Zizou's picks 2012/2013

[Bluedragon]

nice comeback lol

[PuckIt]

Ok, Freiburg is serious slapstick there. 0:2 after 205 seconds(!!), the whole second half is totally theirs, they are way over Mainz heads, but the ball doesn't find the back of the net. I can't do much about this. Only thing I can be glad of: I'm not on the over 2.5. I bet a lot of guys already saw the money in their pockets after 205 seconds.

that actually sounds longer than 3' to me haha

[diogone]

There's our push!!!!

[diogone]

And again cross bar Freiburg in the 91'
Tell me again that I don't have a bad run.....

they must practice crossbar shooting!! pretty accurate shooting those guys!!!

[zizoudane10]

2:2, penalty in the 94'

Guys I swear: sometimes a push feels like a big time win and the adrenaline is floating your body like crazy. 6 times aluminium for Freiburg. This 2:2 is so goddamn deserved.

[zizoudane10]

Auxerre is behind now, but even if they lose I'm still up 1 unit today.
Man this fcking push feels so undeserved, but so great at the same time because it was so late.

[zizoudane10]

Freiburg wins 3:2 in extra time.... I don't think Mainz is going to come back here. Man, I guess that proves at least that my bet wasn't a bad one.

[PuckIt]

Real Madrid up 1-0, might be a good opportunity for Barca live ML @ +130 or Barca PK @ +115

[zizoudane10]

Real Madrid up 1-0, might be a good opportunity for Barca live ML @ +130 or Barca PK @ +115

I saw it until the penalty, was having dinner after it. From what I saw until the penalty Barca looked smoking hot. And yeah, I really might consider having a livebet on the pk here! Tuning in again now!

[zizoudane10]

Germany, DFB-Pokal, Mainz - Freiburg, Freiburg pk @2.36 4/10 (Pinnacle)

2:2 FT, +-0 units

35 wins, 41 losses, 12 push -----> -1.635 units

[zizoudane10]

Austria, Rapid Vienna - Sturm Graz, over 2.5 @2.02 3/10 units (Pinnacle)

[zizoudane10]

zizou

do you point any reason why uve been not doing well ?

Sorry, didn't make it yesterday, but I've got the time to do it now:

First of all: Some picks were bad ones in retrospective. There are always times when you as a punter miss some important informations/facts when analyzing a game. That's not ideal, but it happens from time to time. I have no problem admitting a failure and have done so in the past, when I was thinking I made a bad decision. It was a factor here, but a very small, because I think most of the picks were good.

Second is: You could see I was up more than 20 units a few months ago. And here is the major factor for me: You could very well see on my blogabet site, that I am still up 67 units in this season with my pregame picks alone. So one factor is, that I didn't post all my pregame picks here because of lazyness and/or time.
But that's not the point here. I have had only 19 pregame picks in december+january+february combined and I had 45 in november alone. That was because of time. So on one hand, it is simple variance here. Running bad these 19 picks, which is a VERY small samplesize on the long run has cost me 25 units alone. And this means nothing. I am doing this for so many years now, there is one thing I always tell guys (f.e. friends) who are new to this: It is a marathon, not a fcking sprint. So running bad on such a small samplesize of picks doesn't worry me a lot. Although I really have to say this: Despite of the small samplesize, some "strange" in the meaning of "not normal" things happened since december. A lot of games didn't went as they should "normally". But okay, that's nothing to strange. I have talked to a lot of guys from my network of good punters all over the world and there was a consent that especially february wasn't a sunny month for as punters.

Third thing is: Being down a unit in this pregame picks doesn't mean that I'm down with these picks. I am watching most of the games that I'm playing pregame, so there are very often really great opportunities to either cut losses or, even better, to make a profit despite losing the initial pick. But I've made it very clear that this is a pregame thread only. And I have stated why that is the case. But don't get me wrong here: I'm not trying to whitewash anything here. Fact is, that I am way below 50% winning picks here. Moneymanagement is something that I really know of though.

Last point is: As you can see, I am mostly playing odds that are about @2 or higher. So of course there is a lot more risk, than playing mostly heavy favourites and @1.3 moneylines. Don't get me wrong again: I do play anything where I see value left. But for me, there is no point in suggesting plays between 1.1-1.5. Why should I recommend Bayern f.e. today, when most of the guys already know that it is the obvious play.

One last thing: I've said it before: I am not celebrating like I'm a genius after big wins, and I'm not complaining and bitching when I'm losing big. The moment one decides to tail a bet, it is his bet. And only his bet. I am not responsible for a single bet one makes because of following I suggestion I made. Often guys don't get this. Some of my friends who are very successfull punters in other forums had times when they were getting bad mails and pms after lost picks, even though they are longterm high-winning players. That happens when guys are blindly tailing and have poor moneymanagement. I am a guy that has a legit record here. All plays are stated black on white. I'm no Roxxy or Seaweed or... or.... or..... who love to celebrate themselfs while ignoring that they are down BIG time. Right now I'm down (slightly, but down) here. And everyone can see this. I guess that is what's called "being real".

[zizoudane10]

Austria, Rapid Vienna - Sturm Graz, over 2.5 @2.02 3/10 units (Pinnacle)

1:1 FT. -3 units
Now that's one loser I can live with. Expected Rapid to win 2:1/3:1/3:0 they had enough chances here, but the offense wasn't sharp enough today. So in my opinion Rapid didn't deserve a win and this bet deserves to lose.
35 wins, 42 losses, 12 push -----> -4.635 units

[onemoregoal]

I hate Sturm Gratz, I always lose when they are involved.. Wanted to follow you at 1-1 but i f ucking hate that side.

[zizoudane10]

One more for today:
Bolivia, Aurora - Bolivar, over 3 @2.14 3/10 (Pinnacle)

I have played Bolivar @2.2 and Bolivar HT/FT @5 a few days ago. Bolivar is only 1.636 now, so I can't recommend this play. We might see some goals here though in my opinion.

[zizoudane10]

I hate Sturm Gratz, I always lose when they are involved.. Wanted to follow you at 1-1 but i f ucking hate that side.

Yeah, not one of my favourite teams as well

[zizoudane10]

Hehe, I had a hard look at Madrid today and decided not to play them. And now they are up 2:0 after 32'. That's the way it goes right now I guess

[Vaughany]

Yeah, not one of my favourite teams as well

Austria league is ridiculous at times...only team I ever feel comfortable backing is Austria Vienna!

[zizoudane10]

Austria league is ridiculous at times...only team I ever feel comfortable backing is Austria Vienna!

Austria tends to be a cashcow sometimes live! Love them (don't care for them as a team, but they mean money)!

[zizoudane10]

One more for today:
Bolivia, Aurora - Bolivar, over 3 @2.14 3/10 (Pinnacle)

I have played Bolivar @2.2 and Bolivar HT/FT @5 a few days ago. Bolivar is only 1.636 now, so I can't recommend this play. We might see some goals here though in my opinion.

1:2 @HT. We have a push already

[zizoudane10]

There is the 1:3

[zizoudane10]

One more for today:
Bolivia, Aurora - Bolivar, over 3 @2.14 3/10 (Pinnacle)

I have played Bolivar @2.2 and Bolivar HT/FT @5 a few days ago. Bolivar is only 1.636 now, so I can't recommend this play. We might see some goals here though in my opinion.

2:3 FT, +3.42 units

[zizoudane10]

2:3 FT, +3.42 units

36 wins, 42 losses, 12 push -----> -1.215 units

[zizoudane10]

Early one for sunday:
Germany Bundesliga, Hoffenheim - Bayern, Bayern AHC-2 @2.48 5/10 (Pinnacle)

[zizoudane10]

It's funny how you sometimes love a bet a bit more every day, but deep in your stomach you don't feel good about it....
I love this play, I really do. I don't care about Heynckes rotating, I don't care who plays in front and stands in goal for Bayern. I really am so fcking sure, that Bayern is going to beat up Hoffenheim pretty fcking hard. Hoffenheim is such a bad team, it's incredible. This team is dead. Even more I would say they are dead, buried, a dog found them, ate their bodies, puked them out, and buried them again. These guys have no heart, no soul, nothing to give. They don't even deserve the word "team". Kurz always claims that he still reaches the team, but fck no, he doesn't.
But still I've got a baaaaaad feeling about this one.... Normally with these odds I would have gone 10/10 here, but because I do have this bad feeling, 5/10 seems enough.

Let's hope that my stomach is an idiot and I can say to him after the game: Fck you stomach, brain knows best byatch

[bolek]

You gonna get a push cause I have a feeling only ends 2-0

[zizoudane10]

You gonna get a push cause I have a feeling only ends 2-0

Yeah, honestly I think there is a zero percent chance of a loss.
And a 1:1, 2:2 1:0, 2:1, 3:2, seems extremely unlikely to me.
Honestly I hope for a 3:0, 4:0 here.
If Bayern really wants to this would be a bloody massacre. I doubt they give 100% though because of the match against Arsenal.

[onemoregoal]

1-3 0-3 1-4 2-4
Lets see... GL

[onemoregoal]

Actually Im joining you with the -1.5 on Bayern.

[bolek]

Gl I hope u do well

[zizoudane10]

Thx guys, will be a nice little sweat to watch it tomorrow, best of luck for you, too!

[PuckIt]

wutcha think about Spurs PK tomorrow?

[zizoudane10]

wutcha think about Spurs PK tomorrow?

Sounds good. I think Arsenal should have a hard time defensively. Mertesacker and Vermaelen will have a hard time trying to get control of Bale, Lennon, Adebayor. Cazorla saved Arsenal against Villa, doubt that he can do it again... Tottenham should be seeking revenge for their 2:5 last game, too. Tottenham is the better organized and more compact team imho. I don't really see them losing, so a pk @1.65 might be a good bet here.

[PuckIt]

could also be a contender for an over play too!

[zizoudane10]

could also be a contender for an over play too!

over 2.5 makes perfect sense here, yeah.