Mexico-Uruguay, Draw is very unlikely result and it is certainly not a value bet

[nulldah]

The odds is only like that because people will jump ship to draw thinking both teams will qualify that way. But, will those 22 players just standing on the field?

And, does that assumption imply a win for one team will GUARANTEE other team not qualify from the group stage? I can say it is not the case.

This the rule for tie break in group stage:
1 greatest number of points in all group matches;
2 goal difference in all group matches;
3 greatest number of goals scored in all group matches;
4 greatest number of points in matches between tied teams;
5 goal difference in matches between tied teams;
6 greatest number of goals scored in matches between tied teams;
7 drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

now, the goal difference, Uruguay +3 (3-0), Mexico +2 (3-1), France -2 (0-2), South Africa -3 (0-3).

So, here is the scenario (my bad if I'm deducing wrongly):
1-0 scoreline for either team, France or South Africa need to win by 4 goals
2-0 scoreline for either team, France or South Africa need to win by 3 goals.
3-0 scoreline? Do you seriously imagine this scoreline?
This is not even considering the possibility of draw in France v South Africa. Remember, France is in mess right now and they haven't score even a goal in this world cup just like what they did in 2002.

in 2nd half, if that kind of scoreline really happens (very likely), and with France and South Africa still in draw or 1-0 game too, do you really think other team still want to attack and make it draw instead of defending and trying not to concede more, making them have less chance to qualify?

I clearly dont see any value in the odds for Draw. Clearly, the game wont be keeper - defender - defender - keeper flow...

[nulldah]

Javier Aguirre said "If as a consequence of what happens on the pitch there's a draw or a defeat and we both qualify with no major goal differences, then we'll both be happy. But I can guarantee that the Mexican side is going to go out there to try and win." So, he clearly know about this.

Not mentioning avoiding the possible matchup against Argentina and millions of eyes are on them. They certainly dont want to be disgrace to their country in next day news headlines by playing "boring" 0-0 draw.

[SoV]

And both of them will be trying to get the first place to avoid facing Argentina in the Round of 16.

[Giuvara]

Good post, Nulldah, there's no amount of value in the odds for a draw, even if it might end up this way. Trading with the max of 1.85, I am happy to lay it.

[nulldah]

Good post, Nulldah, there's no amount of value in the odds for a draw, even if it might end up this way. Trading with the max of 1.85, I am happy to lay it.

Thanks. Just try to make a note for people that it is wrong to bet on draw based on assumption draw = qualify. I noticed noone mentioning about this in any threads and I also dont find any media thinking it this way.

[Dark Horse]

There is no value in the draw, at the odds offered, but it is still a very likely result.

[Preston09]

I agree probably a good bet.

[Masu485]

took mexico pk

[Glada Tartan]

Uruguay, money back at draw @ 2,0

[bolekblues]

Mexico doesn't want to play Argentina. Whats more, the price for a win is probably as high as can be: one of the remaining teams from group B, and i dont think there's a higher discrepancy between two teams advancing from one group as this in group B. i think over 1.5 is a value bet

[Bigpete2010]

maybe ill take mexico....who is kaka-less!!!

[aceking]

bet on Mexico , draw no bet .

[nj6]

There is a reason why vegas set the draw at these kind of odds.

[nj6]

There is a reason why vegas set the draw at these kind of odds.

Or is it a trap set by vegas?

[nulldah]

There is a reason why vegas set the draw at these kind of odds.

simple reason: draw will guarantee (100%) for both teams to qualify. imagine the odds is not set at this price? are they ready for millions pump to draw at usual draw odds (2.7 - 4/+170 - +300)?

But as I try to point out, both teams are actually pretty much guarantee to qualify.

Draw is still a possibility. But, be prepared to be nervous because goals are very likely to occur..

[atval]

i will bet on mexico pk too!

[Gokhan]

i didn't check the odds but what about under 2.5?

[jon13009]

I agree. Mexico here.

[aceking]

only 1.5 goals now!

[Arsenal]

I am making a small play on no draw.

[Eleven]

I expect some solidaridad today.

[Cuse0323]

I'm staying away from this game, I like Uruguay 1-0 though but it's not worth it.

[jagaf22]

Uruguay gets it done 1-0. Charrúas are victorious!

[rav_himself]

Mexico PK (1x)
GL ALL!

[sweethook]

parlayed a few draws-

[thebertshow]

It will probably be a draw

[Cuse0323]

I'm staying away from this game, I like Uruguay 1-0 though but it's not worth it.

Instead I went with France.

[fataliz]

many people suckered in for the draw there.. game's not over though

[nulldah]

game is over once it entered 70 min with france v south africa scoreline 2-1. pity those people that still pump the draw in that condition...

Still, always a good feeling putting value bet with the odds based on wrong assumption, not to mention winning it

[nj6]

Good call.

[Socrates]

Note to everyone, Mexico doesn't do well with teams that bunker, never have. If the team has decent to great forwards, and can stay disciplined in the back, get ready to watch Mexico crumble.

Uruguay congested the hell out of the back field and it was only a matter of time before they countered with a decent serve to Suarez or Forlan.

[rumple]

Damn the Draw squares got abused in this one, reminds of all those 'fixed' Italy B games that never materialized.