show me the munneh

[showtiime]

ITA
AC Milan -1 / $1.32
Juventus Clean sheet / $1.72
MEX 2 Leon +0.5 / $1.50
SER 1 Partizan Belograd ml / $1.14
UCL Real Madrid +0,-0.5 / $1.32
AUT 2 FC Pasching - SV Villacher u2.5 / $1.80

Total odds: $9.00
Risking 2u to win 16.0u

WIN ++12.12u

Game in Milan is a push but rest of the legs are easy cashes, got that one in with some to spare so I hope people were able to benefit from that.

Decided to do a late write up on the game, you could get these 3 in live & the game starts in 15 so I guess there's still a bit of time to get it in but the odds won't change much in-play, unless something happens early. Anyway..

Well here were have the 2nd Champions League Semi-final played at the Bernebau, Spain. With Bayern winning the first leg 2-1 in Germany some would say the scoreline may have flattered the Germans but in the end Real Madrid could be happy with the end result in getting that crucial away goal that sets up this 2nd leg more in their favor.

I'm going to take Real Madrid to qualify for a couple reasons,

1. I personally think there won't be more than 1 goal scored by the half, Mou is the master of the 2'leg CL system, if Bayern somehow score first, that could be detrimental to this play as they may / could think that's enough to go through & don't push forward as much as they usually do, of course that's not their style & haven't really paid much attention to the pre-match banter so I guess it's up to Heynckes in what tactics he would deploy if that situation arose, it's highly doubtful though. Don't really think this one will have as much goals as everyone think it will but I'm not confident in the thought there will be more than 3 unless there's an early goal, that being said no where near confident enough to risk anything on it as I could be totally wrong. Both teams are attacking minded but while it should be more of a spectacle in terms of an more even (competitive) & free flowing game in areas - but I certainly don't think it'll be constant end to end. There's too much at stake & you could say even more so with Bayern as there would be no better time / chance to win the Champions League than when the final is in their house (Allianz Arena) vs a team in Chelsea who will have several players unavailable due to carry over yellows or injury.

Anyway another important factor I think will be..

2. Team morale. Real Madrid just beat Barcelona on their home turf at the Nou Camp to basically seal the Primera title & subsequently deny Barcelona the chance to defend their Championship from last season, this was an amazing win for them & Mourinho's first throughout his whole tenure with the club. When Ronaldo scored to make it 1-2, you could see they knew what they had accomplished & the utter joy of finally defeating their fierce rivals - Hey Ronaldo didn't even show his leg muscles off but he was composed as ever in beating Valdes & in turn making it virtually impossible for Barca to catch them in the last games of the season.

Bayern are in the opposite direction, Borussio Dortmund have already clinched the Bundesliga title & there is rumor of in-fighting within the camp. Specifically the word is, Ribery had a scuffle with Robben last week over Toni-kroos taking a free kick, it continued on into the dressing room & Ribery punched Robben in the face, & Robben was upset that nothing was done about it by the team, by all reports Robben in fairly 'soft'. Not sure if that part is true at the moment it's just hearsay as I haven't bothered to follow it up but if it is indeed true that's only going to be detrimental to the teams performance despite what they may think about leaving it off the pitch but & it may affect their level of play & with those particular 2 having the most technical ability on the team if they're not firing in Madrid it may be much easier to contain them especially if Madrid press the ball.
Will have 3 plays on this game, I'm going for Madrid to qualify in 90 minutes for 5 units.

UCL Real Madrid madrid to qualify in 90 minutes / $1.90 Risking 5u to win 4.5u
& to cover that play I'm going to place 1u on:

LOSS -5u

UCL
Real Madrid - Bayern Munich
Game to be decided after extra time / $11.00 / Risking 1u to win 10.00u

LOSS -1u

So basically wil be down 6u if Bayern qualify in the 90 minutes, or up units either way if it's won in extra time & doesn't go to penalties.

if it does I guess the fact that it lost will be cushioned by me not minding seeing big games in penalties, guess I just like the spectacle of it.
Anyway, GL to anyone who tails.

Well only thing that really could've buried me here is penalties & that's how it ended with me losing 6u on this game thinking it'd be doubtful it'd go the full distance - but little did I know the tactics that would be employed by both managers & it's quite obvious both sides played more cautiously in the 2nd half. Not going into a elagonated match report here as I couldn't be bothered but basically penalties buried me because if there was any other outcome other than Bayern qualifying in 90' it would've meant I was up 4.5-5u regardless, also drunk the juice on Ronaldo to score as I felt it was almost a lock & my thoughts were justified when with him netting a brace & subsequently both of Madrid's goals.

If it didn't go the distance I'd be sitting here very happy but unfortunately what would've normally been seen as a very good night in the end just turns out to be an ok one, oh well. I liked the fact that Bayern go through to the final because as I said in another thread I will be all over them at whatever price to lift the trophy at home, especially with Chelsea having their squad ravage by suspensions & injury, whatever line up the blues put out there will definitely their first choice team, we'll just have to wait & see I guess.

Going back on my word on the first post in here to keep a separate record for single plays as I could've be bothered I'll just add them to the parlay one but will still give my thoughts on the bigger games as we near the end of most seasons in big leagues around the world.

Parlay record 16-44 ++108.46u

[TheRedGambler]

Well, too bad the semi-final game had an unlucky outcome for you, I really liked your approach on that one, although I wasn't brave enough to pick a side, neither to win, nor to advance.Anyway, nice parlay, as always

[showtiime]

Games start in 30 minutes, odds look big but really it's just the Stoke/Arsenal selection that's bumped it up so much, add that if you want although odds are more than enough without it, be as greedy as you want.

EPL
Norwich +1.5 / $1.40
Everton +0 / $1.30
Newcastle +0.5,+1 / $1.37
Stoke - Arsenal 2 or 3 goals / $2.00
ENG L1
Preston - Charlton u3 / $1.37
Hartepool - Leyton Orient u3.5 / $1.25
Colchester - Tranmere u3 / $1.35
AUT 1 Austria Vienna - Wacker Innsbruck u3 / $1.47

Total odds: $17.12
Risking 2u to win 32.24u

[MatI]

Newcastle...

[showtiime]

Newcastle...

Now 4-0, funny thing is I knew there was something with that game but couldn't look past the fact that Newcastle hadn't conceded in their last few & were on a 5 match win streak in good form, what was swaying me was Wigan's recent performances against the better sides leading into today, which is why I didn't just go for the +0.5 in case they pulled out the win, looks like we won't even need the ,+1 unless Cisse scores a hat-trick in the 2nd half, hope you tailed only small mati.

Not very often the parlay is dust by half time but to be fair Wigan are dominating & there's nothing Newcastle can do about it.

[MatI]

To honest, i missed your parlay until after the games had started but I was already on Newcastle DNB.

The game had been bothering me as well. I was worried about about Wigan taking another win of a top flight team, but Newcastle are healthy, and like you said, so many clean sheets lately, plus with so much on the line for them, I thought worst they will do is a draw. I learnt my lesson. They had already beaten Arsenal & ManU. Should have just laid off.

I was watching the 1st half, and Wigan just tore them apart.

[showtiime]

Reloadin' here. Again the 2/3 goal market in Croatia seems the more risky but that market has cashed in 11 out of the last 12 games involving the 2 sides - with 4 straight for the home side and 6/7 for Zadar ending with 2/3 goals. Just going by those numbers $2.00 odds seem a gift but we all know stats can only go so far so let's just hope that particular game holds the trend for today.

EPL Norwich +1.5 / $1.40
AUT 1 Wiener Neustadt - Trenkwalder Admira u3.5 / $1.30
TUR 1 Galatasaray +0.5 / $1.27
CZE 2 Opava - Banik Most u3.5 / $1.28
CRO 1
Split - Zagreb 2 or 3 goals / $2.00
Slaven Belupo - Zadar u3.5 / $1.32
SLO 1 MSK Zilina +0.5 / $1.30

Total odds: $10.27
Risking 2u to win 18.54u

[showtiime]

Total odds: $17.12
Risking 2u to win 32.24u

LOSS -2u

Total odds: $10.27
Risking 2u to win 18.54u

LOSS -2u

Rough night, reloaded after the first loss but shot a blank.

0-2 = -$400 for the night = I'm going to bed.

Parlay record 16-46 +104.46u

[showtiime]

Game in Poland has now just started as I type this but rest not for 20-30 mins. Obviously games in Cyprus are the most risky but no asian lines available on those so had to go with the u2.5. All 4 teams are involved in low scoring games with the first match up (Alki/Nea) cashing the u2.5 in 15 of their last 18 & the 2nd game 34/38 games involving the sides ending with 2 goals or less. Amazingly Enosis Paralimna's last 21 games have cashed in this market out of a possible 22. I like those numbers & have added both.

AUT 1 SV Ried - Rapid Vienna u3.5 / $1.32
BEL 1 Neman Grodno - Dinamo Minsk u3 / $1.32
CYP 1
Alki Larnaca - Nea Salamis Famagusta u2.5 / $1.75
Aris Limassol - Enosis Paralimna u2.5 / $1.72
POL 1 Slask Wroclaw - Zaglebie Lubin 2 or 3 goals / $1.95
ITA C1/a
Lumezzane - Como u3 / $1.30
Sorrento - Pro Vercelli u3 / $1.27
Spal - Avellino u3 / $1.32
Viareggio - Benevento u3 / $1.37

Total odds: $30.70
Risking 1u to win 29.70u

[O]

Sorry for the crap question but what does it mean 2 or 3 goals? How do you place that wager in a parlay? Is it a prop bet? BOL today!

[showtiime]

Other parlay is still in play, just started 2nd half in Italy & games in Cyprus having started just now. Tennis leg is just about to start but others not for 30-60 minutes.

CRO 1 HNK Cibalia +0.5
EPL Blackburn +3 / $1.20
MAC 1 FK 11 Oktomvri - Vardar Skopje u3 / $1.32
FRA 1
Nancy - Caen u3 / $1.30
Rennes - AC Ajaccio u3.5,4 / $1.26
ATP Rafael Nadal - David Ferrer 18-20 games / $2.87

Total odds: $9.92
Risking 1u to win 8.92u

[showtiime]

Sorry for the crap question but what does it mean 2 or 3 goals? How do you place that wager in a parlay? Is it a prop bet? BOL today!

Means 2/3 goals have to be scored in the match, most euro books have this market & the majority of the time it's around even odds, I throw them in every now & then because despite the bigger odds I'm usually just as confident in them as unders & handicaps cushioned by asian lines. I doubt you'd be able to play that one though because if I remember correctly you are a US guy.

[showtiime]

AUT 1 SV Ried - Rapid Vienna u3.5 / $1.32
BEL 1 Neman Grodno - Dinamo Minsk u3 / $1.32
CYP 1
Alki Larnaca - Nea Salamis Famagusta u2.5 / $1.75
Aris Limassol - Enosis Paralimna u2.5 / $1.72
POL 1 Slask Wroclaw - Zaglebie Lubin 2 or 3 goals / $1.95
ITA C1/a
Lumezzane - Como u3 / $1.30
Sorrento - Pro Vercelli u3 / $1.27
Spal - Avellino u3 / $1.32
Viareggio - Benevento u3 / $1.37

Total odds: $30.70
Risking 1u to win 29.70u

LOSS -1u

Grading this one with couple games to go as it's already a loss with 2 games in Italy going over, kinda weird as the other 2 games in Italy were pushes, very strange round of games there as that has to no doubt be one of the top 'under' leagues in the world. The games that went over both ended with 4 goals, 2-2 & 3-1 respectively, to put things into perspective - I like to look back where I went wrong when it's more than 1 leg busting the parlay & it's hard to see where I did with those particular games as 4 goals had only been scored in 5 out of the last 100 games involving all 4 teams, those kinda numbers are damning but guess luck plays it's part as well.

Parlay record 16-47 +103.46u

[O]

Means 2/3 goals have to be scored in the match, most euro books have this market & the majority of the time it's around even odds, I throw them in every now & then because despite the bigger odds I'm usually just as confident in them as unders & handicaps cushioned by asian lines. I doubt you'd be able to play that one though because if I remember correctly you are a US guy.

OK got it... I think. So that is total goals regardless if it's 3-0 or 2-1. Is that correct? But you're probably right, I won't be able to get it since I'm in the us. Good luck man!

[O]

why can't I transfer you points?

[showtiime]

Last one for today, if this loses & my previous one including the tennis leg doesn't hit (soccer legs look like all hitting 20 mins into the 2nd half, tennis leg is the one that looks shaky with the first set going to a tie-break) I will have gone 0-5 this weekend pretty much eating away the profit from a hit at the start of the page. Might have to have a little break posting these in here if this ends up being the case, min-break for a few days kicked me back into gear last time & hopefully will have the desired effect this time if this final one for today is a loss, I realize parlays are an up & down game but when you go 0-5 it's time to step away for a bit whether you're talking straight up or parlays even.

Some start in 20 mins, rest not for longer, would've got this in earlier but have been distracted watching some games. I do however like this one the most out of all 3 played tonight, hence the 2u risk, let's hope I don't jinx myself!

ARG A
San Lorenzo - Arsenal De Sarandi u3 / $1.22
Union De Santa Fe +0 / $1.40
ARG B Independiente Rivadavia - Sportivo Desamparados u3 / $1.22
MEX 1 Tijuana - Unam Pumas u3 / $1.27
ECU Lega De Loja +0 / $1.92
SPL Atletico Madrid +0.5 / $1.30
NBA San Antonio HT/FT / $1.40

Total odds: $9.34
Risking 2u to win 16.68u

[MatI]

OK got it... I think. So that is total goals regardless if it's 3-0 or 2-1. Is that correct? But you're probably right, I won't be able to get it since I'm in the us. Good luck man!

It means there must be 2 or 3 goals in the game. Any other amount of total goals in the game will be graded as a loss.

[O]

OK thank you..... last question..... San Antonio HT/FT? Is that a prop to lead at half and win? Thanks in advance.

[MatI]

San Antonio HT/FT? Is that a prop to lead at half and win? Thanks in advance.

[O]

Ah ha!!! Thank you!!!

[showtiime]

why can't I transfer you points?

Because we're both non-pro's, can only transfer 2 points a day.

Am actually thinking about going pro as I'm thinking about signing up to 5dimes along with it, mainly because, even though their soccer markets are limited - I feel I could abuse the 'open parlay' option there quite a lot. Guess you'd probably get limited if you exploited that enough with repeated success but I guess I won't find out until I try it.

[MatI]

I hope they win for ya showtime. I didn't tail on these, I have enough of my own on the go, but GL today mate.

[showtiime]

Cheers Mati, how you go tonight? Looking to be a rough one for me 0-2 so far with the tennis game now confirmed as the sole spoiler in that 2nd one, Nadal decided to play like an ass in the final against someone he usually owns, hopefully this last one pulls me from the fire from the weekend.

You like any bases plays?

[MatI]

I've taken Cubs! 35 minutes until it starts!

[showtiime]

Actually just see now you're on the Cubs, sure it's not a homer play? May sprinkle some down for a little action.

[MatI]

Most of my plays on Cubs games are fades. But Garza is pitching well. He has had one dodgy start against miami, giving up 6, but his other 3 games has gone atleast 6 innings and given up a total of 4 runs. Kendrick is out of the bullpen and has been smacked around so far. I am expecting it to continue today...

[showtiime]

Alright done, my $$$ rests with Garza. I'm a complete square when it comes to bases & could be wrong but also think the fact that the cubs are a road fave is pretty telling.

[MatI]

Alright done, my $$$ rests with Garza. I'm a complete square when it comes to bases & could be wrong but also think the fact that the cubs are a road fave is pretty telling.

Spot on. Books aren't silly.

Having said that, this is still baseball, and our money is still on the Cubs. They are unique in finding ways to lose.

[pellumb341]

ARG A
San Lorenzo - Arsenal De Sarandi u3 / $1.22
Union De Santa Fe +0 / $1.40
ARG B Independiente Rivadavia - Sportivo Desamparados u3 / $1.22
MEX 1 Tijuana - Unam Pumas u3 / $1.27
ECU Lega De Loja +0 / $1.92
SPL Atletico Madrid +0.5 / $1.30
NBA San Antonio HT/FT / $1.40

Total odds: $9.34
Risking 2u to win 16.68u

[swordsandtequila]

Don't have the same options (US) so cherry picked your soccer choices best I could (replaced Atl. Madrid with Barcelona ML). The Ind. Rivadavia/Sportivo match screwed me; only option was o/u 2, looked at their stats and took the over. Pisses me off we have such limited options. Cost me a 29-1 payout. End of rant. Look forward to more of your posts. Good luck.

[showtiime]

CRO 1 HNK Cibalia +0.5
EPL Blackburn +3 / $1.20
MAC 1 FK 11 Oktomvri - Vardar Skopje u3 / $1.32
FRA 1
Nancy - Caen u3 / $1.30
Rennes - AC Ajaccio u3.5,4 / $1.26
ATP Rafael Nadal - David Ferrer 18-20 games / $2.87

Total odds: $9.92
Risking 1u to win 8.92u

LOSS -1u

Well as mentioned before the tennis busts this parlay with the other legs being easy hits. Nadal decided to play in cruise control for some reason, especially throughout the first set. I guess you don't have to push too hard when you've beaten a guy 10 out of the last 11 matches with the only loss due to an injury. Although in saying that Ferrer did play well, much better than throughout the week in Barcelona. Oh well.

ARG A
San Lorenzo - Arsenal De Sarandi u3 / $1.22
Union De Santa Fe +0 / $1.40
ARG B Independiente Rivadavia - Sportivo Desamparados u3 / $1.22
MEX 1 Tijuana - Unam Pumas u3 / $1.27
ECU Lega De Loja +0 / $1.92
SPL Atletico Madrid +0.5 / $1.30
NBA San Antonio HT/FT / $1.40

Total odds: $9.34
Risking 2u to win 16.68u

WIN ++7.73u

Well fortunately I hit this one, with the game in Ecuador ending 0-0 for a push to basically cut the payout in half.
Really felt confident in that leg which is why I didn't go for the +0.5 so we get profit on the draw as the teams couldn't have had much more disparity in their respective form & Lega De Loja actually thrashed the home side (Tecnico) 4-1 in a reverse fixture only 2 weeks ago - so you could excuse me for my eyes lighting up at odds of almost evens for the round handicap on LDL. Watched most of the game & LDL were the more potent side going forward, ball cleared off the line etc, usual things you tend to complain about when a bet doesn't cash. Oh well, parlay hit anyway which is what's most important & I'm glad I finally hit one after a tough couple days to turn out some profit for the night, overall a bad weekend though with the expectations I have of myself but hopefully will turn it around as there should be a few midweek games to ponder over.

Parlay record 17-48 ++110.19u

[showtiime]

I've taken Cubs!

my $$$ rests with Garza.

Also teased the under.

[MatI]

[showtiime]

Obviously not much to play today & the main focus for most will be on the Manchester Derby, can't really pick a side with any real confidence in this title defining match so decided to go with the 2 or 3 goals market. It's unlikely we'll see a 0-0 or 1 goal winner because if Ferguson sets up his team to contain & hit on the counter, surely City will have to push for the winner if it remains cagey too long because if they don't win here Man United have essentially retained the title. You obviously can't expect United to not scramble 1 point from the remaining 2 games, so it's basically all or nothing for the Citizens.

It's also worth noting not long into the 2nd half of said game will see the other legs in the parlay finishing so may be able to get a decent hedge chance if the goals are flowing & there's 2 at the break, however I'm not so convinced this will be the goal-fest everyone thinks it will be but I see the scoreline being somewhere in that 2/3 goals area. Obviously a lot will depend on how Ferguson sets his team up & I would say he sacrifices one of the wide men for another body to sure up the middle & try to contain the Fab 4 city have up front. Although I'm hearing Nani is in doubt due to an ankle injury picked up at training, how serious this is I'm not sure but if it's the same ankle that has given him trouble this season then Fergie's hand may be forced into setting his team up differently & bringing in someone to give a little more protection to their back 4. (You never know, the Scot may look to the out of favor Ji-Sung Park?) - he's almost the forgotten man this season but he was used in pretty much every big game last campaign, so he may opt to spring a surprise selection, who knows? Bit of a stab in the dark there but wouldn't completely shock me if he's drafted into the starting 11. Even if Nani does get passed fit & United play their usual line up you'd think both wide men (Valencia & Nani) won't be given free reign to push forward as much as usual. Also don't forget Everton just put 4 past them at home, so taking this all into account I just think Man United will sit back & absorb the pressure while not taking TOO many risks going forward, while a win would be nice, a draw will be a job well done because of the 3 point buffer they currently hold. Of course if there's an early goal that will turn things on it's head & tactics will be adjusted accordingly but in saying that I expect the first 20 or so to be fairly cagey so if that's the case then my analysis may be spot on, I guess we'll have to wait 'n see!

If it's goals galore I assume that's the leg most likely to bust the parlay but in saying that if there's more than 3 in the net at the end then the fact that it was a good free-flowing game will soften the blow of the loss. (I hope)

One game in Argentina (the first leg) was just about to start when I started typing, wasn't supposed to be a write up on the big game I guess I just got a bit carried away. While one has already started - the rest don't for an hour or so, enjoy!

ARG B
Almirante Brown - Defensa Y Justicia u2.5,3 / $1.32
Guillermo Brown - CA Atlanta u3 / $1.27
FRA L2 Lens - Le Havre u3 / $1.25
FRA 3 Luzenac - US Orleans 45 u3 / $1.27
SWE 2 Halmstad - Trelleborgs FF u3.5 / $1.32
EPL Manchester City - Manchester United 2/3 goals / $2.00

Total odds $7.13
Risking 2u to win 12.26u

[showtiime]

ARG B
Almirante Brown - Defensa Y Justicia u2.5,3 / $1.32
Guillermo Brown - CA Atlanta u3 / $1.27
FRA L2 Lens - Le Havre u3 / $1.25
FRA 3 Luzenac - US Orleans 45 u3 / $1.27
SWE 2 Halmstad - Trelleborgs FF u3.5 / $1.32
EPL Manchester City - Manchester United 2/3 goals / $2.00

Total odds $7.13
Risking 2u to win 12.26u

LOSS -2u

Well my analysis of the game was pretty much spot on in terms of line ups & tactics employed, Park played only his 2nd game of the campaign & you could tell he had only played 17 minutes prior all season with the Korean looking uncomfortable on the ball & coughing up possession at least twice under no pressure when you'd expect him not to. Obviously he was dragged off after the half as United had to go for the draw/win with City currently level on points at 1-0 & enjoying a much superior goal difference. They just looked impotent in attack (even when Fergie brought on Wellbeck & Valencia to go with a tried & tested 4-4-2), deflated performance for sure & it honestly looked like they were still in shock from the come from behind draw against Everton (4-4) at old Trafford.

Didn't get that elusive 2nd goal to cash the parlay but it didn't matter in the end due to a game going over in Sweden. United played very poorly though with only 1 shot on target the whole game, while I knew they would be set up to contain first & then attack you'd expect them to muster more than 1 chance throughout 90 minutes. However, it wasn't the sole spoiler of the parlay as the game in Sweden was the only other leg to go bust & did so with about 15 minutes before kick off in Manchester so was able to salvage the loss on the parlay & hit my only pre-match straight bet (no early goal, <27') for a couple units at $1.83 & then was actually able to turn out a little profit for the night in also hitting "no 2nd goal" @ evens around the 70-75' minute mark (free in-play bet on the game if a pre-match bet was placed at 365 ) as Mancini was making his intentions clear by that time with subs & just the flow of the game suggesting City would be satisfied in holding onto their slender 1-0 lead.

& that's how it ended, I'm sure Ferguson will be blamed for the loss in regards to the way the team was set up but it was a terrible performance by United nonetheless & while his tactics definitely contributed to their downfall with City dominating most of the match, surely some emphasis has to be put on the players. I wouldn't give anyone in red higher than a 5/10 while City had good performances all over the park (Nasri, Toure, Teves & to some extent Aguero & Silva in the 1st half. Standout's aside, the point is all 11 players did their job & well & truly outplayed United for the majority of the match.

Newcastle can definitely spoil the party (Man City's) at home though, you could say United may still have the edge in terms of games remaining (although City with +8 goals) because their last 2 games are at Old Trafford but they'll be hoping the magpies do them a favor & throw a spanner in the works of their 'noisy neighbors' heading into the last game of the season.

Parlay record 17-49 +108.19u