Mansion Team of Week - Sunderland

[Dark Horse]

Mansion offers a free Asian handicap bet on a soccer team each week, for up to 50 British Pounds, or about $85. Losers get their money back once. For details check mansion.com.

The offer is interesting, because it means that we can keep betting on soccer without risk until we lose. (Probably Mansion is trying to get its healthy share of the upcoming World Cup fever with this promotion.)

Thought I'd open a thread to discuss the game of the week.

Manchester United hosts bottom team Sunderland.
Asian handicap is set at 2 and 2.5. I hardly ever bet on soccer, but I think this means that if ManU wins by 2 goals, a Sunderland bettor will have half of his wager push at +2, and the other half win at +2.5.

If personally don't think ManU will win by 3 or more goals. Sunderland is just not interesting to them. Meanwhile, Sunderland is getting a last shot at Premiership glory, because next season they'll be playing a division lower. So my early lean is Sunderland +2 and +2.5 at -111.

Thoughts?

[moses millsap]

I think you have to bet a specific side for that promotion (the one they designate) if I read correctly on a different forum.

[Dark Horse]

You're right. You have to place a bet ON the selected team. What a strange promotion... Not too much capping required. lol

[totobernal]

I think sunderland is going to loose by 4 goals.. ManU seems hungry for goal, as you could see in the match vs arsenal... score of 2-0.. and that was against Arsenal! now how much more can they do against the last team of the premiership? just think of that

[Dark Horse]

Sunderland hasn't lost by more than 2 goals since January 31st.
Of course ManU was motivated against Arsenal, but why should they care about lowly Sunderland in the same way? ManU hasn't won by more than 2 goals in the Premiership in 2006...

Not that it makes much difference. The only team to bet on is Sunderland. Rules of the promotion.

[natrass]

Since the mansion sponsoring of man united collapsed they have been offering free bets on their opponents.

Not bad business sense as man united right now are hot. I had them to beat arsenal anyway and they will beat sunderland. That is a fact.

A smart man would arbitrage this for @ £25 profit.

[Dark Horse]

You have to be careful with those Asian handicaps.
If ManU wins by 3 or more, Sunderland wager loses. Loss is returned.

But

If ManU wins by 2, half of the wager on Sunderland pushes and the other half wins: 1/2 'unit' up.
If ManU wins by 2, half of a wager on ManU pushes, and the other half loses: 1/2 'unit' down.
In that case the Sunderland wager didn't lose, but the profit was cancelled out by the wager on ManU.

[Dark Horse]

Manchester United 0
Sunderland 0

$85 free wager wins $76. Not a lot, but enough to take the misses out for dinner.