Gargamel's dugout discussion

[Gargamel]

FC Zwolle @ 1.72 LOSS
Caen -1 @ 2.14 LOSS
Nimes @ 2.05 WIN
USA women @ 1.61 WIN
Live: Sweden women OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 WIN
Schalke v Dortmund OVER 2.5 @ 2.1 WIN

26/2
4-2 +1.26 u

Total
40-31. +6.59 u

[Sportslover]

Thanks a lot Sportslover. Not many people visit my thread, so I'm glad you did.

USA scored a late winner for me to get off to a 2-0 start of the day. I think there is often good value to be found in women's football. Unfortunately I don't know the leagues very well, but when the national sides play I try to place a bunch of bets. Hope the day continues in this good way.

Your welcome Gargamel.

I have to admit that I don't know a lot about women's football but its good to see you cashing on these plays.
Congrats on a winning day in the soccer.

[Gargamel]

Thanks Sportslover. I'm going away on a weekend in Stockholm tomorrow so I have to place my weekend bets right now. I'll be back Sunday evening. I'll play a card where I rely heavily on Barcelona.

Using my free bet thing for a large play again. I've used it twice before and made a nice profit. I feel nervous betting these large plays, but since it's a free bet (refunded if I lose) I'm using it to build up my bankroll by playing some favourites which still gives a healthy increase. As usual: 1 unit unless other is stated.

----------------------------
27/2

Parlay: Barcelona, Real Madrid @ 1.52 5u
Barcelona -1 EH @ 1.53
Parlay: Liverpool, Milan @ 1.81
Parlay: Burnley +0, Olympiakos -1 @ 1.95
----------------------------

[fedtpels]

good luck - will be looking in here once in a while

[Gargamel]

I think you should, fedtpels! And thanks.

I've learned much since I came here and I appreciate all feedback I can have. Good luck to you too.

[Gargamel]

I'll play one more tonight. Veron and Boselli miss out, and Estudiantes come off a poor performance in Peru. Boca will have the more motivation, and I want to cheer Riquelme on once again. What a legend. There is absolutely no other player like him. So slow, and so delicate in his passing.

Boca Juniors @ 2.2 LOSS

Injury time equaliser. Absolutely gutted

[Smogs]

Good luck dude, hopefully you come from your weekend away with even more cash

[Gargamel]

Thanks a lot Smog. It's great that you popped in here. I've had more visitors today than the last week combined. I'm over the moon.

Oh, and thanks for the Burnley idea. I got it from you but added the +0 as I'm not too confident on them.

Best of luck for the weekend!

[Smogs]

Thanks a lot Smog. It's great that you popped in here. I've had more visitors today than the last week combined. I'm over the moon.

Oh, and thanks for the Burnley idea. I got it from you but added the +0 as I'm not too confident on them.

Best of luck for the weekend!

BOL to us both then - i think worst case scenario is a horror error from Burnley to allow the draw, i just cannot see Pompey doing well in this game without help from mistakes

[Gargamel]

Good evening everybody. Home and safe from my weekend. Time to sum up my weekend bets. Made a nice little profit which I'm happy with considering I placed the bets early and hadn't enough info to do better than this.


Parlay: Barcelona, Real Madrid @ 1.52 5u WIN
Barcelona -1 EH @ 1.53 LOSS
Parlay: Liverpool, Milan @ 1.81 WIN
Parlay: Burnley +0, Olympiakos -1 @ 1.95 LOSS
----------------------------
27-28/2
2-2 + 1.41u

Total
42-34 +7 u

[Gargamel]

Not sure how big my card will be today, but I can see myself tailing some of the hot shots around here and also playing a few Algarve Cup games. Finland +0.5 @ 1.9, as well as possibly Portugal ladies @ 1.7. Will be back later with my definite card.

[Gargamel]

My first play of the day is a Scandinavian friendly, starting in 30 minutes. I know friendlies are hard to predict and I might lose this one badly but I think the odds are good so I'll give it a shot.

Trelleborg are without 10 players. Admittedly of different qualities, but their squad will be made out of lots of youngsters. Nordsjälland are really not Real Madrid of the 50s but for any odds over 2 I think this is a good play.

----------------------------
1/3

Nordsjälland @ 2.2 LOSS
Hapoel Bnei Lod @ 1.93 WIN
Live: Singapore Armed Forces v Sengkang Punggol OVER 2.5 @ 1.61 WIN
Live: Sweden women v USA women DRAW @ 3.10 0.5u LOSS
Parlay: Germany women, Cambuur, AEL Limassol @ 2.41 WIN
Live: Germany women -3 EH @ 2.1WIN
Metz v Le havre DRAW @ 3.2 LOSS
Live: Germany women v China women OVER 4.5 @ 2.2 WIN
Eindhoven +0 @ 2.025 WIN
----------------------------

[pocognoli]

Soccer ain't an easy sport and you are keeping a nice record until now. I am portuguese but I will be going with Austria +0.5 , and Romenia -2.5 against Faroe Islands. Here in Portugal we don't have much faith in womens football.

[Gargamel]

Soccer ain't an easy sport and you are keeping a nice record until now. I am portuguese but I will be going with Austria +0.5 , and Romenia -2.5 against Faroe Islands. Here in Portugal we don't have much faith in womens football.

Hi mate. I like the Romania -2.5 play. Might do that as well. And perhaps I'll stay away from Portugal then if you don't think they're good. I don't know a great deal about them but I think there is generally good value in the women's football if you know a bit.

Perhaps the OVER in the Norway/Iceland game.

[Gargamel]

This is a blind tail but I've been very lucky with Spartangreen earlier. Let's keep that up.

Hapoel Bnei Lod @ 1.93

EDIT: Seems like the Nordsjälland game was called off. Not 100% sure yet though.

EDIT2: Bet365 did something really fishy there. Hapoel odds were set at 2, but just as I wanted to place my bet they slashed them to 1.75. So I went to another site and got the play at odds 1.93. Now, just as the game started bet365 changed the odds back again to 2.25.

Is it common that they do stuff like this? They almost fooled me on 0.5 difference there.

[Gargamel]

Live: Singapore Armed Forces v Sengkang Punggol OVER 2.5 @ 1.61 WIN

EDIT: Good start to the day, week and month with a healthy 2-0. Long may it continue.

[Gargamel]

Think I might take a punt on the draw in Metz - Le Havre at about 3.20 later on. Metz have lost some form and Le Havre can't afford to lose this one in their fight for promotion. There is of course a fair chance that Metz will win but at these odds I think this is a good spot for a rare draw play from my side.

EDIT: Stayed away from the Algarve Cup games I mentioned above, but just took a small live play on the draw between Sweden and USA. Don't feel that comfortable about it so made it half a unit.

Live: Sweden women v USA women DRAW @ 3.10 0.5u LOSS

[Gargamel]

I'll throw in a favourite parlay as well. Don't know how good this is but as no sane person would tail me anyway I'll take the shot for some excitement.

Parlay: Germany women, Cambuur, AEL Limassol @ 2.41

EDIT: Blah, seems the Nordsjälland game was not cancelled after all and they threw away a 2-1 lead in the last ten minutes to lose 2-3. Serves me right for playing these stupid pre-season friendlies.

[Gargamel]

Live: Germany women -3 EH @ 2.1WIN
Metz v Le havre DRAW @ 3.2
Live: Germany women v China women OVER 4.5 @ 2.2 WIN

[Gargamel]

I might be pushing it too far with the last live bet on Germany women, but they are battering China. 11-0 in corners, score 3-0 and half an hour to go. I think there's more to come.

EDIT: Germany scored the 5-0 goal in the third minute of overtime to cash both plays for me. About 17-0 in corners. Good value in women's soccer as usual, as it's not as hard to predict the batterings as in men's soccer.

[Gargamel]

Time to sum the day up.

----------------------------
1/3

Nordsjälland @ 2.2 LOSS
Hapoel Bnei Lod @ 1.93 WIN
Live: Singapore Armed Forces v Sengkang Punggol OVER 2.5 @ 1.61 WIN
Live: Sweden women v USA women DRAW @ 3.10 0.5 u LOSS
Parlay: Germany women, Cambuur, AEL Limassol @ 2.41 WIN
Live: Germany women -3 EH @ 2.1WIN
Metz v Le havre DRAW @ 3.2 LOSS
Live: Germany women v China women OVER 4.5 @ 2.2 WIN
Eindhoven +0 @ 2.025 WIN
----------------------------

Very good day considering it was a small and difficult card. The favourite parlay paid off well and the live plays on the German ladies both did the job. First time over +10 units since I started. I'm still a million miles away from most cappers on here but I'm learning. Perhaps I'll add a night play before I go to bed.


1/3
6-3 +3.3 u

Total
48-37 +10.3 u

[Gargamel]

Good morning. Today's card is more interesting than the one of yesterday. I'll start out with this one and then add some more later on.

Germany are the prime team on European youth level right now and are in a bad spot needing some wins. They play in-form Iceland who just can't stop scoring. Odds are abysmal on a German win but I'll play the over 3 in this one. Can easily see this running away.

Also seen Bristol recommended on a few betting blogs and by H-Bomb on here. I'll tail that one.

----------------------------
2/3

Germany U21 v Iceland U21 OVER 3 @ 1.775
Scotland U21 v Azerbaijan U21 OVER 3 @ 1.775
Bristol @ 1.61
Maccabi Holon women -4.5@ 1.625
Parlay: Elfsborg, Cliftonville, Germany U21, Scotland U21, Hapoel Beer Sheva women @ 2.46
----------------------------

[Gargamel]

Here are some other games I'm contemplating. I'd like any info I can have on these.

Nantwich Town v Worksop - away win @ 3.3
Clevedon Town v Chippenham Town - away win @ 2.2
Barrow v York - Barrow +0 @ 2.05

I think these are good value plays but I'm a bit scared to pull the trigger. All info appreciated.

EDIT: I'll throw in another U21 OVER 3 at the same odds as the one above. Scotland are strong at home and should easily put 3 balls behind Azerbaijan. Scotland won 4-0 away, so similar or higher scores at home should be possible.

Also looking at Spain, but the line are drawn higher there and they are currently a little overrated at U21 level. Bojan just doesn't cut it, and might not even still be young enough anyway.

[Gargamel]

Since I've been lucky with the women's soccer lately I'll take a crazy punt at Israel Division 1 leaders Maccabi Holon against second from bottom placed Hapoel Ironi Rishon LeZion. Maccabi Holon have five straight wins and average 6.19 goals per game. Their opponents are junk and let in goals at a faster rate than I type this post.

The handicap is quite huge but I still feel it's a good play. At least it's a different one, you can't deny that

Maccabi Holon women -4.5@ 1.625

EDIT: And a favourite parlay as well, as the one yesterday paid off. There are probably not very good value in these but I'll give it a few more shots.

Parlay: Elfsborg, Cliftonville, Germany U21, Scotland U21, Hapoel Beer Sheva women @ 2.46

I guess that is my final card for today, unless someone I trust very much has a play I can't stay away from.

----------------------------
2/3

Germany U21 v Iceland U21 OVER 3 @ 1.775 WIN
Scotland U21 v Azerbaijan U21 OVER 3 @ 1.775 WIN
Bristol @ 1.61 WIN
Maccabi Holon women -4.5@ 1.625 LOSS
Parlay: Elfsborg, Cliftonville, Germany U21, Scotland U21, Hapoel Beer Sheva women @ 2.46 LOSS
Nacional @ 1.66 WIN
Live: Nacional v Belenenses 1st half corners OVER 7 @ 2.5 LOSS
Live: Nacional v Belenenses OVER 2, 2.5 @ 2.125 LOSS
Live: Brazil to score in 1st half @ 1.57 2u WIN
Live: Rosario to score in 2nd half @ 1.57 2u WIN
Cheltenham , -0.5 @ 1.9 LOSS
----------------------------

[Gargamel]

Live: Nacional v Belenenses 1st half corners OVER 7 @ 2.5 LOSS

EDIT: Shocking play. Just after I placed it Nacional scored and the half died. Corners were coming at a healthy rate before the goal but my judgement failed me a bit when I thought they would keep attacking even if they took the lead. Belenenses look poor defensively so I see a couple of more goals in this one.

Live: Nacional v Belenenses OVER 2, 2.5 @ 2.125 LOSS

EDIT: Shocking. I made an outright fool of myself there. Scrappy and crappy game.

[Gargamel]

Time to sum up the day before I go to bed. Might make a late light play as usual. I played too many games today. I made some good calls but should have played a much smaller card. I still have so much to learn. Could have ended much worse if I hadn't got lucky with that late Ireland own goal.

----------------------------
2/3

Germany U21 v Iceland U21 OVER 3 @ 1.775 WIN
Scotland U21 v Azerbaijan U21 OVER 3 @ 1.775 WIN
Bristol @ 1.61 WIN
Maccabi Holon women -4.5@ 1.625 LOSS
Parlay: Elfsborg, Cliftonville, Germany U21, Scotland U21, Hapoel Beer Sheva women @ 2.46 LOSS
Nacional @ 1.66 WIN
Live: Nacional v Belenenses 1st half corners OVER 7 @ 2.5 LOSS
Live: Nacional v Belenenses OVER 2, 2.5 @ 2.125 LOSS
Live: Brazil to score in 1st half @ 1.57 2u WIN
Live: Rosario to score in 2nd half @ 1.57 2u WIN
Cheltenham , -0.5 @ 1.9 LOSS
Kidderminster @ 1.57 LOSS
Velez v Boca OVER 2.5 @ 1.9 WIN
----------------------------

2/3
7-6 +/- 0.0u

Total
55-43 +10.4 u

[Gargamel]

Good morning. Tasty looking card today, but I'll try and play less games than yesterday. Right now I'm on Japan v Bahrein OVER 2.5. Also already placed a handicap bet for Finland to smash poor Malta. Also on Uruguay that I think are the superior side to Switzerland and are huge dogs. Japan game is 1-0 with 5 to go of the first half.

I also like Egypt tonight. Odds are far too good to ignore. People forget the strength it takes for a team to win three consecutive African cup of nations. Also, England are without Ferdinand and will most probably replace Rooney at half time or something (he has a knee issue). And Like Clyde Fontaine said in another post, go against the qualified teams. Egypt will want to show the world that them missing the World Cup was a freak accident.

EDIT: Posted this in another thread but I'd like to have it here for the record as well.

A few weeks ago I messed up badly with a play on this league, after failing to see that my team had loads of players away on national duty. This time however, I've come up with a real long shot properly backed up and ready!

We are now in the semi finals, and the game in question is Gombak United vs Woodlands Wellington. My recommendation is to play Woodlands at odds about 4. Why?

Because Gombak's two star strikers Njoku and Obatola have left the team after having work permits granted to play in other leagues. According to the trainer they now take this semi final as a chance to test a few things for the more important league games to come.

Add to that the fact that Wellingon have perhaps the best striker in the league in Noor Ali and another good striker in Laakkad and we have a very good value play! Also, Woodland's trainer last season worked as secondary trainer in Gombak so he should know what to do. The game just started so get on it!

----------------------------
3/3

Japan v Bahrein OVER 2.5 @ 1.85 LOSS
Finland -1 EH @ 2.75 LOSS
Uruguay +0, +0.5 @ 1.875 WIN
Egypt win or draw @ 3 LOSS
Woodlands Wellington @ 4 LOSS
Bosnia @ 2.25 WIN
Yemen @ 2.2 LOSS
Iceland women v Portugal women OVER 2.5 @ 2 WIN
Holland @ 1.47 5u WIN
South Africa, Spain +0 @1.9LOSS
Turkey, Portugal @ 1.96 WIN
Germany to score in 2nd @ 1.9 +.75u LOSS
Slovenia -1 -1.5 @ 1.95 WIN
Estudiantes -1 @ 1.925 LOSS
Estudiantes v Argentinos OVER 1 in 1st half @ 1.875 PUSH
Mexico v NZ OVER 2.5, 3 @ 1.9 LOSS

----------------------------

[Gargamel]

Crazy day. Will sum it up tomorrow. Need to get some sleep now. Played far too many games today again, but got away with it. Good night.

[Gargamel]

3/3
6-9 -1.6 U

Total
61-52 +8.8 u

---

I will change the structure of this thread to make it more worthwhile for others to read, and more easy to understand. Also I hope it will be easier of some fool decides to tail me on a certain pick.

Starting today I will only make 0-5 official plays each day, and never more. I will choose the best plays only instead of listing all stupid moves I make every day. I will also try to post the picks together (unless it's live ones etc). Hope this will work out better.

[Gargamel]

No plays yesterday. Today I have two plays to start with, and I might add 1-3 more. Some information: a unit is about 4% of my total betting account. Since this thread started I've done well both here and in some other sports. So a unit is now about twice as much money as when this thread started

Would probably still not impress most cappers on here. As I said yesterday - all plays I post from now on will be plays I believe strongly in.

----------------------------
5/3

Mons -1.5 @ 1.775
Hansa Rostock @ 1.75
Arles 0, -0.5 @ 1.8
----------------------------

[Gargamel]

Went 1-2 last time around, losing 0.2 units. Also lost another unit on my bold over play in Arsenal-Burnley yesterday. I still feel that was good value.
Total
62-55 +7.6 u

--
New day today with five strong plays. I'm almost sure this will be a good day.
----------------------------
7/3

Inter -1 @ 1.7
Malaga @ 1.61
Cagliari @ 2.1
Palermo @ 1.5
Leverkusen @ 1.7
----------------------------