Eredivisie 5/2/10: NAC Breda

[Dark Horse]

The final day of play in the Eredivisie. Twente, one point ahead of Ajax, needs to win at NAC Breda. Twente has a strong 10-4-2 road record, but it is misleading. Here's why...

Twente on the road in 2010 is only 3-3-2. They have only won three of eight road games (after going 7-1-0 in the 2009 part of the present season). Most recent first:

0-1 loss at AZ
2-0 win at VVV
1-1 draw at PSV
1-0 win at RKC
2-1 win at Vitesse
0-3 loss at AJAX
0-0 draw at Utrecht
0-0 draw at Groningen

The 3 wins came against teams below .500; VVV, RKC, and Vitesse, all in the bottom half of the table. NAC is not one of those teams. In fact, NAC has everything to play for this Sunday. They can still qualify for European football next season. It doesn't hurt that their home record shows only three losses for the season. NAC at home: 8-5-3.



NAC +1 and +1.5 -141

[JOHON8]

I don't understand betting -141 on a handicap vs a powerhouse who needs a win very badly? if the odds were +ev then I think it would be worth a shot but why go through so much risk vs a team that can blow NAC out in a such an important match?

H2H Twente has a pretty impressive record vs NAC... do you have any info on players / injuries?

[Dark Horse]

I don't understand betting -141 on a handicap vs a powerhouse who needs a win very badly? if the odds were +ev then I think it would be worth a shot but why go through so much risk vs a team that can blow NAC out in a such an important match?

-141 has plenty of value to me here. It's possible that Twente will beat NAC by two goals, but if these teams played ten times in Breda, I think that would only happen once or twice. I don't see them as a powerhouse, but as a team that has only won 3 out of 8 road games in 2010.

They've never been champion, so this is a spot where they could easily choke. If they do get ahead, I could see them protecting the lead with their lives, instead of risking a goal scored against them by chasing another goal. If, on the other hand, NAC takes the lead, which is very possible, I think Twente could easily lose their heads.

[Shark79]

DH.

I will have to fade you on this game. For me its not about the stats on this game, its about what this game will represent for Twente if they win it. I think everything is in favor for Twente to take the game and the cup as well.

[Dark Horse]

I agree that this is not based on stats, but motivation. Twente has never been in this position. They had a big lead (7 or 8 points) just a month or so ago, and have been looking in the rearview mirror for weeks. So I'm not introducing a new element. They've already been choking. Now they only have the smallest of margins left, going into the final game. And it doesn't help that they've had two weeks to think about it, without playing. This is a tough road game. Ajax hasn't won here, PSV hasn't won here. People look at the table and expect a championship display. But a closeup reveals a nervous team, praying for the finish line. Also, Ajax has allegedly offered NAC a financial bonus for getting a good result.

Now I've given so many reasons that it probably will lose.

[Shark79]

lol ... well good luck with the play.