WARNING Brazil/N Korea Bettors
Most of you are slamming Brazil -2, Brazil -2.5, Over 2.5 and Over 3 for the game.
All those bets are -EV in my opinion for various reasons. Of course this looks like a Brazil squashing of North Koreans but its really not. Sure Brazil might win 4-0, 5-0 etc like Germans did against Australia but the above bets are -ev in the long run.
- In the opening matches weaker teams will play not to lose, especially if they are playing the strongest opponent. This results in a very defensive game that often ends in a no scoring draw, or a low scoring win or draw. North Koreans will be fielding a very defensive formation...with most of the players in their own end of the field.
- One might think that if Brazil scores very early, N Korea will try to attack to tie the game resulting in more goals for Brazil with the loser defense for attacking N Korea. But in this situation N Korea will continue to play hard defense to keep the margin of loss to minimal. Goal difference is important for tie breakers.
- There are rumors that N Korea trained hard in secret locations and they haven't shown their full strength. Probably stupid rumor but you never know considering the state of that communist nation. Their coach on the press today said: "Our players aren't tecnicaly inferior to no one, not even to Brazil. We will beat them tomorrow as a gift to our chief in Korea". The guy was dead serious. Once again, it is probably just smack talking but N Korea is set on winning this game or at least not losing it. If Brazil comes to this game underestimating their opponent (which they will), it is not going to be a 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 result that everyone is expecting.
- The match is happening in in Johannesburg (Altitude: 1,214 m above sea level). It is a known fact that Brazillian cannot play at high altitudes. They looked paralyzed against a very poor Bolivian team in Bolivia...well that altitude is much higher (about 5000m above sea level) but still....historically Brazil has played very poorly against weak opponents at high altitude. 1200 is not that high but it is still over 1km over sea level!
So many people are adding Brazil win with -1000 to -2000 odds to all their bets a a parlay. It is worthless. If somehow this game ends in a draw lots of bankrolls will be broken. I have seen at least 4 people in various forums claiming that they put their entire bankroll on brazil win for the "surewin" microscopic return.
NO BET FOR Me because of the many factors and shitty odds. But if am forced bet i would consider NKorea +2.5, Under 3 or correct score of 0-0 draw, 1-0 and 2-0 win for brazil.
All those bets are -EV in my opinion for various reasons. Of course this looks like a Brazil squashing of North Koreans but its really not. Sure Brazil might win 4-0, 5-0 etc like Germans did against Australia but the above bets are -ev in the long run.
- In the opening matches weaker teams will play not to lose, especially if they are playing the strongest opponent. This results in a very defensive game that often ends in a no scoring draw, or a low scoring win or draw. North Koreans will be fielding a very defensive formation...with most of the players in their own end of the field.
- One might think that if Brazil scores very early, N Korea will try to attack to tie the game resulting in more goals for Brazil with the loser defense for attacking N Korea. But in this situation N Korea will continue to play hard defense to keep the margin of loss to minimal. Goal difference is important for tie breakers.
- There are rumors that N Korea trained hard in secret locations and they haven't shown their full strength. Probably stupid rumor but you never know considering the state of that communist nation. Their coach on the press today said: "Our players aren't tecnicaly inferior to no one, not even to Brazil. We will beat them tomorrow as a gift to our chief in Korea". The guy was dead serious. Once again, it is probably just smack talking but N Korea is set on winning this game or at least not losing it. If Brazil comes to this game underestimating their opponent (which they will), it is not going to be a 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 result that everyone is expecting.
- The match is happening in in Johannesburg (Altitude: 1,214 m above sea level). It is a known fact that Brazillian cannot play at high altitudes. They looked paralyzed against a very poor Bolivian team in Bolivia...well that altitude is much higher (about 5000m above sea level) but still....historically Brazil has played very poorly against weak opponents at high altitude. 1200 is not that high but it is still over 1km over sea level!
So many people are adding Brazil win with -1000 to -2000 odds to all their bets a a parlay. It is worthless. If somehow this game ends in a draw lots of bankrolls will be broken. I have seen at least 4 people in various forums claiming that they put their entire bankroll on brazil win for the "surewin" microscopic return.
NO BET FOR Me because of the many factors and shitty odds. But if am forced bet i would consider NKorea +2.5, Under 3 or correct score of 0-0 draw, 1-0 and 2-0 win for brazil.
