Netherlands to win world cup +800

[nobs]

I still love the Netherlands to win the World Cup and the way the second stage is shaping up looks to be very favorable to the Netherlands chances.

Italk has lost and wont be moving on. Had Italy won today, they would have likely opened against the Netherlands. Now the way it is, the only real good team that could end up on the same side of the draw as the Netherlands is the Brazil vs Spain winner.

I believe whoever that turns out to be, the Netherlands will have the big advantage in the round of 8.

First, The Netherlands open up against Slovakia which I think will be a pretty easy win for them. I just dont believe Slovakia has the talent to stay with us in the knockout round. Not taking anything away from this team, as it did beat Italy today.

Still, Slovakia started today in last place in their group and even with the big win against the defending champions they still only finish second in their group. We also have to admit that Italy was a much older team now and was never really a contender to win this thing. Italy didnt win a single game in this years Cup. That may be the first time ever for a defending champion.

Next, The Netherlands will get their only real test IMO before the championship. That will be in the round of 8 as they likely face the Brazil/Spain winner. However, the Netherlands will be coming into that game fresh having just beat Slovakia while whoever they face will likely be coming off a draining dogfight and that potential Brazil/Spain matchup is actually a battle of the number 1 and 2 FIFA ranked teams in the world. ( facing each other in the first round of knockout stage ??????? )

I admit that will be a serious test, but if the Netherlands can survive that, then in the round of 4 they will either face Uruguray, South Korea, USA, or Ghana. My guess would be Uruguray be whoever it is, the Netheralnds assuming they get that far would be the huge favorite.

Then on to the championship where my best guess is they would face Portugal, or Spain if Spain ends up on that side of the draw. If that happens nothing much changes as in the above Scenario, it would be Brazil/Portugal instead of Brazil/Spain.

All in All, I think the round of 8 matchup between the Netherlands vs. Brazil/Spain/Portugal will decide who wins the world cup and I believe the Netheralnds if they win today and win Group E as is heavily expected will be the in a great spot to take this.

Remember this team has a great offense and has given up 0 goals so far in the Cup. I think this team is the real deal and there is no way that I can see how +800 is not big time + EV.

I have been on the Netherlands from the beginning and that play was posted at +1400 before the first game of the world cup was ever played. Not generally the type to double up the bet, but I just cant beleive that this team is still getting +800 the way this draw has worked out to be so favorable to them. That of course assumes they win Group E which I realize is not 100% but its pretty close. Even if they lose today, they will surely win group E.

I am feeling pretty good about the above scenario, remember even with a draw the Netherlands will win group E. They will have 7 points and the Japan/Denmark winner will only have 6.

If they lose today, they still have 6 so it comes down to goal differentail which they are +3 now, Japan is even, and Denmark is -1, so unless the Netherlands loses by 2 or more they will win Group E and the above Scenario is valid.

[mv09]

I still love the Netherlands to win the World Cup and the way the second stage is shaping up looks to be very favorable to the Netherlands chances.

Worst Case Draw

Slovakia
Brazil
USA/Uruguay
Argentina/Spain/Germany/England

Tough

[thabeest]

Teams that have started out very good have rarely if ever won the whole cup in the end.

[constrictor]

netherlands not good enough to win the wc

[suckerforparlays]

Im suprised you didnt put a LOCK around the TITLE

[Dark Horse]

I have them at +1500, but I don't like what I've seen so far. By now you want all the players to be on the same page. But Van Der Vaart is clearly holding out and is there for himself first; at the cost of the team and, more personally, Sneijder. He's not happy with a spot on the bench, and has said so very recently. He's consciously taking over Sneijder's position on the field, clogging up the middle, even though his spot is on the left. A team can't gel when there's a jerk like that.

On top of that, Van Marwijk is first and foremost focused on not losing a match, and only then on winning. The result is a team that seems to have only two gears: first gear, and ... reverse. The problem is one between philosophies. The core of the team has a Ajax background (six of the starters). The famous total football, introduced to the world by Orange Clockwork in 1974, was born at that club. But Van Marwijk's background is that of Ajax's historical enemy. He coached Feyenoord; a team of working class football. To me he's already failed as a coach of Holland, because the team is clearly not gelling. It is only because the results so far have been very good - eleven wins in competitive matches without a draw or loss!-, that the Dutch fans, normally extremely critical of their soccer, are relatively quiet. Most seem to have bought into the idea that it's worth a shot to try to win it ugly for a change (instead of coming up short with beautiful soccer).

The main ingredient to win a WC, other than talent, is luck. No matter how good you are, no luck, no cup. So you want to lower the number of games where luck is needed. In this, Holland has already been successful. It looks like their only powerful opponent on the way to the final is Brazil in the quarterfinal. Add the final and you end up with two games where at least some luck is needed.

If you have them at +800 you may want to put some on Brazil, if the two teams meet in the quarter final.

[lakerboy]

Good summary DH.

[JOHON8]

I have them at +1500, but I don't like what I've seen so far. By now you want all the players to be on the same page. But Van Der Vaart is clearly holding out and is there for himself first; at the cost of the team and, more personally, Sneijder. He's not happy with a spot on the bench, and has said so very recently. He's consciously taking over Sneijder's position on the field, clogging up the middle, even though his spot is on the left. A team can't gel when there's a jerk like that.

On top of that, Van Marwijk is first and foremost focused on not losing a match, and only then on winning. The result is a team that seems to have only two gears: first gear, and ... reverse. The problem is one between philosophies. The core of the team has a Ajax background (six of the starters). The famous total football, introduced to the world by Orange Clockwork in 1974, was born at that club. But Van Marwijk's background is that of Ajax's historical enemy. He coached Feyenoord; a team of working class football. To me he's already failed as a coach of Holland, because the team is clearly not gelling. It is only because the results so far have been very good - eleven wins in competitive matches without a draw or loss!-, that the Dutch fans, normally extremely critical of their soccer, are relatively quiet. Most seem to have bought into the idea that it's worth a shot to try to win it ugly for a change (instead of coming up short with beautiful soccer).

The main ingredient to win a WC, other than talent, is luck. No matter how good you are, no luck, no cup. So you want to lower the number of games where luck is needed. In this, Holland has already been successful. It looks like their only powerful opponent on the way to the final is Brazil in the quarterfinal. Add the final and you end up with two games where at least some luck is needed.

If you have them at +800 you may want to put some on Brazil, if the two teams meet in the quarter final.

Very good analysis Dark, you are the man to talk to regarding Holland's status.

[waco66]

i hope they win

[Foals]

Ditto about VDV. He's done more harm to Netherlands' offense than anyone else. Robben could replace VDV on the left wing but he also has the tendency to drift a bit to the middle

[nobs]

Im suprised you didnt put a LOCK around the TITLE

shit you're right


**** LOCK *****

[Rig]

Where even is the Netherlands I don't even know
Noob

[DeluxeLiner]

nobs you gonna pay back my points?

[jonahdmad]

I also placed .5 unit on Holland to win the cup. I really like the way they've been playing and i'm very interest to see what happens in the next round. I also have a side bet with my brother that they will go farther than the Swiss, so I'm pulling for them with you man!

[NY Playa]

I should have taken Holland when i had the chance...they look good, but I think Argentina is the team to beat.

[lakerboy]

Holland will never win the World cup EVER

[nobs]

Holland will never win the World cup EVER

FUK Holland. Im on the Netherlands.

[mv09]

For the record, I know I said its tough - but I actually agree with you. Netherlands are my pick to win it all

[nj6]

Holland will never win the World cup EVER

Never ever? why not

[Munjoz]

i'ts time for first time

[2Bdown]

Great write-up, but the Holland futbol factory always sh*ts the bed come wc

[nobs]

Knocked out #1 today, need 2 more wins

[lukahh]

very good, you can start hedging it in semis

[nobs]

Not against Uraguray, probably in the finals if they make it that far

[sharpmoney]

Gl. Your bet is looking pretty good. Still a ways to go though.

[rthoughton]

I still have em at +1150... what i got before the thing started.

[spirta]

I am on Holland too, still think they can win world cup...

[noober]

Nobs, are u finally going to pay me the 60 point I loaned you?????????

[Dark Horse]

Now it's just a matter of not overlooking Uruguay, and flipping a coin for the final.

As to luck, none of the remaining teams could have any complaints. No luck, no cup. But Uruguay is clearly the luckiest at this point. Surviving a last second pk?! Their luck has peaked.

Holland has something in the bag that none of the remaining teams does. Turning around a deficit into a win. And they did it against Brazil! Resilience is one of the secret ingredients behind championships. (winning on pk's, as Uruguay did against Ghana, is not the same).

[nobs]

MAYBE TIME TO HEDGE NOw

[Stifler]

spain or germany will make it. Im still not impressed by one single performance from the dutchies yet.

[manidyon]

haha.. keep dreaming my friend..

[hoop22]

good luck!!!

[d1m@]

netherlands was underrated compared to other favorite WC teams, and what we have now , they are in final , so very big chances to win the cup

[nobs]

I dont even care now hedged with

SPAIN TO WIN WORLD CUP -170