remotely?

[188]

i agree. it's nice someone from inside an asian book posts here. i'm curious as to what goes on in these books. obviously this whole banning aussies-thing is not his call, take it up with 188 directly (or don't as it's useless, they don't care, i know from my own experience)

188, just out curiosity: how much people work with 188? do you personally work in an office or remotely?

Although I cant detail the exact number of people working in from every department, I can give you a glimpse of what it looks like.

Basically, if you were employed as a trader to 188bet. You will be assigned to a certain league or sport which you specialize in. It will start with the basic knowledge of understanding the different kinds of odds, how to compute the margin and how to check odds from different sportsbook.

But if you have enough experience and was able to work at a sportsbook before, you don't need to undergo training and you can go straight to the operation wherein a senior trader will be assign to assist and teach you all about the procedure that you need to do inside the operation. Basically it is a lot, and I will not detailed it one by one.

You could be assign to a league that is suited for your time wherein you will be in-charge (in the future) of that league as long as you are able to handle it on your own.

That will be the simplest explanation that I can give.

[Hareeba!]

i agree. it's nice someone from inside an asian book posts here. i'm curious as to what goes on in these books. obviously this whole banning aussies-thing is not his call, take it up with 188 directly (or don't as it's useless, they don't care, i know from my own experience)

Yes it is great that he can answer some questions on behalf of the book and I appreciate that and of course the issue was not his call.

I have taken the issue up directly with 188 but they've ignored me.

It really is quite a simple question and I wouldn't have thought it should be that difficult to get an answer unless there is something afoot as I've suggested.

[188]

188, just out curiosity: how much people work with 188? do you personally work in an office or remotely?

We're working at an office. Are you asking about the number of traders or the whole number of employees? If you're talking about traders, probably around 300-400. But if you're talking the whole company. Maybe around 900-1200. Not so sure though. Just an estimate.

[rowand13]

Books know nothing about chasing steam. It is only us in the forums who created these fukkin definitions. I think there is only 2 scinarios for a so called arb.

A. A book is slow enough to move its lines to the point that allows bettors to chase it (happens with lower rated books): most likely these books and their management would not even understand what does steam chasing mean if you try to explain it to them, so how can they spot it and limit you if they dont even know what it is?

B. A book is offering very good odds on one side of a game in purpose, in order to attract bettors to bet that side to take more action on it (happens very often with A+ rated books like pinny): these books not only love you to bet that side but also attracting you to bet it. In other words they are telling you we want to sell you these tickets at that very good discounted price. Why in the world would they limit you.

Now from the above 2 examples, I don't understand how can some people get limited because of that bs called chasing steam. Now if you are a book and wanted to cancel a bet because it was 10, 20 or even 30 cents off, then fuk that book. You offered me tomatoes at a very good price because you have a lot of tomatoes to sell. Well, I am buying. So please pay me from the money you profited off of me selling the other side after moving the line. Books should never cancel any bet claiming chasing steam and bs. Please anybody tells me I am wrong...

[188]

Books know nothing about chasing steam. It is only us in the forums who created these fukkin definitions. I think there is only 2 scinarios for a so called arb.




Now if you are a book and wanted to cancel a bet because it was 10, 20 or even 30 cents off, then fuk that book. You offered me tomatoes at a very good price because you have a lot of tomatoes to sell. Well, I am buying. So please pay me from the money you profited off of me selling the other side after moving the line. Books should never cancel any bet claiming chasing steam and bs. Please anybody tells me I am wrong...

If a book has a price that is more than 30 cents from other books. It is obviously a "trader error" . Even Pinnacle make a "manual error or trader error". If you bet on one of them it will be cancelled obviously because it was a human mistake.

Seriously there is nothing to gain except that your account will be marked as "arbers" and be limited if you do it more than 10 times. That's usually a good sample to confirm that an account is an arber. Even if you are an arber it doesn't mean that you will be limited. We could decide to let you keep betting since we could use your account as a "signal".

If you're talking about die ball, a 30 cents off the line is obviously a "human error" . But if it is in-play even if it is 50 cents off the line of other books. It will not be cancel, since there is no way to know the right or wrong price in in-play since it is a judgmental job. And in one in-play or running ball. You might give more than a hundred different kinds of price. So it is your judgment against other books prices.

Hope this helps.

[noyb]

A. A book is slow enough to move its lines to the point that allows bettors to chase it (happens with lower rated books): most likely these books and their management would not even understand what does steam chasing mean if you try to explain it to them, so how can they spot it and limit you if they dont even know what it is?

you're completely wrong here. a book that is slow to move lines isn't necessarily retarded, but just doesn't feel it's worth it. it's extremely easy to spot someone betting slow lines (esp. after-the-fact) and it's extremely easy to spot what accounts are winning. it could potentially be a lot cheaper and more profitable investing all of your money in marketing and attracting as many idiot bettors as you can find, opposed to investing in state-of-the-art line software and competent traders. think about it, just limit everyone that has a clue consistently and always, and profit from the retards.
so you're explaination is way way off. every book knows what it is and every book will spot you in seconds.

[caveira]

you're completely wrong here. a book that is slow to move lines isn't necessarily retarded, but just doesn't feel it's worth it. it's extremely easy to spot someone betting slow lines (esp. after-the-fact) and it's extremely easy to spot what accounts are winning. it could potentially be a lot cheaper and more profitable investing all of your money in marketing and attracting as many idiot bettors as you can find, opposed to investing in state-of-the-art line software and competent traders. think about it, just limit everyone that has a clue consistently and always, and profit from the retards.
so you're explaination is way way off. every book knows what it is and every book will spot you in seconds.

I couldn't agree more man.

[pellumb341]

If a book has a price that is more than 30 cents from other books. It is obviously a "trader error" . Even Pinnacle make a "manual error or trader error". If you bet on one of them it will be cancelled obviously because it was a human mistake.

how is possible that "human mistake" happens always in WON bets and NEVER in LOST bets ???

[pellumb341]

But if it is in-play even if it is 50 cents off the line of other books. It will not be cancel, since there is no way to know the right or wrong price in in-play since it is a judgmental job. And in one in-play or running ball. You might give more than a hundred different kinds of price. So it is your judgment against other books prices.

Completely true. I have tried to explain this million of times to one shit bookie which has cancelled several times my in-play bets

[filipinho]

how is possible that "human mistake" happens always in WON bets and NEVER in LOST bets ???

Who would bet on the wrong side of palp? That happens really rarely.

[20Four7]

I don't know if its true that some books put off market lines intentionally just to catch arbers so they can kick them out or limit them, but I wouldn't be surprized if it is. You can double a decent bankroll in a month but you will get booted or limited from all recreational books. I consider arbing one of my biggest mistakes in sports betting. Yes I doubled my money, but now I am severely limited at bet365 and I wish I wasn't.

I am limited at 365, interwetten, SIA and others. I rarely arb any more but I did it since it was "free" money. You will usually win at the "off" book" and lose and the decent book (pinnacle). Arbing isn't a mistake but make sure you bet a standard amount i.e. 220 to win 200 not 210.50 as that is a sure sign of arbing.

[kiwi]

Who would bet on the wrong side of palp? That happens really rarely.

True, but keep in mind one important difference in favour of the book: If the book makes a palp it will cancel the bet, but if YOU make a mistake due to lack of concentration or whatever you can (nearly) never cancel your wrong bet...

[rowand13]

you're completely wrong here. a book that is slow to move lines isn't necessarily retarded, but just doesn't feel it's worth it. it's extremely easy to spot someone betting slow lines (esp. after-the-fact) and it's extremely easy to spot what accounts are winning. it could potentially be a lot cheaper and more profitable investing all of your money in marketing and attracting as many idiot bettors as you can find, opposed to investing in state-of-the-art line software and competent traders. think about it, just limit everyone that has a clue consistently and always, and profit from the retards.
so you're explaination is way way off. every book knows what it is and every book will spot you in seconds.

90% of books that are slow to move their lines can not spot you. I am not saying they are necessarily retarded, but rather don't have the qualified staff to spot it like other A rated books. Simply because the don't hire enough qualified people to deal with slow line movements, how can the have enough qualified people to catch a more complicated thing like chasing steam. Please any1 tell me how many of you got limted at these d or f rated books because of chasing steam? I highly doubt it.

[rowand13]

Examples of how Pinny and some other A rated books make money.

1. Yesterday they sold the OKC Thunder -3 at +105 (closing line) while other books had them at -3.5 (-110). They know that OKC will get ****** up on the road by the Utah Jazz exactly as I expected. Btw the Jazz was leading the game by 10 point for almost the whole game and they won the game right away.

2. Pinny also had the Jazz 1st half +1.5 at -128. please look at the score board. Not even close.

3. Pinny closed the Bucks 1st H. yesterday +2 at about (-126). Please look at the score board.

4. Pinny closed the Kings 2nd H. yesterday +4.5 at about (-125). please look at the final score.

5. A few minutes ago Pinny had the Chicago Bulls 2nd H spread -8 at (+123). The game is still 3rd Q rihgt now, but even if the Bulls cover it will be a very hard win. Well, may be not....

Pinny always gambles and decide one side of the game on more than 75% of the games and most of the time their guess is not only correct, but rather not even close. Even if the other side covers it is almost always happens at the very final seconds of the game. They rarely have a balanced action (odds) on both sides. But why did they do that and how can they tell?. It is apparently how they profit off of people buying the +111 or +116 and thats why they love them.

[rowand13]

Examples continued:

6. Pinny on the Lakers +2.5 1st half vs Mavs: line movement as following (-115) to (-117) to (-118) to close at around -123. Lakers won 1st half by 13 points. Again not even close.

7. Look at Pinny here challenging all other books even those who usually follow pinny's movements blind folded:

Pinny here offers odds against all other book makers trading the Mavs. -5.5 for the 2nd. half at around (+101) while almost all other books had the Mavs. -5.5 at (-120) or (-115). That's Pinny taking the Lakers at -7.5 for the game. By the way the game is still early 4th. quarter at the time of this post. Well, you all saw it. Pinny will do it again EASILY again (both halves) not even close. That's how they do it that simple. Amazing stuff. Now, the question is. Why isn't it easy for any1 to win a lot following this. I think because if any of us lose just one wager we will go immediately trying to chase our losses and that's how we lose more. Any thoughts?

[Hareeba!]

90% of books that are slow to move their lines can not spot you. I am not saying they are necessarily retarded, but rather don't have the qualified staff to spot it like other A rated books. Simply because the don't hire enough qualified people to deal with slow line movements, how can the have enough qualified people to catch a more complicated thing like chasing steam. Please any1 tell me how many of you got limted at these d or f rated books because of chasing steam? I highly doubt it.

they only need one person who is capable of reading reports which their software can be set up to identify steam players

[mlfan]

Examples continued:

6. Pinny on the Lakers +2.5 1st half vs Mavs: line movement as following (-115) to (-117) to (-118) to close at around -123. Lakers won 1st half by 13 points. Again not even close.

7. Look at Pinny here challenging all other books even those who usually follow pinny's movements blind folded:

Pinny here offers odds against all other book makers trading the Mavs. -5.5 for the 2nd. half at around (+101) while almost all other books had the Mavs. -5.5 at (-120) or (-115). That's Pinny taking the Lakers at -7.5 for the game. By the way the game is still early 4th. quarter at the time of this post. Well, you all saw it. Pinny will do it again EASILY again (both halves) not even close. That's how they do it that simple. Amazing stuff. Now, the question is. Why isn't it easy for any1 to win a lot following this. I think because if any of us lose just one wager we will go immediately trying to chase our losses and that's how we lose more. Any thoughts?

If you think there's an edge doing that, then stick to proper size betting and you ll make money. But your observational sample size there is way too small to determine if your theory is correct.

[188]

how is possible that "human mistake" happens always in WON bets and NEVER in LOST bets ???

I have one explanation to these.. Those who WON their bets and has been cancel will complain while those bets who LOSE will not complain thus making a situation that shows that only the BETS who were cancel are those who won their bets.

[188]

I am limited at 365, interwetten, SIA and others. I rarely arb any more but I did it since it was "free" money. You will usually win at the "off" book" and lose and the decent book (pinnacle). Arbing isn't a mistake but make sure you bet a standard amount i.e. 220 to win 200 not 210.50 as that is a sure sign of arbing.

Nice tip.. But we can still tell which one is" true arb" or "false arb". But don't worry as long as you are arbing in small amount you will not be limited. But of course I can't control other traders action. I can only control those customer who bets my league. If I categorize you as arbers, it could still be change to a regular customer after I check your other bets.

[188]

Examples of how Pinny and some other A rated books make money.

1. Yesterday they sold the OKC Thunder -3 at +105 (closing line) while other books had them at -3.5 (-110). They know that OKC will get ****** up on the road by the Utah Jazz exactly as I expected. Btw the Jazz was leading the game by 10 point for almost the whole game and they won the game right away.

2. Pinny also had the Jazz 1st half +1.5 at -128. please look at the score board. Not even close.

3. Pinny closed the Bucks 1st H. yesterday +2 at about (-126). Please look at the score board.

4. Pinny closed the Kings 2nd H. yesterday +4.5 at about (-125). please look at the final score.

5. A few minutes ago Pinny had the Chicago Bulls 2nd H spread -8 at (+123). The game is still 3rd Q rihgt now, but even if the Bulls cover it will be a very hard win. Well, may be not....

Pinny always gambles and decide one side of the game on more than 75% of the games and most of the time their guess is not only correct, but rather not even close. Even if the other side covers it is almost always happens at the very final seconds of the game. They rarely have a balanced action (odds) on both sides. But why did they do that and how can they tell?. It is apparently how they profit off of people buying the +111 or +116 and thats why they love them.

Examples continued:

6. Pinny on the Lakers +2.5 1st half vs Mavs: line movement as following (-115) to (-117) to (-118) to close at around -123. Lakers won 1st half by 13 points. Again not even close.

7. Look at Pinny here challenging all other books even those who usually follow pinny's movements blind folded:

Pinny here offers odds against all other book makers trading the Mavs. -5.5 for the 2nd. half at around (+101) while almost all other books had the Mavs. -5.5 at (-120) or (-115). That's Pinny taking the Lakers at -7.5 for the game. By the way the game is still early 4th. quarter at the time of this post. Well, you all saw it. Pinny will do it again EASILY again (both halves) not even close. That's how they do it that simple. Amazing stuff. Now, the question is. Why isn't it easy for any1 to win a lot following this. I think because if any of us lose just one wager we will go immediately trying to chase our losses and that's how we lose more. Any thoughts?

I'm not authorized to talk about other book's strategy nor will I talk bad about them.

Let me tell you just one thing. Take more sample size and record it. How about a hundred or a few hundred. Then check the result. Are you going to win based on that strategy. Based on just reading this, I can tell that you are only giving samples that "they" were correct. How about those they were wrong? That's why you need to make a big sample to confirm your theory.