Rochdale looking good early popping two goals in the first 20 minutes.
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GL Gator, those lower leagues can be a killer sometimes,,looking goodComment -
Dagnall again! 3-0! Us Dagnalls are damn good!Comment -
Dang. Rochdale leaks a goal. 3-1 at half.
If I hit the inter/Roma draw I'm considering a play on the barca game/over.Comment -
Dagnall slams home the hat trick in the 90! 4-1.
1-0 on the day. +1.1u.Comment -
Damnit. Fn shit. Milito hits the damn post in the 95th minute.Comment -
Waiting on Twente to finish.
Something cool I noticed... In my write ups Ive mentioned 4 players specifically to score. All 4 have converted, two with hat tricks. Kind Of neat. Could count De Rossi and Dagnall too but I didn't say they would score, only talking about them scoring (and two teammates I mentioned with them didn't score. Haha).
Twente 3-0! 2-1 again today! Another +1.15 profit!!Comment -
Picks for Sunday
AJAX -2 (EVEN) 1U for 1U
AC Milan -.5 (-130) 1.3U for 1U
Santos -2 (+105) 1.05U for 1U
Velez -1 (EVEN) 1U for 1U
Parlay
Sampdoria/Napoli 1U for 1.5U.Comment -
Quick Parlay thoughts.
Sampdoria has been in great home form this season, winning 9 matches and drawing the other 5. Cagliara on the other hand is one of the worst Italian road teams, losesrs of 5 straight away.
Napoli is coming off their big 3-1 win over Juventus. Catiana has been in good form, but they arent as sharp on the road with only 2 road wins all year. THey also have a tendancy to leak goals away, giving up 23 on the year.
Sampdoria and Napoli are currently in 5th and 6th position respectively, but have a number of teams hot on their tail looking for European qualification. They will be extremely motivated to take down two lacking away sides to ensure at least Europa League play next year.Comment -
Since Ajax has already kicked off, lets focus on the later games today.
AC Milan -.5
Theres alot of factors at work here that make AC Milan the play. When it comes to Serie A, not many teams are better than Milan at the San Siro. Coming into the weekend, AC Milan led all teams with 30 home goals in 15 matches (Roma's 2 goals pushed them to 31 yesterday). Their 10 wins are tied for the 3rd best total as well. Thats the first key to this play. Secondly, Lazio is floundering near the bottom of the table, and average less than a goal a game away from home. They are not in desperation mode though, as the chances of them being relegated arent very high. The bottom three in Serie A just dont have the firepower to get out. Third, AC Milan doesnt lose to Lazio in Serie A. Since 2004 Lazio has yet to actually defeat AC Milan in league play. Earlier this year Milan topped Lazio 2-1 on the road. And finally, all the motivation lies in the hands of AC Milan. Inter's slipping at Roma leaves the door wide open to the top of Serie A and AC Milan will do everything possible to push through. A win ties them for 2nd, one point behind Inter, and a 2 goal or more win gives them goal differential over Roma for the time being.Comment -
Making a change. Upgrading both Santos and Velez to 4 unit plays, instead of 1.
For Santos, a 2 goal line shouldnt really be anything of a bother. Nobody in Brazil scores more at home, with 30 goals in just 8 games. On the other hand, Monte Azul is the second worst scoring team overal and on the road. They have yet to win a road. I dont think theres a question of whether of Santos will cover the line, but a question of how much.
Velez is only giving up a goal on the spread, which is a pretty small number on a game where the home team averages 2 per game at home and the away squad gives up 2 on the road. I love top table teams vs bottom level teams.Comment -
2-2-1 yesterday. Hit Ajax and Santos to win 5 units. Pushed on Velez, Lost AC Milan and the Italian parlay to finish off +3.2U for the day.
All 1U favorite plays today.
Cambuur Leeuwarden -2 (EVEN)
1. FC Kaiserslautern -1 (-120)
Athletic Bilbao -½ (-110)
Newcastle United -1 (EVEN)Comment -
Cambuur Leeuwarden -2 (EVEN). Winner 8-1
1. FC Kaiserslautern -1 (-120). Winner 4-0
Athletic Bilbao -½ (-110) winner 4-3
Newcastle United -1 (EVEN) Winner 2-0
Perfect 4-0 day!!Comment -
Cardiff City -.5 (+105) and over 2.5 (+120).Comment -
Very well done yesterday - clean sweep - may your luck continue my friend!
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Another perfect day. 2-0 and +2.25U thanks to Cardiff City and their 2-1 victory!!Comment -
Thank you sir. I had been meaning to throw you acouple points for being the first person to pop your head in here, so here you go. Thanks for the love.
The last few days have been very good for the overall record. 6 straight victories bring the overall total to 21W - 16L - 4D. +13.02U since the beginning of the thread too. 12.95 of those units coming over the last 7 days.
POsitive Run Streak.
03/24/10 +.2U (2W-2W-1D)
03/25/10 +1U (1W-0L)
03/26/10 +1.15U (2W-1L)
03/27/10 +1.15U (2W-1L)
03/28/10 +3.2U (2W-2L-1D)
03/29/10 +4.0U (4w-0L)
03/30/10 +2.25U (2W-0L)
+12.95U 15W-6L-2D
One of the things Ive been trying to preach to myself is money management. With that said, theres no reason to drop all this profit on games Im not confident on. With that said, I'm studying the games and seeing if theres anything worth playing. Right now Im not really comfortable with any of the possible plays.Comment -
Hoping to keep the streak going.
Hibernian vs. Dundee United Over 2½ (+115) 1U to win 1.15U.Comment -
As I posted in the other thread I made, I placed these bets last night
Suwon ML +400 Risk 28.97U to win 115.88U WIN
Henan ML +900 Risk 3.33U to win 29.97U LOSS
Suwon/Henan Draw +400 Risk 6.25U to win 25.00U LOSS
Just caught an error on the book and pounced on it. Id love to count a nice +115U profit in here, but I think Im going to choose not to. I placed the bet at 5:29AM on a 5:30AM kickoff and made no mention of it in here till now.Comment -
ACouple of live bets to throw on too.
Inter/CSKA Moscow Over 1 1H 1.15U to win 1U
Arsenal/Barca Over 1 1H 1.38U to win 1U.
to go along with Hibernian vs. Dundee United Over 2½Comment -
2H Inter -1 +240 1UComment -
Hibernian/Dundee OVER 2.5 WIN. (3rd goal scored in 26th minute)
Inter/CSKA 1H over LOSS
Arsenal/Barca Over 1 LOSS
-1.38U so far.Comment -
So I end up 1-3 and -2.38U for the day. I accidently selected beating the handicap at -1, not the point spread at -1, which led to the inflated odds and a miss on Inter. Thats exactly what I get for posting the fact I had a 7 day positive streak going. Another learning lesson. Before it was play my hunches, and now its dont play shit unless its a hunch. I loved the Scottish over, but i should have stayed the hell away from the UCL (as i posted earlier, its a money trap).
FC Nordsjælland +280
First play comes from Denmark. FC Nords has been on some decent form, avoiding a loss for the last 4 games, including a win over the league's top team on the road. This game is actually available at +.5 for odds around -130, but I'm feeling froggy (look at my avatar, then laugh) and I think they can come through with the straight win. Nords has won the previous two contests, both at home fairly easily. While the road brings new challenges, Nords could sweep the season series, flipping last year's result when they dropped all 3 contests.
Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid Over 3 (+110)
Theres a simple reason why this is an over play here. 5 of the last 6 games have beaten over 3. These are two teams who love to open up the attack when the other team is willing to do the same. Looking at the last round, both teams faced opponents who were willing to slow the game down on the road, play for the tie and move on. When both Valencia and Atletico went away, the game opened up and their attacking brand of soccer led to over plays for both squads. Both teams rank in the top 5 in league scoring, which is rarely a relevant statistic in cup soccer. Expect to blast past 3. 5-6 goals perhaps.
Corinthians -1½ (EVEN)
Giving up goals have been good to me recently, provided they fit two criteria. Top table vs Bottom, and the favorite is at home. Both criteria are satisfied by the Brazilians. Corinthians currently sit atop their Copa Libertadores standings with 7 points, while Cerro reside at the bottom. Corinthians also grabbed a 1-0 away win vs Cerro, which is always a good sign when things travel back home. Looking for a 2 or 3 goal victory.
Just a few thoughts for the blog post.
Without Cesc Fabregas, count Arsenal out of just about everything they have left to play for. His injury does indeed show what adrenaline can do to someone. He didn’t magically injure his leg trying to grab the ball out of the back of the net. That injury occurred during the tackle. Its amazing how youre able to block out the pain because of concentration or other factors for moments, until the wave comes on. I had a toenail ripped off completely once, and I remember looking down and not feeling a thing, just kind of in shock at the fact my nail was now sitting NEXT to my toe. I cleaned it, poured hydrogen peroxide on it, bandaged it and laughed. Until about 20 minutes later when the throbbing pain left me unable to walk and the thought of hydrogen peroxide now sends chills down my spine. Anyhoo, back to Cesc. He’s one of my favorite players, and it speaks to Spain’s depth in the midfield that they really arent going to miss the Arsenal skipper at the World Cup. But it is sad for Cesc to have to miss out on the competition more than likely. You never want to see that for anyone, especially players you like.Comment -
I really like your analysis and thoughts gator, just a question. For the Suwon game, can you briefly explain how you found the error from the book? I'm trying to learn how to catch an error like you did. Thanks.Comment -
The way of finding them is pretty simple, its actually catching them thats the hard part.
The way I personally look up games is to check ESPN, or soccerway or any game listing site a day or two beforehand to get an idea of the leagues and matchups. I can get some insight and take some notes on what games might catch my attention if I the price is right, but the best thing it does is streamline things when I goto the book. Since I know what leagues are playing, I can just go straight to those pages and look for the best odds.
Whenever that stage is finished, its simply time to look for line value. I dont care about looking for a specific team or league, I'm just looking for EVEN odds or better. This involes simply going through the book's sections every once in awhile (maybe once or twice a day, and early in the morning when lines are generally posted is good timing). The goal is to find the risk free bet, or the closest thing to it. A 2 side wager (like an over under) at EVEN or better for each side. A 3 side wager (HW, AW, Draw) with each at +200 or better. Its tough, because you're basically in search of human error, but you might be amazed at what you find. People screw up all the time though. Over the past week/week and a half I've found the Suwon game, an over/under of 105, a game said to start 12 hours before actual kick, and a game that was completed but was listed as playing 5 hours later. Just constantly check the lines and see what you can catch. Even if you cant find the perfect risk free bet, searching this way will find you some great plus odds that you wouldnt have considered otherwise.Comment -
One more to add
FC Zurich vs. FC St. Gallen Over 3 (EVEN)Comment -
Crappy start with Nords losing 1-0. I hate taking road teams, especially after they lose.Comment -
0-2 and Valencia/Atletico 0-0 at half.
Who'd I piss off?Comment -
4 goals in 25 minutes!!Comment -
1-3 yesterday.
(4064) Morecambe FC -½ (+115)*1u
(4020) Exeter City vs. (4021) Colchester United Over 2½ (+110) 1U
(7344) West Bromwich Albion -1 (EVEN)*Fri@11:15am 1u
(9294) Sporting Lisbon vs. (9295) Rio Ave Over 2½ (+125)*2U
(9292) Nacional Madeira vs. (9293) Leixoes Over 2½ (+125)*Fri@1:00p 2UComment -
3-2, +1.65Comment -
Todays winnings get me back past +10 units. Hope for a big day tomorrow for everyone.Comment -
1U a piece.
(4068) AFC Bournemouth -½ (-120) Sat@9:00a
(9296) Pacos Ferreira vs. (9297) Belenenses Lisbon Over 2½ (+125) Sat@10:00a
(7302) Rangers -2 (+110) Sat@9:00a
(9278) Heerenveen -1½ (+115) Sat@1:45p
(7350) Doncaster Rovers FC -½ (-130) Sat@9:00a
(4134) FC Union Berlin vs. (4135) Karlsruher SC Over 2½ (+105) Sat@6:00aComment -
I really like the Doncaster Rovers pick but decided not to play it because there was too much juice on the line.
Good luck with all your bets.Comment -
And....Doncaster makes me look like a fool for playing the juice. -1.85U on the day, 2-4 total.Comment
