Arsenal vs Coventry
I’m using Polymarket as one of my market references, together with team totals and a simple goal-distribution model.
Arsenal -1.5 is currently around 1.67. The team-total prices imply roughly 2.67 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.55 for Coventry, which gives Arsenal around a 61% chance of winning by 2+ goals in my simple model.
The ML is far too short for me, while Over 2.5 and BTTS No look close to fairly priced. The handicap gives the clearest risk/reward of the markets I checked.
Pick: Arsenal -1.5 @ 1.67
Stake: 0.5 units
Main score range: 2-0 / 3-0 Arsenal.
Pura vida, and good luck everyone!
SCHEDULE FOR THE WEEKEND — EASTERN TIME
Friday, August 21
3:00 PM — Arsenal vs Coventry City
Saturday, August 22
7:30 AM — Hull City vs Manchester United
10:00 AM — Everton vs Crystal Palace
10:00 AM — Ipswich Town vs Sunderland
10:00 AM — Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United
12:30 PM — Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, August 23
9:00 AM — Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa
9:00 AM — Manchester City vs Bournemouth
11:30 AM — Newcastle United vs Liverpool
Monday, August 24
3:00 PM — Fulham vs Chelsea
I’m using Polymarket as one of my market references, together with team totals and a simple goal-distribution model.
Arsenal -1.5 is currently around 1.67. The team-total prices imply roughly 2.67 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.55 for Coventry, which gives Arsenal around a 61% chance of winning by 2+ goals in my simple model.
The ML is far too short for me, while Over 2.5 and BTTS No look close to fairly priced. The handicap gives the clearest risk/reward of the markets I checked.
Pick: Arsenal -1.5 @ 1.67
Stake: 0.5 units
Main score range: 2-0 / 3-0 Arsenal.
Pura vida, and good luck everyone!
SCHEDULE FOR THE WEEKEND — EASTERN TIME
Friday, August 21
3:00 PM — Arsenal vs Coventry City
Saturday, August 22
7:30 AM — Hull City vs Manchester United
10:00 AM — Everton vs Crystal Palace
10:00 AM — Ipswich Town vs Sunderland
10:00 AM — Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United
12:30 PM — Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday, August 23
9:00 AM — Brighton & Hove Albion vs Aston Villa
9:00 AM — Manchester City vs Bournemouth
11:30 AM — Newcastle United vs Liverpool
Monday, August 24
3:00 PM — Fulham vs Chelsea