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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
July 31--- Sheriff v Shkendija
13. Shkendija/Sheriff OVER 2.5 @ 2.05/+105 (1 Unit) BetVic
Even though the 1st leg finished with as 1-0 result, I see goals here. In the 1st leg both teams combined to have 28 shots, half of which ended on goal. Form wise 4 of the last 5 games for both sides ended over 2.5. Sheriff averages 2.86 goals this young season and averaged 3.56 gpg last season. The visitors also averaged 3.56 goals per game. Even money or plus = play for me.
Europe Record Updated after 2nd qualifying round, 1st leg
13-16 +2.28 Units
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
August 1--- Basel v PAOK
14. Basel/PAOK OVER 2.5 @ 2.00/+100 (1 Unit) BetVic
Decent odds here for the over. Basel come into the match having their past six games go over. At home in the past 6 Champions League games 5 have also ended over. PAOK have had 4 of their past 5 end over. In league action PAOK average 2.60 & Basel 3.00. The 1st leg ended with a 2-1 scoreline and it looks like much of the same for the 2nd leg which Basel must chase from the start.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 2 --- TNS v Lincoln Red Imps
18. TNS/Lincoln OVER 2.5 @ 2.00/+100 (2 Units) BetVic
For all the reasons in my Europa wager #12 plus this being a second leg and getting better odds than my 1st play
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 2 --- Asteras Tripolis v Hibernain
19. Asteras ML @ 1.83/-120 (2 Units) Bet365
Asteras are unlucky to be coming home with no points after losing the 1st leg 3-2 in Scotland. They had a 2 nothing lead and lost after having Pasalidis sent off in the 2nd half. The numbers when comparing the 2 teams all point to a home victory. ELO rank 1418- 1322, transfer market value 14.6 mil to 8.5 mil & SY Int 11-7.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 2 --- Sarpsborg 08 v St. Gallen
20.Sarpsborg OVER 2.5 @ 2.01/+101 (2 Units) Marathon
A simple numbers play for me. The 1st leg ended over with a 2-1 result In league action Sarpsborg average 3.13 goals per game. St Gallen average 4.50 in the new season and 3.44 last season. Form wise 3 of the past 5 end over for the home side and 4 of the last 5 for the visitors. At home 4/5 and over and away 4/5 also end over 2.5
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 2 --- Rio Ave v Jagiellonia
21. Rio Ave ML @ 1.85/-117 (2 Units) Bet365
Rio Ave did lose the 1st leg in Poland 1-0 despite dominating the game. They had more possession, more shots on target, more corners etc. Rio ave are ranked higher in ELO ranks 1472 -1413 & have a higher Transfer market value of 15.55 mil to 13.03. Home advantage should give Rio Ave the victory.
I was looking at Sherriff and thinking about the -1. I like your thinking here DJ. Nice write upOriginally Posted by DiamondJack
BOL
Cheers
Let's start the week off right DJ!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Good Luck!!
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
August 7--- Benfica v Fenerbahce
15. Benfica ML @ 1.92/-108 (2 Units) Marathon
Benfica have faced far higher quality opposition than Fenerbahce this offseason and home advantage will be key. Numbers wise that I like ELO rank 1724 - 1667, Transfer Market Value 233 - 70. Uefa Coefficient 49.3 - 39.2, Senior & Youth Internationals 22-15. Benfica wins in every category and I'm getting a line that is close to even money have to double up on the units wagered.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
August 7--- Qarabag v BATE & Slavia Prague v Dynamo Kiev
16. Qarabag/BATE to DRAW @ 3.48/+248 (1 Unit) Marathon
17. Slavia/Dynamo to DRAW @ 3.40/+240 (1 Unit) Marathon
As teams get closer to making the group stage which equals big money for any side that does, games get more cagey. The 1st legs are like HT. Last season 5/15 1st leg matches ended level in the 1st leg of the 3rd qualifying round prior to that 8/15, 7/15 & 5/15. Last 4 years 25 of 60 games ended tied, that is 41.6%. I hope one of the two that I selected hits for a decent profit.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 9 ---
23. Jurmala/Sudova to DRAW @ 3.20/+220 (1 Unit) Bet365
24. Hibernian/Molde to DRAW @ 3.56/+256 (1 Unit) Pinnacle
25. Bratislava/Rapid to DRAW @ 3.50/+250 (1 Unit) Bet365
26. CSKA/Copenhagen to DRAW @ 3.25/+225 (1 Unit) Bet365
Once again trying to hunt for Draws in the 1st legs. I am still on holidays and wont be able to check in as often so BOL in Europe this week
You got a great line if you got ML at close to even money.
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
August 14--- BATE v Qarabag
18. BATE ML @ 2.05/+105 (1 Unit) BetVic
The 1st leg BATE won 1-0 away from home in Baku. Qarabag will be forced to open up and that should play in favour of the home side. My usuall numbers favour BATE 15.2- 11.8 in transfer value, 1534-1480 in club Elo Rank. 19.8 - 17.7 in Uefa Coefficient. Give me home advantage and even or plus money is a play in my books
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
August 14--- AEK Athens v Celtic
19. AEK PK @ 1.97/-103 (1 Unit) Marathon
AEK head home with a 1-1 result in the first leg after playing half the game with a man down after Galanopoulos was sent off in the 57 minute. Celtic had to play on Saturday vs Hearts in league action (&Lost) . AEK are more rested and have a great home record in 2018 calendar year 11 W 2D 1L.
boss--- I jumped on that line as soon as it opened
Deceptakhan---
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
August 14--- Red Bull Salzburg v Shkendija
Benfica v Fenerbahce
PAOK v Spartak Moscow
20. Salzburg/Shkendija OVER 2.5 @ 1.97/-103 (1 Unit) BetVic
21.Benfica/Fenerbahce OVER 2.5 @ 2.04/+104(1 Unit)Marathon
22. PAOK/Spartak OVER 2.5 @ 2.04/+104 (1 Unit) Marathon
Hoping the trend of 2nd legs being more open continues this round. I narrowed down this trio that had odds close to evens. My criteria was that both teams must of had an average over 2.5 goals per game last season in league play as well as form wise the majority of both home and away matches have recently gone over 2.5 goals.
BOL Dj
Our boys looked very good today. 4 - 0 and could have been much more
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 16 --- Kairat v Sigma Olomouc
27. Kairat ML @ 1.90/-111 (3 Units) Marathon
Even though Kairat dropped the 1st leg 2-0 away they were red carded in the 38 minute and were playing a man down untill the 68 minute when Veprk from Sigma was also sent off with a 2nd yellow. Kairat are a veru good team at home. Going back to 2017 they have a record of 32 Wins 1 Loss 4 Draws. Theay also managed to beat AZ last round at home a team of better quality than Sigma.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 16 --- Copenhagen v CSKA Sofia Dinamo Brest Apollon
28. Copenhagen/CSKA OVER 2.5 @ 2.01/+101 (2 Units) Paddy
29. Brest/Apollon OVER 2.5 @ 2.12/+112 (2 Units) Marathon
The 2 matches that were priced at plus money that I think have a good probability of going over. Both match ups have gone over in the 1st leg and all 4 teams average over 2.5 goals per game in their domestic leagues.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 16 --- APOEL v Hapoel Be'er Sheva
30. APOEL ML @ 2.06/+106 (2 Units) Marathon
The 1st leg between these 2 sides ended 2-2 in Israel. I do like the fact that form wise APOEL is better 7 points in past 5 games vs 5 points for Hapoel. Home advantage should also be key as APOEL have won 4 straight at home where as the visitors have only won once in their last 6 away games.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 16 --- Burnley v Istanbul BB
31. Burnley ML @ 2.29/+129 (2 Units) Marathon
I like the numbers here as well as home advantage. Transfer market value 188-53 in favour of Burnley. ELO rank 1690-1647, S&Y Internationals 14-,13, Uefa Coefficient 75-39. Burnley also impressed me on the weekend with a draw away to Southampton. Any price at plus money is value.
Will certainly be cherry picking some of these plays as well. Thanks for posting so early!
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
August 14--- BATE v Qarabag
23. BATE UNDER 2 @ 1.90/-111 (1 Unit) Pinnacle
The past 4 games for both sides only 1 game went over 2.5 and we have seen 3 nil nil outcomes. Based upon the projected lineups for todays game it really looks like a 1-0 or 2-0 result for BATE. Since i am already on the ML for BVATE and I'm not confident enough to play the correct score so I'll just play the total.
Franz--- not to jinx it but Liverpool looked really good
Boss---
CHAMPIONS LEAGUE RECORD After 3rd Round
11-11-1 +2.90 Units
Bad day for my overs.....
Waiting to pounce on some lines for next week
Thanks for posting some plays and getting me to look further into some of these games.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 23 --- APOEL v Astana
33. APOEL ML @ 2.00/+100 (2 Units) Bet365
Form wise APOEL 10 points out of the past 5 games vs 5 points for Astana. ELO Rank 1602-1479, Uefa Coefficient 18-15, TM Value 23-24. This is more of a home advantage play for me as APOEL have won 5 straight at home where as Astana have only won once on the past 5 away.
EUROPA LEAGUE RECORD After 3rd Round
12-20-0 -5.78 Units
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 23 --- APOEL v Astana
33. APOEL ML @ 2.00/+100 (2 Units) Bet365
Form wise APOEL 10 points out of the past 5 games vs 5 points for Astana. ELO Rank 1602-1479, Uefa Coefficient 18-15, TM Value 23-24. This is more of a home advantage play for me as APOEL have won 5 straight at home where as Astana have only won once on the past 5 away.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 23 --- Gent v Bordeaux
34. Gent/Bordeaux to DRAW @ 3.25/+225 (1 Unit) WillHill
Once again hunting for a 1st leg Draw, Last season in the play off round 7 of 22 games ended level in the 1st leg or 31.8%. Both teams are very much even stats wise after factoring in home advantage.
EUROPA LEAGUE
August 23 --- Partizan Belgrade v Besiktas
35. Partizan/Besiktas to DRAW @ 3.20/+220 (1 Unit) BetVic
I could repeat my reasoning from play # 34 adding the fact that Partizan are undefeated at home in Europa play this season where as Besiktas even though the stronger side did drop an away result in Austria last round. I think both sides will play not to lose first.
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