Lyon - Bayern

[pavyracer]

Lyon pk +325 (to advance to final) - 0.5 unit
Bayern pk & +0.5 -118 - 1.5 units

I don't think Bayern can qualify again with away goals rule for the third tie in a row like with Man U and Fiorentina. So they will either win or tie today or lose in OT and pk's. But in the event they lose they will not qualify. This is a bet based on the assumption Bayern will not qualify for the 3rd time in a row on away goals rule and this is why I structured this like that in terms of unit allocation.

[Shark79]

Leaning Lyon today.

[bostonbruins]

On Bayern pk , GL

[Club]

Ok, I see those bets at BetPhoenix although the odds aren't as good there (+287 and -129). What kind of score would we need to win both of these bets? Is there a way to lose both? Thanks.

[pavyracer]

Ok, I see those bets at BetPhoenix although the odds aren't as good there (+287 and -129). What kind of score would we need to win both of these bets? Is there a way to lose both? Thanks.

A draw or a Bayern win cashes the -118 bet. A two goal win by Lyon cashes the first bet. A one goal win by Lyon with Bayern scoring at least one goal loses both bets. If Lyon wins by 1-0 we go to OT and anything can happen.

There is no guarantee that both plays won't lose. If you don't want to risk a lot bet Lyon pk (+287) for a 0.25 unit because there is value in that bet.

[Club]

Ok, thanks.

[VLR100]

I don't think Bayern can qualify again with away goals rule for the third tie in a row like with Man U and Fiorentina.

Why? Gambler's fallacy? A 2-1 Lyon win is a likely enough result.
Anyone else like the over 2.5 as much as I do? Lyon HAVE to score, so I'd expect them to play with a lot more vitality than the first leg, especially as they don't have the cross continent mini van journey. Bayern on the other hand have a potent attack and seem likely to score today, Van Gaal has said he is approaching this match as if it was 0-0, they will attack. Also Bayern's 2 central defenders, who aren't stellar anyway, are major injury doubts. At odds of <+100 this is good value.
Good luck all tonight

[Joszan7]

I'm liking the over.

[Wilforth]

I think Lyon will win by 2-1 and Bayern qualifies on the away-goals rule. Leans:

Lyon ML
Bayern to qualify.

[SRBI]

Clever man - BOL to you pavy

[Wilforth]

Lyon pk +325 (to advance to final) - 0.5 unit
Bayern pk & +0.5 -118 - 1.5 units

I don't think Bayern can qualify again with away goals rule for the third tie in a row like with Man U and Fiorentina.

It could still happen though. I don't expect this series to go UNDER twice in a row. All things being equal, one would expect more than 2 goals in this game. I'd say 3. A 2-1 Lyon win means all these will cash:

Lyon ML
OVER 2.5
Bayern to qualify.

The way Bayern got to this stage suggests they'll go further.

[Dark Horse]

Bayern plays games very close. Under Van Gaal they've never lost a road game by more than 1 goal.

I was looking long and hard at Lyon as well. To win the CL at +1250; for the purpose of taking the other finalist and a guaranteed profit. But if Bayern doesn't lose by more than 1 goal, then the only score that will work for Lyon is 1-0 and extra time or pk's.

[lakerboy]

Good luck pavy.

[w3coyote]

I think Lyon will win by 2-1 and Bayern qualifies on the away-goals rule. Leans: Lyon ML Bayern to qualify.

Odds for Lyon home win are quite good, they are a good team after all. 2-1 sounds very good.

[KingKolzig]

3-1 Lyon

[Kemalettin]

im on over ! and Both teams to score

[pavyracer]

Like I said I don't think a team will get lucky 3 times in a row to win on away goals rule. In both games Bayern was down 2-0 and came back. So either Bayern comes in with all guns blazing to score a goal and kill the contest or Lyon has them on the ropes like Man U and Fiorentina did. The Lyon bet on my bets is a cover for the second bet.

[pitman]

GL pavyracer.
I'm surprised so many like the over.
I have liked the over since last night, with that said just taking the over 2.5 and going to hope for some goals.

[kmarinouofm]

i got the over 2 goals its a lot of juice but i am positive i have a push worse case scenario

[rfr3sh]

i am expecting a 1-0 type game
1-1 final score maybe

[Dark Horse]

Bayern not sharp in front of goal. Just as in the first game. With a better striker this is all over.

[mihaita666]

Lyon is ridiculous, so was Bussaka eliminating Cris

[bostonbruins]

too easy, Lyon looked like trash

[Wilforth]

too easy, Lyon looked like trash

Very easy indeed.

[pavyracer]

Congrats guys. Looks like Bayern came out with all guns blazing for this match.

[jscar3]

On Bayern pk , GL

Lyon lost the match back in Munich

[Club]

[pavyracer]

Thanks. Hope you won some.

[Club]

My original bet was Lyon pk based on another's recommendation but I changed when i saw your thread so it helped a lot. Thanks.

[bostonbruins]

Lyon lost the match back in Munich

I don't understand what this means.

[rumple]

easy winne, pleasent supriose.

[protein]

Team with no striker to score from these opportunities that Lyon had does not deserve the CL final.

[mihaita666]

I don't understand what this means.

I think he is talking about the Toulalan's suspension who resulted from his elimination in Munich