The Karayilan Thread - Part 2

Karayilan9 · 03-29-10, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by Nyphra

Karayilan9, I got a question for you since you are Turkish right?

I've come up with a theory bookmakers where the general public in a country bet on are quite good in predicting games. This bookies should only operate in their respective countries (and generally take quite alot of money). I then convert their odds to what the odds should be if there is no theoretical hold in the market. Anyway one of the bookies is IDDAA. Do you think I can apply this theory on IDDAA, or is it just madness?

I've recorded 2 picks last weekend btw, Trabzonspor (pick) v Antalyaspor and Fenerbache (pick) v Manispor. Trabzonspor today was also a pick given the odds of yesterday, the odds right now are still slightly profitable according to my calculation but not enough to bet on it.

When taking Turkish picks always look at IDDAA odds, they are a monopoly cartel the only legal book in Turkey. Check their opening lines, if there is any corruption or inside information going on especially in the smaller leagues they will know about it, sometimes you can find huge differences with the major books outside Turkey as they usually gives the odds according to the stats.

SRBI · 03-29-10, 05:11 PM

Karay - you lookin at Brazil tonight bro? Botafogo vs Boavista

Karayilan9 · 03-29-10, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by SRBI

Karay - you lookin at Brazil tonight bro? Botafogo vs Boavista

No Brazil today for me, Botafogo would crush this team if they put any effort in but I haven't researched this game. Looking at tomorrows games, Asian CL and CL.

BOL

SRBI · 03-29-10, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

No Brazil today for me, Botafogo would crush this team if they put any effort in but I haven't researched this game. Looking at tomorrows games, Asian CL and CL.

BOL

I stayed off it too - might as well get prepared for tomorrow - till then!

sprn · 03-29-10, 05:50 PM

Where can one find the IDDAA odds?

Karayilan9 · 03-29-10, 10:31 PM

iddaa - Kral Oranlarla Krallar Gibi Kazancın Adresi

https://www.iddaa.com

Hiroshima v Adelaide - Adelaide +0.5 @ +100 / 2 (3X)

Adelaide has been totally underestimated in every game of the cup, Hiroshima has been awful, the Aussies bring a very physical game and their new striker has got the offensive department working. I think Adelaide might even sneak a win here.

Shandong Luneng v Pohang Steelers - Pohang Steelers -0 @ -120 / 1.8 (1X)

Mes Kerman v Al Sadd - Al Sadd +0.5 @ -110 / 1.9 (3X)

Al Sadd being underestimated here, Kermans defense is horrible and Al Sadd ran riot on it last game, these odds are going to steam hard tomorrow.

Al Ahli v Al Hilal - Al Hilal @ -120 / 1.8 (5X) - Al Hilal -1 @ +140 / 2.4 (1X)

Last game Al Hilal dominated all game, hit every post, shattered the crossbar, only scored once then Al Ahli scored with their only chance of the game last minute by a free kick. Al Ahli is managerless and Gerets has been preparing for this match, they are out for revenge, these odds will drop alot aswell.

TurkzZ · 03-30-10, 04:40 AM

go Adelaide

hedgejob · 03-30-10, 04:53 AM

Adelaide over pounded down to 1.69 at Pinny. I'm on the +.5 but also taking the under 2.5/3 at 1.99. BTW, I live in Adelaide.

Gargamel · 03-30-10, 05:01 AM

Opinions on Bunyodkor and Al-Ittihad today? Al Wahda were horrible last game and I can certainly see a big win for Al-Ittihad. Bunyodkor might bounce back as well? Odds are a little short on both though..

schenker88 · 03-30-10, 05:49 AM

BOL sir!

JOHON8 · 03-30-10, 05:49 AM

Adelaide are down 1 at half time. odds on them winning sitting around 19.0, anyone watch the game to see if it's worth going with Adelaid for full time?

hedgejob · 03-30-10, 05:59 AM

Adelaide look slow, it looks cold over there. They had 1 real chance in 1st half otherwise they are pretty flat and their GK made 2-3 fine saves and one Hiroshima shot hit the bar so they lucky not to be down by at least 2.

phenomenon · 03-30-10, 06:37 AM

Originally posted by sprn

Where can one find the IDDAA odds?

you may find it here www.bilyoner.com

click iddaa and after that click bahis yap then u ll see the footbal odds

SRBI · 03-30-10, 08:27 AM

Adelaide collapsed - Pohang won - need the last two to hit for a good day - thanks for the picks Karay!

Karayilan9 · 03-30-10, 01:33 PM

CL - Bayern Munich v Manchester United - Manchester United -0 @ -140 / 1.7 (2X) LOSS

schenker88 · 03-30-10, 03:50 PM

last to happen: goal...

Karayilan9 · 03-30-10, 08:25 PM

Copa Libertadores - Juan Aurich v Estudiantes - Estudiantes ML @ +100 / 2 (5X) 02:30 GMT WIN

sjm5122 · 03-30-10, 09:05 PM

too late to jump on this one with you, good luck

Karayilan9 · 03-30-10, 10:29 PM

Did anybody see Estudiantes second goal, it is one to watch guys, what a shot!

tavinator13 · 03-30-10, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Copa Libertadores - Juan Aurich v Estudiantes - Estudiantes ML @ +100 / 2 (5X) 02:30 GMT WIN

Nice hit on this...tailed you on this and most of your AFC plays

tbill11 · 03-30-10, 10:34 PM

Missed this one by 2 minutes...man so brutal, especially since 5dimes doesn't offer live betting.

Ace_of_Spades · 03-30-10, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Did anybody see Estudiantes second goal, it is one to watch guys, what a shot!

The only goal i saw of the match was the chip shot from just over the half i think, which was the 2nd goal. I wasn't sure why the keeper was so far out for, he didn't need to be.

schenker88 · 03-31-10, 05:49 AM

szia!
keep up the good work kara!
some losses are part of the betting world

hedgejob · 04-01-10, 04:03 AM

Kara Aussie Rules game starting in about 40 mins. Brisbane Lions should cover -19.5, I've gone with total over 185.5.

hedgejob · 04-01-10, 09:17 AM

Lions won 107-88 they didn't cover by 1 point but over hit. 7 more games to come this weekend.

Karayilan9 · 04-01-10, 11:39 PM

Originally posted by hedgejob

Lions won 107-88 they didn't cover by 1 point but over hit. 7 more games to come this weekend.

There are a few Walkabout bars here, I asked the guy inside and he said they are showing the St Kilda vs North Melbourne game, going to watch my first proper Aussie rules game with the Aussies

Let's have a great weekend! been really busy last two days but back now, lets get capping

shari91 · 04-01-10, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

There are a few Walkabout bars here, I asked the guy inside and he said they are showing the St Kilda vs North Melbourne game, going to watch my first proper Aussie rules game with the Aussies

schenker88 · 04-02-10, 03:46 AM

lets go on

hedgejob · 04-02-10, 03:56 AM

That's awesome Kara, hope you enjoy it. The aim of the game is to kick the ball through the middle sticks which means 6 points. If you kick through the right or left posts it's 1 point.

St Kilda finished the season top of the ladder last year but they lost the grand final to Geelong. They are a good team. North Melbourne have been struggling but they got a new coach this season and their results with him have been better. Unfortunatelty I'm not betting this game as I'm not sure if St Kilda will cover the spread.

Mr.Kitty · 04-02-10, 05:43 AM

Hey Kara whats your opinion on Besiktas 1.90/-110 today? last 16 meetings when Ankaragucu have played at home has ended in 12 wins for Besiktas, 2 draws and 1 loss. These statistics are very convincing but any input would be appriciated.

Karayilan9 · 04-02-10, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Mr.Kitty

Hey Kara whats your opinion on Besiktas 1.90/-110 today? last 16 meetings when Ankaragucu have played at home has ended in 12 wins for Besiktas, 2 draws and 1 loss. These statistics are very convincing but any input would be appriciated.

I haven't been online all day, its too late to tip the game but remember for future reference that this is the best Ankaragucu there has ever been. They won't show their strength in the league standings this season as the transformation happened in the new year. The club merged with Ankaraspor, they have alot more money than before, their manager is very good Roger Lemerre who was involved as manager and assistant with the French world cup and euro winning teams. The squad keeps improving, they bought in alot of experienced players and sorted the defense out first, now they are working at their attacking threat. This team is one to watch, they have made us alot the second half of the season, they will be under the radar and we get good odds on them.

Mr.Kitty · 04-02-10, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

I haven't been online all day, its too late to tip the game but remember for future reference that this is the best Ankaragucu there has ever been. They won't show their strength in the league standings this season as the transformation happened in the new year. The club merged with Ankaraspor, they have alot more money than before, their manager is very good Roger Lemerre who was involved as manager and assistant with the French world cup and euro winning teams. The squad keeps improving, they bought in alot of experienced players and sorted the defense out first, now they are working at their attacking threat. This team is one to watch, they have made us alot the second half of the season, they will be under the radar and we get good odds on them.

Thanks for the info anyway, I tailed TurkzZ on the under which cashed.

SRBI · 04-02-10, 04:00 PM

Lookin forward to your picks for the weekend bro - lets have another great run like last weekend

kmarinouofm · 04-03-10, 03:57 AM

Kara.. those are my picks for tomorrow.. hit me up

man u pk
arsenal over 2.5, 3
Blackburn pk, -.5
Newcastle -.5, -1

Karayilan9 · 04-03-10, 06:21 AM

Originally posted by kmarinouofm

Kara.. those are my picks for tomorrow.. hit me up

man u pk
arsenal over 2.5, 3
Blackburn pk, -.5
Newcastle -.5, -1

I'm leaving the Man U match, Arsenal match is tricky, Blackburn looks good as Pompy is thinking of the FA cup but Blackburn are safe so how motivated they are is questionable.

I like Newcastle, this match could secure promotion, they will have alot of travelling support aswell.