Need help on VALUE question? for soccer

[mucho69]

im reading up on value betting and understand the concept, but i have an in-play soccer betting question regarding value. many games go to half time with 0-0, the 1.9 fav is now 2.5, does taking this bet represent great value? same game the underdog scores first , now the 1.9 fav is 3.5, does betting here at 3.5 represent great value?

would betting on a 1000 games this way where the fav is about even or better at start of game but backing them at 2.5-3.0 in-play produce profit?

im new to this, dont bash me if im not making sence, lol

[Justin7]

I understand your question perfectly clear. How did you try to solve this problem?

[toastedbread01]

You aren't making much "sence". If 2.5 and 3.5 half time lines are so rote as you described, I don't understand how they could possibly be considered "great" value? Sounds generic with you paying normal vig.

I don't bet soccer, but I seriously doubt that is any kind of significant trend.

[mucho69]

before the game starts the fav team odds are 1.9.
game goes to halftime, score 0-0.
now the odds of fav team are 2.5.
does this bet at 2.5 represent great value?

[Rush]

Of course if your getting a better line at halftime then before it started then your getting value

[FreeFall]

before the game starts the fav team odds are 1.9.
game goes to halftime, score 0-0.
now the odds of fav team are 2.5.
does this bet at 2.5 represent great value?

In a pure theory sense, the price of the fav goes up because the dog has less time to score and win.

[toastedbread01]

Of course if your getting a better line at halftime then before it started then your getting value

huh?

That's called post-hoc. No one is telling you what the half-time score will be, before you place your pre-game bet.

[toastedbread01]

In a pure theory sense, the price of the fav goes up because the dog has less time to score and win.

You do realize that 2.+ means +juice.

Replace "up" with "down" and "dog" with "fav."

[mucho69]

the idea is that if you wait and only bet at halftime when 0-0 or underdog scores first and there was a clear fav before the start, not post-hoc

my idea was that if the fav true value is 2, and you take the bet before the game because you beleive its a good play, then the undedog scores first and i bet the same bet you do but at 3, would this be considered value play

[toastedbread01]

the idea is that if you wait and only bet at halftime when 0-0 or underdog scores first and there was a clear fav before the start, not post-hoc

I don't see how the pre-game line is at all relevant to this conversation. I.e if circumstances have significantly altered, than any comparison to the pre-game line is practically moot.

I simply don't understand how that it could possibly provide value. It would seem as if almost every half-time line, some wager would fall under your criteria of "value" betting.

[toastedbread01]

the idea is that if you wait and only bet at halftime when 0-0 or underdog scores first and there was a clear fav before the start, not post-hoc

my idea was that if the fav true value is 2, and you take the bet before the game because you beleive its a good play, then the undedog scores first and i bet the same bet you do but at 3, would this be considered value play

No. You are getting "fair value". The fav "true value" might be 2 at the start, but after the first goal it is no longer a fav. My bet at that point is simply behind. Just because the original bet is behind does not mean you are getting "value" by getting better odds compared to the original bet.

[mucho69]

is there anyway to backtest this

[ZXCVBNM]

I don't understand all the numbers talk.

Favorites 0-0 at halftime in soccer is very common. Other team puts up a spirited fight, etc but more likely than not the home team will eventually score. You just have to see the stats at halftime and judge then. If the favorite has more possession and way more shots, they will most likely break through, and if they don't you can also hedge with under or draw.

[pavyracer]

I don't understand all the numbers talk.

Favorites 0-0 at halftime in soccer is very common. Other team puts up a spirited fight, etc but more likely than not the home team will eventually score. You just have to see the stats at halftime and judge then. If the favorite has more possession and way more shots, they will most likely break through, and if they don't you can also hedge with under or draw.

I agree. Throw away the numbers and statistics. If a team packs up the defense and midfield they can hold on to the 0-0 at the half and be broken down in the second half. But you can't predict when the first goal is going to be scored. It can be anythime in the first half or second half. Anyone tries to model this and come up with a system is making a fool of themselves.

[The General]

Good question for thought.

[jayc88]

do you think a wager on a nba team, who was favored by 10 pts at the start of the game and is now only -6 for the 2nd half in a tied game
will make you money in the long run ?