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  • GatorTD
    SBR Sharp
    • 02-13-10
    • 453

    #1
    Gator's Bets
    Allright, so after browsing through..Im going to put my own stamp on my picks here and let you guys laugh and laugh at my tomfoolery. Lets start with an all-England card for now. To give you guys a quick idea, I tend to run through and tentatively play 1 unit on any play that catches my eye, then check previews, injuries, stat trends to determine whether to drop the play, raise the bet amount, or keep it as is.

    Saturday 03/20

    EPL
    1. Everton -1, 3.75 to win 3
    My strongest feeling, and thus my biggest bet. Everton will cover the loss of Donovan's loan with returning their best attacker from injury. The Toffees also can boast 6 wins vs Bolton in their last 10 matches, and have won 3 straight at Goodison. Bolton has been horrible scoring goals on the road, being shut out in 5 of 6 games, and they havent been any better defensively. 8 goals allowed in the last 3 away contests. 2-0 or 3-0, unless Bolton implodes.

    Sunderland/Birmingham City UNDER 2.5, 1.55 to win 1
    The only reason why this play isnt higher is the juice I'm having to pay to get it. Both squads have recorded more unders than overs this year, and 8 of the last 10 matches have ended going under the total. I definately see this game going as a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw.

    Arsenal -2, 1 to win 1.15
    Arsenal/West Ham OVER 2.5, 1.75 to win 1
    Arsenal have been on fire, winning 5 straight since losing to Porto, and have scored at least 2 goals in every match. The Hammers were the whipping boy of Chelsea and Man Utd by 3 goals, and Id expect the exact same to happen here. Bendtner has been on fire, and the Gunners return Fabregas for this match. Im even risking the horrible juice on the over due to the hilarity of the fact a stop sign could beat Sol Campbell.

    Championship
    Newcastle -.5, 1.2 to win 1
    Newcastle and Bristol City battled to a draw at St. James the first time so the common sense conclusion would be Newcastle would struggle to get a point away right? Maybe not. Newcastle was just damn unlucky clanging the woodwork 3 times, and having the referee waive off 3 fouls that could have sent the Toon Army to the spot. Things wont be so fortunate for Bristol City this time around.

    West Brom -1, 1.35 to win 1
    Not really much to say other than West Brom scores 2 goals a game at home, and Preston gives up 2 a game. Always a good thing when you get a top table team against a bottom table team and still get a 1-goal win push. The over 2.5 is a good play as well, but I'm taking the extra .15 unit juice and keeping it in my pocket.
  • GatorTD
    SBR Sharp
    • 02-13-10
    • 453

    #2
    1-1-1 on the early 3 games. +1.45 units. Not a bad start eh?
    Comment
    • GatorTD
      SBR Sharp
      • 02-13-10
      • 453

      #3
      -.3. Damn phony red card.

      1u on Roma
      1u on inter/palermo draw.
      Comment
      • SRBI
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 10-20-09
        • 8393

        #4
        Roma/Udinese under 2.5 is my lean, good luck hope Roma cashes for you!
        Comment
        • GatorTD
          SBR Sharp
          • 02-13-10
          • 453

          #5
          I like that play, especially with the people Roma have suspended. I do expect Vucinic to nab one though. Best of luck to you sir!!
          Comment
          • SRBI
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 10-20-09
            • 8393

            #6
            Originally posted by GatorTD
            I like that play, especially with the people Roma have suspended. I do expect Vucinic to nab one though. Best of luck to you sir!!
            Vucinic is my 3rd cousin, I told him to keep the ball away from the inside of net
            Comment
            • GatorTD
              SBR Sharp
              • 02-13-10
              • 453

              #7
              Mirko is not a family man is he?

              At half I took a big chance on Inter not losing. 5u at +140 for a draw and 3.33U on inter to win at +150
              Comment
              • GatorTD
                SBR Sharp
                • 02-13-10
                • 453

                #8
                Perfect through Serie A (not counting the inter ml hedge bet).

                Roma -130 win 1u
                inter draw +215 1u win 2.15u
                inter live draw 5u +140 win 7
                inter live ml 3.33u +150 lose 3.33

                total today. 4-3-2 +6.82u.
                Comment
                • GatorTD
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 02-13-10
                  • 453

                  #9
                  Argentinos juniors -.5 1.2u to win 1u.
                  Comment
                  • GatorTD
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 02-13-10
                    • 453

                    #10
                    Final plays from down Mexico way

                    Morelia -1 1.10u to win 1
                    Atlas -.5 1.15u to win 1


                    Edit. Atlas was -.5 not 1.5 sorry.
                    Comment
                    • TurkzZ
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-07-09
                      • 4095

                      #11
                      BOL on those plays bro
                      Forward points to Karayilan, i am unable to receive SBR points
                      Comment
                      • GatorTD
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 02-13-10
                        • 453

                        #12
                        Effing poo. Id assume the number of bets you lose when the team your backing picks up a red card has to be in the 75 percent plus range. That number has to go higher when its the damn keeper that goes off.
                        Comment
                        • TurkzZ
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-07-09
                          • 4095

                          #13
                          yh that stuff sucks, no matter how ever well you cap a game its impossible to account for red cards, bad ref calls, stuff like that we just gota take
                          Forward points to Karayilan, i am unable to receive SBR points
                          Comment
                          • SRBI
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 10-20-09
                            • 8393

                            #14
                            Originally posted by GatorTD
                            Mirko is not a family man is he?

                            At half I took a big chance on Inter not losing. 5u at +140 for a draw and 3.33U on inter to win at +150
                            I guess Mirko didnt like my sisters Burek. He scored a hat-trick.

                            Nice hit on that draw btw
                            Comment
                            • GatorTD
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 02-13-10
                              • 453

                              #15
                              Well...Acouple of crappy Mexican picks left us at +3.37 which isnt the worst day ever.

                              Scottish Cup
                              Rangers -1.5 (-115) 2.30U to win 2
                              Big fan of Rangers in this spot. They want the double and with the cushion in the league standings they dont need to worry about resting anyone to save their league season. St Mirren isnt that good to begin with, especially when they have to play these guys.

                              EPL
                              Fulham PK (+110) 1 to win 1.1
                              Taking this play based on line movement. Overnight I caught it at +130 while City was a PK at -180 but stayed away due to the hangover effect of the Europa League victory. City, both under Hughes and Mancini have been horrible away from Manchester. The Over 2.5 is at +120 and Im still considering that. I think it would be a nice Hedge as if City wins I see a 2-1 scoreline.

                              Championship
                              Cardiff City -.5 (-150) 1.5 to win 1
                              Quite afew people have this play and I have to say Im tailing it as well. This is all you need to know about this match and Watford. 'Boss Malky Mackay has no other injury worries as his side go in search of a first away win in five months.'
                              Comment
                              • GatorTD
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 02-13-10
                                • 453

                                #16
                                1-2 -2.30 today. Damn

                                +1.07 through the past two days.
                                Comment
                                • GatorTD
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 02-13-10
                                  • 453

                                  #17
                                  Allright. Time to go back at it following Sunday's sucky day.

                                  Scunthorpe/Peterborough OVER 2.5 (EVEN) 1U to win 1.
                                  Two of the Championships worst teams and nobody gives up more goals than these two. 2 of their last 3 games have ended with 3 goals, including Peterborough's 3-0 win this season. 6 of Scunthorpe's last 8 games have gone over 3 goals, and with them just on the outside of the relegation zone, they are going to want to push the tempo and score quickly to open the game up. I think theres huge value in getting even money out of this bet because of the fact its two teams at the bottle of the table who give up the goals like a virgin on prom night.
                                  Comment
                                  • GatorTD
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 02-13-10
                                    • 453

                                    #18
                                    Couple parlays to have some fun

                                    Nottingham Forest
                                    Colchester United
                                    Rotherham Unted
                                    1U to win 3.87

                                    Nottingham Forest
                                    Colchester United
                                    Rotherham Unted
                                    Notts County
                                    Newcastle
                                    Werder Bremen
                                    1U to win 29.69
                                    Comment
                                    • Wilforth
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 05-10-08
                                      • 16309

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by GatorTD
                                      Couple parlays to have some fun

                                      Nottingham Forest
                                      Colchester United
                                      Rotherham Unted
                                      1U to win 3.87

                                      Nottingham Forest
                                      Colchester United
                                      Rotherham Unted
                                      Notts County
                                      Newcastle
                                      Werder Bremen
                                      1U to win 29.69
                                      Bremen could spoil your second parlay.
                                      Comment
                                      • GatorTD
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 02-13-10
                                        • 453

                                        #20
                                        Yep. I've been reading up on that one. But I think they can do it
                                        Comment
                                        • GatorTD
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 02-13-10
                                          • 453

                                          #21
                                          Welp.. Missed both the parlays, but not a big deal. Crushed the Over with a 4-0 Scunthorpe win!

                                          Note to betting self.. Whenever you go to post a play, play your damn hunches. Missed 3 effing games that I was feeling really good on because I didnt take it. Damn me.
                                          Comment
                                          • GatorTD
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 02-13-10
                                            • 453

                                            #22
                                            Wednesday the 24th.. 1U each

                                            Portsmouth/Chelsea Over 3 +110

                                            Blackburn/Birmingham over 2.5 +110

                                            Cardiff/Sheffield United over 2.5 +105

                                            Celtic -1.5 EVEN

                                            Schalke PK +115
                                            Comment
                                            • GatorTD
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 02-13-10
                                              • 453

                                              #23
                                              2-2-1. +.2u
                                              Comment
                                              • GatorTD
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 02-13-10
                                                • 453

                                                #24
                                                Atletico Madrid -.5 (-105)
                                                vs Athletic Bilbao
                                                *
                                                Atletico is a crazy team, and generally that doesnt exactly create some of the best betting guarentees, but it does sometimes get you a good line.* Despite the league standings, I dont see how Atletico doesnt get a full goal line at the Calderon.* Despite their shortcomings this year, they have beaten 3 of the Top 5.* Barca, Valencia, and Sevilla all took losses.* Mallorca needed a missed penalty and a 90th minute goal to earn a draw, and Real Madrid was the only team to break them with a 3-2 win.* Atletico is 5-1 at home in the new year with 3 wins in a row (and both over a Top 3 opponent).* On the other side of it, Bilbao has strugged on the road.* They havent won a road match since December and only once have they managed to score more than one goal.* While they do have to goto the Bernabeu in the next match, the 4-1 whipping they took at Mallorca should keep them focused.** They are only 8 points away from a Europa League spot, and 13 away from a UCL qualifying spot.* Longshots, but if anyone can do it..its going to be the same squad that took 18 points from their last 6 matches so they definately still have reason to focus. And finally, Sergio Aguero returns from card suspension.* I dont see Bilbao matching up with him and Forlan up front this time around, and I wouldnt be shocked to see them both grab a goal a piece.
                                                Comment
                                                • GatorTD
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 02-13-10
                                                  • 453

                                                  #25
                                                  Atletico 2-0 with goals by both Forlan and Aguero!

                                                  1-0 +1U!

                                                  9-12-3 since posting plays. +1.27U.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • GatorTD
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 02-13-10
                                                    • 453

                                                    #26
                                                    I'll have write ups posted alittle bit later, as well as a pick or two more and maybe a parlay.

                                                    Sporting Lisbon -.5 (+105)

                                                    Bochum/Frankfurt Over 2.5 (-115)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • GatorTD
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 02-13-10
                                                      • 453

                                                      #27
                                                      One final play. German 2.
                                                      MSV Duisburg -1 (+120)
                                                      Comment
                                                      • GatorTD
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 02-13-10
                                                        • 453

                                                        #28
                                                        Since the Ger 2 game is underway here's the first two writeups so you guys can fade or play.

                                                        *
                                                        VfL Bochum v Eintracht Frankfurt Over 2.5

                                                        Theres a couple reasons why this game could go way over the total. Maybe even in the 4-5 goal range plus. Both teams value these 3 points, and this should open the game quite a bit. Frankfurt is currently 8th and 6 points away from 6th place. 6th in Germany this year guarantees a Europa League place thanks to the results of the German Cup. On the other end of the spectrum, Bochum finds themselves in a slide that sees them 4 points away from relegation. 3 points at home would be huge for them and would set them up almost perfectly for another season in the BundesLiga. Bochum would gladly take a draw, but Frankfurt will be pushing early and it wouldn't be a shocker to see them push across the first goal within 20 minutes. After that, Bochum will be chasing hardcore and leave themselves wide open. Bochum simply bleeds goals at home. They've given up an average of 2 a game and 8 of their 13 home games have ended with 3 goals or more. Bochum's last 3 games have ended with 5 goals, while the last 4 for Frankfurt have ended with 3 or more. Both squads also cracked 3 goals in their firs matchup this season.

                                                        Maritimo v Sporting Lisbon

                                                        Sporting return to action after more than a week's break from their 2-2 home draw to Atletico Madrid. Sporting is in fine form having last lost in both league and overall play in the beginning of February, a string of 7 straight matches overall. 4 of those are league wins, including 2 coming over top 5 competition. While I'm normally not a fan of taking games on the road, nobody leaks less goals on the road than Lisbon. Maritimo havent scored a victory since Feb 7th and have just two wins overall in the new year. Sporting has won 5 of the last 6 matches head to head, with the 6th match ending in a draw.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bostonbruins
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 04-02-08
                                                          • 3272

                                                          #29
                                                          GL , man I'm on that over too
                                                          Comment
                                                          • GatorTD
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 02-13-10
                                                            • 453

                                                            #30
                                                            MVS Duisburg knocks in 4 second half goals to win 4-1!!

                                                            +1.2u today so far.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • GatorTD
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 02-13-10
                                                              • 453

                                                              #31
                                                              Bochum/Frankfurt hits! 2-0 so far!

                                                              Sporting equalizes in the 36th minute. 1-1. Come on 3-0!!!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • GatorTD
                                                                SBR Sharp
                                                                • 02-13-10
                                                                • 453

                                                                #32
                                                                2-1 +1.15u.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • GatorTD
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 02-13-10
                                                                  • 453

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Yesterday 2-1 +1.15
                                                                  To Date 11-13-3 +2.42

                                                                  Only missed Lisbon yesterday, finishing 2-1. For today’s selections I’m looking for quite afew goals, plus a draw from the two top Italian teams.

                                                                  Twente Enschede -2 (+105)
                                                                  Dutch Eredivisie (1) Holland - Eredivisie - Point Spread
                                                                  Sat@2:45p 90 minutes + injury time.

                                                                  Lets first start in the Netherlands with league leaders Twente. Twente top the Dutch’s top division with 71 points, 4 points ahead of Ajax. Twente are one of three teams currently unbeaten at home sporting 14 wins and 1 draw. That one draw came on the opening home match of the season. Speaking of first games of the season, Twente first took on Sparta in the opening contest, winning 2-0. Twente was dumped out of the Dutch Cup, and will definitely be looking to pad their lead on Ajax. Sparta has been horrible on the road, failing to win in their last 5 road contests. The two reasons why Twente can and will cover the 2 goal spread is their 3 to 1 goal ratio at home, coupled with the almost 3 to 1 goals allowed to scored by Sparta on the other side. The other is Bryan Ruiz, who tops the club with 19 goals and will be looking to blast through the 20 barrier in front of the home fans.


                                                                  Rochdale -1½ (+110)
                                                                  Today's Other Leagues England League Two - Point Spread
                                                                  Sat@10:00a 90 minutes + injury time.
                                                                  This is once again a matchup of the division’s top squad against a lower tiered team. Nobody scores more than Rochdale, tallying over 70 goals with almost 40 at home. Grimsby is one of the worst in League Two, carrying a -22 goal differential. Rochdale do it with a talented tandem up front of Chris O’Grady and Chris Dagnall (my namesake actually) who have scored 37 goals between them in what will take Rochdale to League One next season. The last time these two teams met, Rochdale was a 2-0 victor on the road.


                                                                  AS Roma vs. Inter Milano Draw +210
                                                                  Italy Serie A Italy Serie A - Moneyline
                                                                  Sat@12:00p 90 minutes + injury time.

                                                                  Finally, Im going back to Serie A, which honestly I feel like I might be the best at picking. Then again maybe that’s just because I focus mainly on Inter, AC Milan, and Roma. Whatever. Last weekend I was able to call Inter’s draw, and Im hoping to do it again. Jose Mourinho’s counter attacking philosophy has topped Serie A but it sometimes makes me wonder how the hell its even possible. But then I realize Roma pretty much plays the same way, relying on the strength of the set pieces of Riise and De Rossi. Because of this, I expect a lot of the same during this season’s earlier 1-1 draw. Both teams are so entrenched in the counter attack to give some very special attacking players plenty of room, that space will be limited in the attacking halves, and a result either way may very well come down to a penalty kick. Inter would definitely have no problem taking a draw here, as the point would come very very handy in their race to keep hold on the Serie A title. I will note the last time Inter came to Olympico, they won 4-0, so if you were looking for a spot to hedge the draw, a PK bet on Inter might be in order.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • GatorTD
                                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                                    • 02-13-10
                                                                    • 453

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Updated post with thoughts on each matchup
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bostonbruins
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 04-02-08
                                                                      • 3272

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Nice writeups , GL
                                                                      Comment
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