Educate me

[Willie Bee]

I've been to soccer games on a several levels, including a West Ham game in London many years ago and a 1994 World Cup contest in Dallas between the Dutch and Brazilians. But I remain at least 10 levels below novice when it comes to knowing which end is up as far as the game goes.

Despite the fact it's not my favorite sport, I find myself excited for the World Cup this summer. Been learning some here and there from a few of y'all down here on occasion. Also been reading some of the good stuff we've been getting on the new World Cup page at sbrforum.com. Smogs and EaglesPhan36 have been educating me a little with their blogs and via e-mail.


But now I seek some advice from SBR Soccer Nation because it would be fun to maybe win a few points with successful wagers. So here's my situation: I've got a bankroll of 500 points to wager on World Cup games.

• How would you set my single-unit wager with that beginning balance - 50, 10-point bets; 20, 25-point bets?
• How would you decide how much of the bankroll to bet through each round? A third in group stage, a third in knockout, a third after that?
• Can someone explain to me the possible advantages to betting a 'draw?'

[Karayilan9]

How did you find Upton Park Willie Bee, great atmosphere, hope it wasn't against Millwall

[mihaita666]

willie, my advice are these :
don't risk too much on the opening matches.
in the groups phase, parlay moneylines, avoid big handicaps like 1.5
risk more on the 3rd match o the groups because there are a lot of chances

That's for now...Oh, and watch as many games as you can..so you get tge main idea and see how teams play

[Smogs]

Willie, considering the amount of money that will be wagered, beware square plays. They are going to be in full force with all this 'patriotism' affecting players bets.

Agree with Mihai for the most part but i believe some 1.5 lines are excellent value, anything with Spain for instance.

Others involving England and Argentina need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Start slowly until you have confidence, but after a week you will have apretty good grasp. The knowledge on this forum is exceptional

[Karayilan9]

Willie Bee, draws are most likely in the first game or in the third game in which a draw suits one or both the teams. In the third games situations can occur that give a pick a huge edge, overs are most likely in the last game in the group stages where a win suits both teams. You have to look at the situations, match ups, line ups, managers and styles, line moves arn't very accurate in these competitions.

[mihaita666]

@ kara : danemark - sweden, 2-2, 2004....remember that ?

[Smogs]

Austria-Germany 1990, even though i was 2 yrs old at the time lol

[Slainte]

If you can't pick a ML winner for more than 10 minutes, then maybe the draw is the best pick

[ROYAJA8]

Just bet it all on Spain every game. They will win it all big willy

[thespeculator]

Just bet it all on Spain every game. They will win it all big willy

if fernando is healthy , I am totally with you on this one, they can play any style and win any style , the way they shut down russia at euro 08 was amazing

[ufuque]

You can also focus on total 2,5 markets as some teams just need a draw to qualify through the next round and they tend to slow down the game naturally

[Socrates]

Lots of research.

[pavyracer]

Went to Soldier Field in 1994 WC to see Bulgaria - Greece. Great atmosphere if you have never been to a World Cup Game.

Now as far as betting you need to study the teams and find the edge you have in each game whether this is a side or a total.

[spartangreen]

Willie, considering the amount of money that will be wagered, beware square plays. They are going to be in full force with all this 'patriotism' affecting players bets.

This is true, there will be alot of this.

England/USA over 2.5 on june 12th

[Tommy_de1st]

Apart form certain stages none team is gonna play to get a draw (unless both team need it).

[Willie Bee]

How did you find Upton Park Willie Bee, great atmosphere, hope it wasn't against Millwall

I really do not recall the other team. This was 1976, and I've had a few martini's/pints of ale since then

Went to Soldier Field in 1994 WC to see Bulgaria - Greece. Great atmosphere if you have never been to a World Cup Game.

Agree, the Brazil-Netherlands game I went to ranks among the top sporting events I've ever attended in terms of the electric atmosphere. Had no clue what to expect and it was nothing short of amazing. I was with a Geordie, a Scouser, a Persian and a Dutchman from Groot-Ammers, and it was like we were sitting smack on a dividing line between Dutch and Brazilian fans.

Thanks for the advice, feel free to offer more. I never thought about the 'draw angle' in terms of one team finding it beneficial for them.

I will have to play the patriotic bit on at least one of the Group Stage games for the USA, though probably not against England. My old girlfriend from Liverpool would never forgive me if the wager won

[jscar3]

bet on nigeria to loose every one of their matches.

[pavyracer]

I really do not recall the other team. This was 1976, and I've had a few martini's/pints of ale since then

Agree, the Brazil-Netherlands game I went to ranks among the top sporting events I've ever attended in terms of the electric atmosphere. Had no clue what to expect and it was nothing short of amazing. I was with a Geordie, a Scouser, a Persian and a Dutchman from Groot-Ammers, and it was like we were sitting smack on a dividing line between Dutch and Brazilian fans.

Thanks for the advice, feel free to offer more. I never thought about the 'draw angle' in terms of one team finding it beneficial for them.

I will have to play the patriotic bit on at least one of the Group Stage games for the USA, though probably not against England. My old girlfriend from Liverpool would never forgive me if the wager won

I went with a bunch of Greeks. In fact I met Greeks from all over the US and Canada for that game. Some of them drove all the way from Toronto. They were 2-3 thousand Bulgarian fans and the rest were Greek but Bulgaria was too much and trashed Greece 4-0. They had one of the best soccer players on that WC Stoichkov who later played for the Chicago Fire.

Here is another angle I use Willie. I try to find which team will not lose the game in my capping (not who will win the match) then place the bet accordingly on Asian handicap. Like pk, +0.5, +1 lines to safeguard against the draw.

[Tommy_de1st]

I remember when Stoichkov along with Romario were playing for Barca. That was a banker that one of them scored at least once in every league game. Those were the times

[mihaita666]

Stoicgkov is a legend. He and Hagi were two of the greatest stars from WC 94.

on topic ; I think most of the forces (england, spain, holland, argentina, brazil) are very likely to score a lot, so overs will be of great value especially in the groups phase. Also, try to follow the best scorers and bet on them to score once they have chances to win the Goalscorer Title. For example, they will be given the chance of easy goals, like penalties

[Ced's shadow]

I suggest you sir to watch carefully the first round to see what level of play all teams have, depending on what happens that first week you go on from there. As of dividing the bankroll, since it's a short tournament somewhere between 5%-7% will be just fine. Best of luck.

[Karayilan9]

@ kara : danemark - sweden, 2-2, 2004....remember that ?

These kind of matches are rigged without the need for the mob