Gargamel's dugout discussion

[Gargamel]

23/2
6-9 -3.14 u

Total
18-18. -0.01 u

Crap day. Will perhaps make another play before I go to bed. Better luck tomorrow I hope!

[Gargamel]

I'll add these three. Tailing demize21 on these. He seems to do very well on here but I've had bad luck with his picks before. That can't last forever though!

Copa Libertadores
Monarcas Morelia @ 1.6 LOSS
Internacional RS -1.5 @ 1.85 LOSS
Sarsfield @ 1.9 WIN

Very disappointed with how today turned out. Though I'd done my research properly but Aldershot blew a 2-0 lead and Barca were far more content with the score draw than I thought they'd be. Anyway - no idea to keep mulling about that. Quite a tasty profit I've made on my soccer plays since I came here. 0.05u are great.

[Gargamel]

Sarsfield to score in 2nd half @ 1.57 2u WIN
Sarsfield to score again in 2nd half @ 2.25 LOSS

EDIT: Oh that's just beautiful. Had a feeling that one would it so did something I rarely do and played 2 units on it. They repaid my faith in 10 minutes. Now I can sleep well!

[Gargamel]

I'm SHOCKED by Sarsfield's finishing, just as I was yesterday in the Estudiantes game. They take 20 clear cut chances for every goal.

EDIT: Jesus Christ. I've never seen anything like this.
EDIT2: Absolutely ridiculous. They have one open goal every two minutes and they always hit row Z.
EDIT3: I'm furious with Sarsfield. They carved their opponents up with such ease and then shanked every finish. They should be ashamed for costing me that last bet. I'm stunned.

[samitarian]

how many units was the last bet?

[Gargamel]

1 unit samitarian!

[Gargamel]

One more, just for the sheer hell of it. I'm off to bed. Good night everybody. Will update the stats before I make tomorrow's plays.

Inter v Emelec OVER 11.5 corners @ 1.9 WIN

[Gargamel]

Good morning. I'll play this funky AFC game, after being inspired by Karayilan's thread about it. I'd love to bet that competition more, but who on earth knows much about these teams?

Anyway, a cheeky low stakes punt.
Singapore Armed Forces DNB @ 10 0.5u PUSH

My other leans for today are CSKA Moscow to do well, and Tottenham and Villa to win easily. Will look more into it now or soon. Glad last night's corner play hit. Ended up almost square for the night though, as Inter and Morelia let me down.

[Gargamel]

Today I started clearing a bonus which will let me lose a few of my first coupons without losing money. So today I can afford to make some bigger bets, as it doesn't matter in the same way if I lose. I will play two games with lower odds than I'd usually do with these, as I'd like to keep the bonus alive.

Aston Villa @ 1.32 3u
Tottenham @ 1.30 3u

More to be added later.

[Gargamel]

Another AFC game! Singapore finishing 0-0, losing corners 11-1 . Three more, not sure if I'm done for today. Tailing EP36 on one as well. He's good. I'll throw in a crazy parlay as well. Today's final card:

Singapore Armed Forces DNB @ 10 0.5u PUSH
Aston Villa @ 1.32 3u WIN
Tottenham @ 1.30 3u WIN
Al Hilal Riyadh @ 2.25 WIN
Sepahan @ 3.4 LOSS
CSKA Moscow +0 @ 1.875 PUSH
Fiorentina v Milan OVER 2, 2.5 @ 1.9 WIN
Germany women, Cruzeiro, Juan Aurich, Supersport United @ 4.01 LOSS
Cercle Brugge @ 1.83 WIN
Stoke +0, 0.5 @ 1.715 PUSH / WIN
WBA @ 1.72 LOSS
Inter DNB @ 1.825 WIN
Chelsea to score in 2nd @ 1.72 WIN

Oh, and I also played Switzlerland +0 against USA tonight in the Olympic Hockey for 0.5u. I won't keep that in my soccer stats of course and it probably won't hit. Odds were 14 though and I'm sure there is value in it. Switzerland did well in the group stages.

[Gargamel]

Inter DNB @ 1.825 WIN
Chelsea to score in 2nd @ 1.72 WIN

Crappy WBA let in a late equaliser, and Villa as well for one of the big bets. Close to being a very good day otherwise, now we'll see how it ends.

COME ON VILLA!

[protein]

Inter DNB @ 1.825 WIN
Chelsea to score in 2nd @ 1.72 WIN

Nice hit

[Gargamel]

Thanks mate! VILLA GOOOOOALLLLL!!!!



And now 3-1! Lovely. Just lovely.

[Gargamel]

0.96 + 0.9 + 1.25 -1 +0.9 -1 +0.83 +0.36 -1 +0.83 +0.72

Time to sum up the day for me, before I place my night-bets and go to bed.

Singapore Armed Forces DNB @ 10 0.5u PUSH
Aston Villa @ 1.32 3u WIN
Tottenham @ 1.30 3u WIN
Al Hilal Riyadh @ 2.25 WIN
Sepahan @ 3.4 LOSS
CSKA Moscow +0 @ 1.875 PUSH
Fiorentina v Milan OVER 2, 2.5 @ 1.9 WIN
Germany women, Cruzeiro, Juan Aurich, Supersport United @ 4.01 LOSS
Cercle Brugge @ 1.83 WIN
Stoke +0, 0.5 @ 1.715 PUSH / WIN
WBA @ 1.72 LOSS
Inter DNB @ 1.825 WIN
Chelsea to score in 2nd @ 1.72 WIN

24/2
11-4(-2) +5.5 u

Total
29-22. +5.5 u

--
Good day for me this. I guess no sane person in here would tail me, but congratulations if you did. Let's hope I can keep this up. Will have a few more picks for tonight, but mostly me tailing others.

EDIT:
Cruzeiro -1 @ 1.9 WIN
Juan Aurich -1 @ 1.85 WIN
Flamengo -1 @ 2 WIN
Corinthians -1.5 @ 1.95 LOSS

[Gargamel]

Smashing day - seems like many did well today (Wednesday). Hope to keep it up!

24/2
11-4(-2) +5.5 u

Total
29-22. +5.5 u


Thursday I'm looking at a Shaktar/Valencia Parlay, and I'll play Salzburg again as well. Had them last time around when they slipped to a late defeat. Will look more into tonight's game and will post my other picks later. These two are almost 100%. Wolfsburg over is also interesting, if I can find good enough odds. I might play a bunch of parlays today rather than straight picks, not sure yet. I think it might be another good day with some luck. An idea is to double up Valencia with another team in several parlays, as I'm almost sure Valencia will win. Oh well, need to think more on that.

[Gargamel]

Started a separate thread on this, but thought I'd copy it in here for the record.

Good morning my friends, whatever the time is on your side of the pond.

I thought we'd start the day off with a punt on some Singaporean football, continuing yesterday's trend of teams no one has ever heard of. I'm not as good as Karayilan doing this, but here is what I've come up with!

Today's game is Home United vs Gombak United. Home United have started the year in good fashion, and although it seems like they both recently came of their winter break Home United seem to be the superior team. They ended last season with four consecutive wins and held a 68% over 2.5 goals through the entire season.

Gombak United managed 55% over 2.5 goals last season, and have started this season with two losses out of three games.

So without really knowing more than this quite thin research, I'll make two bets! I'd be glad if someone joined in so we can get drunk together after losing all our money. Odds from bet365, who seem to be among the highest odds on offer on this one.

Home United win @ 2.4 LOSS
Home United v Gombak United OVER 2.5/3 @ 1.8 LOSS

BOL!

[Gargamel]

I see Salzburg trashing Standard today. Salzburg have won home and away to top teams like Villareal, Lazio and Levski Sofia in Europe this year. If(when) they score Standard will have to come forward and Salzburg will want to please their home crowd and will then counter attack in a bunch of more goals. Salzburg top their national league with a home goal difference of 24-7.

I'm confident on this one, so I'll play it right now and I also see the line moving in the wrong direction today.

FC Salzburg @ 1.8
FC Salzburg -1EH @ 3.6

[citlec]

Winning points sent. Well done

[Gargamel]

Thanks mate! You taking any plays today or is the shop closed?

[citlec]

Yes I'll open up a book later on.

[Gargamel]

Big card today. Started out horribly with my punt on that Singapore game. Missed the small fact that Home United were without eight first team players who were away on national duty. I enjoy taking a few punts at these strange leagues though so I'll play two plays on a United Arab Emirates game as well. And I invest my safe money for a second time, on Wolfsburg-Villareal. This bet is free so if it goes to hell it doesn't mean the world.

25/2
Home United win @ 2.4 LOSS
Home United v Gombak United OVER 2.5/3 @ 1.8 LOSS
Shaktar, Valencia @ 1.875 LOSS
Wolfsburg v Villareal OVER 2.5 @ 1.6 5u WIN
Roma, Valencia @ 1.75 LOSS
FC Salzburg @ 1.8
FC Salzburg -1EH @ 3.6
Al Shaab Sharjah @ 1.8 WIN
Dubbal Al Husun v Al Shaab Sharjah OVER 3, 3.5 @ 1.9 PUSH / LOSS

[Gargamel]

My Arabian boys made me proud, but Roma and Shaktar are messing up. I'll look into some half-time bets for their games I think.

[Gargamel]

Shaktar to win 2nd half @ 1.57 WIN
Roma to score the next goal @ 1.61 WIN

[Gargamel]

Well well. Shaktar and Roma let me down badly, but at least I recouped some with my half time bets. Not a good day this far, but at least my strongest bets are left, including that huge one. A bit nervous I must say.

[Gargamel]

Oooohhh YEAH! Big play hitting inside 30 minutes. Wolfsburg are absolutely trashing Villareal, but both teams attack rather than defend. I'll see if I can get good odds on a really high OVER perhaps. Only Salzburg left now.

[Gargamel]

Wolfsburg to score in 2nd half @ 1.5 WIN
Villareal to score in 2nd half @ 1.66 LOSS

Definitely more goals in this one. 100% sure these are winners.

EDIT: Wolfsburg right there. More goals to come, if anyone else wants a piece of the cake.
EDIT2: Wolfsburg keeper had an absolute stormer in the second half. Still sure there was great value in the losing play. Time to sum up the day soon - I'm sceptical.

[Gargamel]

25/2
Home United win @ 2.4 LOSS
Home United v Gombak United OVER 2.5/3 @ 1.8 LOSS
Shaktar, Valencia @ 1.875 LOSS
Wolfsburg v Villareal OVER 2.5 @ 1.6 5u WIN
Roma, Valencia @ 1.75 LOSS
FC Salzburg @ 1.8 LOSS
FC Salzburg -1EH @ 3.6 LOSS
Al Shaab Sharjah @ 1.8 WIN
Dubbal Al Husun v Al Shaab Sharjah OVER 3, 3.5 @ 1.9 PUSH / LOSS
Shaktar to win 2nd half @ 1.57 WIN
Roma to score the next goal @ 1.61 WIN
Wolfsburg to score in 2nd half @ 1.5 WIN
Villareal to score in 2nd half @ 1.66 LOSS
Lanus @ 1.95 WIN
Caldas Once OVER 2/2.5 @ 1.875 WIN

25/2
7-7 -0.17 u

Total
36-29. +5.33 u

--
Ended up almost even. Fair enough.

[Gargamel]

Tailing SG and Kara on their Copa picks. They know their stuff. I've always been lucky with SG, I have a ROI of 173% of all plays I've tailed him. Thanks for that. You're not too bad at 112% either Kara! Relatively small samples though.

Copa Libertadores
Lanus @ 1.95 WIN
Caldas Once OVER 2/2.5 @ 1.875 WIN

EDIT: Also played a unit on Canada women in the hockey finals. 2-0 up in first period

[Gargamel]

Spartangreen and Karayilan of course saved my day. Great cappers. Oh, and the Canadian women won as well.

Small card today, but I'm looking at a few games anyway. Nimes at homes to Nantes in French Ligue 1 for 2.1 might be something, and also FC Zwolle v FC Den Bosch. FC Zwolle are a great home side with 9 wins in their last 10 home games, and Den Bosch travel badly, not winning any of their last 6 away games. Odds are 1.72 on that one right now and I see it moving the wrong way so I'll get on the last one right now I think.

Sweden vs Iceland in the women's Algarve Cup should be a sure winner, that I might play at 1.40. Also looking at Caen who should win about Strasbourg. I'm a bit worried and might stay off the -AH on then, which is what I'd usually go for. Oh never mind, I'll play the -1.

Oh, and I'll place Barcelona -1 EH @ 1.53 for Saturday now as well. That one will move and the -1.5AH is already down to 1.34. Adding Nimes as well, to all but finish up my card. Slight chance I'll add an Algarve Cup game or parlay.

----------------------------
26/2

FC Zwolle @ 1.72 LOSS
Caen -1 @ 2.14 LOSS
Nimes @ 2.05 WIN
USA women @ 1.61 WIN
Live: Sweden women OVER 2.5 @ 1.5 WIN
Schalke v Dortmund OVER 2.5 @ 2.1 WIN
----------------------------

[Gargamel]

Odds are not super high on that one last live bet, but Sweden are up 9-1 in corners in first 55 minutes and are peppering Iceland. I'm sure they'll get one more. It's a very solid play to me.

EDIT: And there it hit. 7 minutes!

[Sportslover]

Like the Nimes play, Nantes has a pretty poor away record this season, I'm on the same play. Think Zwolle gets the job done as well, although juice was a bit too much for me on that one. Good luck with all your plays.

[Gargamel]

Thanks a lot Sportslover. Not many people visit my thread, so I'm glad you did.

USA scored a late winner for me to get off to a 2-0 start of the day. I think there is often good value to be found in women's football. Unfortunately I don't know the leagues very well, but when the national sides play I try to place a bunch of bets. Hope the day continues in this good way.

[svenodds]

Goodluck tonight

[whatsgood5]

Good luck today man!

[Gargamel]

Thanks a lot svenodds and whatsgood5!

Added the over in Schalke-Dortmund. Bit of a long shot as I don't know these teams goal scoring potential really well. Part of me regret that I placed that bet, but it'll feel better if it's a winner