Mr.Kittys 2010/11 soccer thread

[Mr.Kitty]

U-21 Euro Q: Slovakia-Norway over 2.5 @ 1.70, 2.14 units to win 1.5


U-21 Euro Q: Czech Republic - Iceland over 2.5 @ 1.80, 1.25 to win 1

Iceland must win by atleast two goals to advance here, the over is worth a shot. Both Norway and Iceland plays 86% over during the group stage and their opponents 57%.

Result: 2-0, +2.5 units
Record: 36-27-3, +10.61 units

[Glada Tartan]

Snyggt jobbat!

[Mr.Kitty]

Snyggt jobbat!

Thanks bro, Heja Sverige ikväll!

[Glada Tartan]

Heja heja!

Vi möter trots allt Europas sämsta lag...viktigt med många mål för målskillnaden!

[SRBI]

Ibra 1...Go Sweden!

[Glada Tartan]

2-0 ...we play really good!!

[Mr.Kitty]

2-0 ...we play really good!!

Yeah if we keep playing our best through out the whole match this could end really bad for SM, like 8-0 bad

[Glada Tartan]

Hamrén sa innan matchen att han drömde om just 8-0

Källström...hes just amazing in this game

[Mr.Kitty]

Jag missade försnacket

Zlatan is a playmaker now brilliant passing

[Mr.Kitty]

Lousy day for betting today but tomorrow it gets better and ive found a interesting match in Austria Erste Liga:

SCR Altach - FC Admira:

Second placed Altach takes on the leaders Admira for the second match in a row, last meeting on 27/08/2010 Admira won at home with 3-2.
League table

-Altach stands with a 6W-1D-2L record (19p), 25:11 goals and 4W-0D-0L, 12:1 at home.
-So far Admira is undefeated with 8W-1D-0L (25p), 26:7 and 4W-0D-0L, 12:3 away.

Form table

-The big difference right now is form where Admira is just a machine with 6-0-0, 16:4 to compare to Altachs 3-1-2, 14:11.

-Altach has played all of their last 6 matches over 2.5 and 5 of them over 3.5, (one cup game)
-Admira has played 5 of their last 6 matches over 2.5 and 2 of them over 3.5, (one cup game)

Over/Under 2.5 stats

-Altach, 8/1 and 3/1 @ home
-Admira, 7/2 and 4/0 away

69% of all games goes over in this league so far and with these stats we see that Altach plays over 89% and 75% at home while Admira plays 78% over and 100% away.

Over/Under 3.5 stats

-Altach, 6/3 and 2/2 @ home
-Admira, 4/5 and 2/2 away

51% of all games goes over 3.5 goals in this league so far, and Altach plays over 67% and 50% @ home while Admira plays over 44% and 50% away.

H2H history:

-When Altachs been the home team I can only find one meeting in 2009 that ended in a 0-0 draw. But when Admiras been the home team I can find three meetings, the last one ended 3-2 like I mentioned earlier. The other two ended 2-0 Admira in april 2010 and 2-2 in august 2009. So total is 2W-2D-0L for Admira.

Suspentions/Injuries

I havent found anything about this so far, the websites of the teams havent released any previews yet.

Odds from bet365

Altach @ 2.25/+125
Draw @ 3.25/+225
Admira @ 2.75/+175

Altach 0, -0.5 @ 1.95/-105
Admira 0, +0.5 @ 1.90/-110

Over 2.5, 3 @ 1.825/-121
Under 2.5, 3 @ 2.025/+102

Conclusion

Its not a wild guess to say that this is going to be a close match, Altach is certainly very pumped to take three points here and close the gap at the top, right now they are 6p behind. At the same time Admira wants to extend their lead and they are coming into this match with the confidence that they recently beat this team. Its very hard to predict a winner in this one and its hard not to lean Admira AH 0, +0.5 due to their advantage in form but at the same time after such a good start they cant keep winning every game and Altach is a very strong home side. I just cant bring myself to fade them, you should always ride a team thats hot and keep following the moneytrain until it ends, and this train havent stopped yet.

Therefore the best bet in this one might be the over 2.5, 3, the statistics so far tells us that this bet has a very high probability to win. I need to check suspentions and injuries before I put my bet in but as of now I expect to put in a medium/high stake bet on the over 2.5, 3.

Any suggestions and comments are very welcome.

[Mr.Kitty]

This is a summary of the last meeting, looks like someone got a red card so I got one piece to the suspention/injury puzzle. (The commentary is in German)

[Mr.Kitty]

Austria Erste Liga: SCR Cashpoint Altach - FC Trenkwalder Admira over 2.5, 3 @ 1.825, 1.21 to win 1

Belgium Eerste Klasse: St.-Truidense - Anderlecht under 2.5, 3 @ 1.775, 2.6 to win 2

I decided to only go small on Altach-Admira over because I hesitated about how much its worth, the line havent moved on bet365, on betphoenix it was at -120 yesterday and now its -112. I expected this to move towards over 3.

[JOHON8]

Altach - Admira 2-2 at half , these guys don't like defending they wanna beat each other with goals.

[Mr.Kitty]

Altach - Admira 2-2 at half , these guys don't like defending they wanna beat each other with goals.

Yeah I love to bet over in Austria, I feel a little bad for not betting more like I first intended.

[Mr.Kitty]

Austria Erste Liga: SCR Cashpoint Altach - FC Trenkwalder Admira over 2.5, 3 @ 1.825, 1.21 to win 1

Belgium Eerste Klasse: St.-Truidense - Anderlecht under 2.5, 3 @ 1.775, 2.6 to win 2

I decided to only go small on Altach-Admira over because I hesitated about how much its worth, the line havent moved on bet365, on betphoenix it was at -120 yesterday and now its -112. I expected this to move towards over 3.

Result: 2-0, +3 units
Record: 38-27-3, +13.61 units

[JOHON8]

Very nice, good thing I used betfair to lay hedge that Anderlecht game on half time I had a feeling Anderlecht would tighten up... I didn't win anything, but at least I learned something.

[Mr.Kitty]

Very nice, good thing I used betfair to lay hedge that Anderlecht game on half time I had a feeling Anderlecht would tighten up... I didn't win anything, but at least I learned something.

And thats always good, I learned that next time I have a very good feeling about a play, just insta-bet it big before I change my mind . Thanks btw!

[svenodds]

Austria Erste Liga: SCR Cashpoint Altach - FC Trenkwalder Admira over 2.5, 3 @ 1.825, 1.21 to win 1

Belgium Eerste Klasse: St.-Truidense - Anderlecht under 2.5, 3 @ 1.775, 2.6 to win 2

Nice day Kitty

[Mr.Kitty]

Nice day Kitty

Thank you svenodds, GL this weekend.

[Mr.Kitty]

Saturday 11/9:

Italy Serie A: Milan -1 @ 2.00, 1 units

Ibra, Ronaldinho, Pato, Robinho and co should atleast win, right? The public will be all over this one .
I will be gone all day tomorrow, will return on Sunday, good luck everyone!

[svenodds]

Saturday 11/9: Italy Serie A: Milan -1 @ 2.00, 1 units Ibra, Ronaldinho, Pato, Robinho and co should atleast win, right? The public will be all over this one . I will be gone all day tomorrow, will return on Sunday, good luck everyone!

with you on that one

[Mr.Kitty]

Saturday 11/9:

Italy Serie A: Milan -1 @ 2.00, 1 units

Ibra, Ronaldinho, Pato, Robinho and co should atleast win, right? The public will be all over this one .
I will be gone all day tomorrow, will return on Sunday, good luck everyone!

I LUV it! cant be dissapointed when Milan lose, after their first game a lot of ppl already talked about them being the best Italian team bla bla bla then they fail miserably the next game with all of their stars .

Record: 38-28-3, +12.61 units

Going to start looking at whats in store today.

[h1holstrom]

Milan lost 0-2
Ibrahimovic failed penalty
Ronaldinho, rubinho and pato .... shit

[Mr.Kitty]

Milan lost 0-2
Ibrahimovic failed penalty
Ronaldinho, rubinho and pato .... shit

Yeah, but props to Cesena for both winning this game and getting the draw vs Roma. They can be the surprise newcomer this year.

[vieruccio]

today or me
Juventus -115
Over 2.5 +105
Pinnacle

[Mr.Kitty]

today or me
Juventus -115
Over 2.5 +105
Pinnacle

Good luck , I cant trust Juventus yet but thats just my opinion.

[Mr.Kitty]

I have found one interesting match for tomorrow in Norway Tippeligean: Stromsgodset - Molde

-Stromsgodset are in great shape right now (4W-1D-1L, 11:6 last 6 matches) and they are strong at home with 8W-1D-2L, 21:15.

-Molde have not won a single away game in 11 attepts and stand with a 0W-5D-6L, 12:23 record, their form is not good at the moment going 0W-3D-3L, 5:9 last 6 matches.

-H2H since 1996 these teams have meet 7 times @ Stromsgodsets home field, Molde has the advantage here with 4W-1D-2L. The two most recent meetings ended 0-2 Molde in 2009 and 4-0 Stromsgodet in 2008.

-Odds from bet365:
-Stromsgodset @ 2.20
-Draw @ 3.50
-Molde @ 3.10

-Stromsgodset -1 @ 3.20
-Molde +1 @ 1.325

-Over 3 @ 1.875
-Under 3 @ 1.975

The asian hcp line is really 0, -0.5 but im more interested in the -1 line.

-Conclusion: I think its hard not to be tempted by Stromsgodset here with these odds, they have much better form and are strong at home. One cause for some concern is the H2H stats but Molde was for example a much better team last season then Stromsgodset, Molde placed second overall. And all but three of those H2H was played between 1996-1999 so they arent that relevant. I need to take a look at suspentions/injuries before tomorrow but right now im very tempted to take:

Lean: Stromsgodset -1 @ 3.20

[Mike Lonsdale]

After Roma and Milan yesterday, I would go for Lecce @ 3.39 today.

Everybody is saying omg it's Sampdoria. So, the #%&!, what? Del Neri knows everything about them, isn't that a pro? Juventus is a nice pick, but in under @ 1.86 for me.

Good luck

[Mr.Kitty]

Another interesting one for today in Belgium Eerste Klasse: Club Brugge - Genk

-Club Brugge has started the season with 2W-0D-3L, 8:8 and 1-0-1, 5:3 at home.

-Genk have just amazing form winning all of their 5 matches so far, 5-0-0, 19:3 and 2-0-0, 8:1 away.

-H2H @ Brugge: Genk have got the best of Brugge the last couple of seasons with three wins and one draw last four meetings. But overall Brugge has the advantage with 8W-2D-4L, the latest win came in 2006.

-Over/Under 2.5
-Brugge 4/1 and 2/0 at home
-Genk 5/0 and 2/0 away

-Suspentions/injuries:
-Brugge will have to cope without Blondel, Akpala and Kouemaha (susp).
-Genk have no suspentions or injuries.

-Odds from bet365:
-Club Brugge @ 2.30
-Draw @ 3.30
-Genk @ 3.10

Over 2.5, 3 @ 1.825
Under 2.5, 3 @ 2.025

-Conclusion: Genk is on fire so I cant fade them. The over also looks good. Thats why I will try:

Genk @ 3.10, 1 unit to win 2.10

Over 2.5, 3 @ 1.825, 2 units to win 1.65

[Mr.Kitty]

I might add more on those bets later, will´see.

[Mr.Kitty]

After Roma and Milan yesterday, I would go for Lecce @ 3.39 today.

Everybody is saying omg it's Sampdoria. So, the #%&!, what? Del Neri knows everything about them, isn't that a pro? Juventus is a nice pick, but in under @ 1.86 for me.

Good luck

Not a bad option, promoted teams are killing it right now. Good Luck Mike!

[Mr.Kitty]

-Conclusion: Genk is on fire so I cant fade them. The over also looks good. Thats why I will try:

Genk @ 3.10, 1 unit to win 2.10
Over 2.5, 3 @ 1.825, 2 units to win 1.65

No longer playing the over, intead im adding those two units on Genk so I have a total of 3 units to win 6.3 on this bitch, just cant pass up this awesome value. Its not that I dont fancy the over I just think its better to lay them on Genk win.

Genk @ 3.10, 3 units to win 6.3

[ukbsktbll]

Red card for Genk think this will get us the over?

[JOHON8]

GL on Genk I went big on the +0&+0.5 last night.

We're winning 0-1 Genk, but they have a red card with like 30 minutes to go...

[Mr.Kitty]

Red card for Genk think this will get us the over?

I think theres a small chance for a over if theres a goal before the 70th minute, I hope Genk can score one more. I obviously hate the red card scenario, screws up the game otherwise I think Genk would have won convincingly. Come on Genk!