Italy Serie-A

[Dark Horse]

Interesting game this Sunday in Italy. Reggina - AC Milan

Get these odds (WSEX):
Reggina -415
Draw +460
AC Milan +650

After winning the Champions League on Wednesday, AC Milan is expected to take it easy in this one. Meanwhile, Reggina is involved in a battle for the final relegation spot with Siena, which is hosting Lazio Roma.

Link to the table before the final game of the season:

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/tables?league=ita.1&cc=5739

Here is where it gets interesting. In the game-fixing scandal (that sent Juventus back to the Serie-B), the four teams mentioned above - AC Milan, Reggina, Siena, and Lazio - all were punished with handicaps at the start of the season. Milan started the competition -8 pts, Reggina -11 pts, Lazio -3 pts, and Siena -1 pt. So the question becomes: in the wake of this scandal, does AC Milan really want to be accused of giving away this game, even if it means nothing to them and they've been celebrating, and thereby allow Reggina to stay in the Serie A? The same, of course, goes for number three Lazio. If their reputations mean anything to them neither Lazio or Milan can afford not to show up for their final game against relegation candidates. (for the record, the only other team involved in the scandal was Fiorentina).

Reggina has shared the points in four of its last five games. Milan has done the same in half of its 18 road games. Will Milan do enough to split the points? At a payoff of +460 I'm definitely willing to think so. Milan will be resting some starters, so not a big wager.


Thoughts?

[Dark Horse]

About Milan resting players. This is the team they fielded last Saturday, in a 2-3 home loss to Udinese:

26 Marco Storari (G)
25 Daniele Bonera (D)
5 Alessandro Costacurta (D)
19 Giuseppe Favalli (D)
24 Leandro Grimi (D)
17 Dario Simic (D)
32 Cristian Brocchi (M)
20 Yoann Gourcuff (M)
27 Sergio Serginho (M)
15 Marco Borriello (F)
7 Ricardo Oliveira (F)

And this is the team that played Liverpool on Wednesday:

1 Nelson Dida (G)
3 Paolo Maldini (D)
13 Alessandro Nesta (D)
44 Massimo Oddo (D)
23 Massimo Ambrosini (M)
8 Gennaro Gattuso (M)
22 Kaká (M)
18 Marek Jankulovski (M)
21 Andrea Pirlo (M)
10 Clarence Seedorf (M)
9 Filippo Inzaghi (F)

Slightly different. Less need to protect starters in this upcoming match, but uncertain who will play. Still, many bench players like to grasp the opportunity to show what they can do. Like Europe's other powerhouses Milan is extremely deep. In spite of fielding their second stringers against Udinese the game was very even:

AC Milan
Shots (on Goal) 22(9)
Fouls 16
Corner Kicks 3
Offsides 5
Time of Possession 52%
Yellow Cards 2
Red Cards 0
Saves 4

Udinese
Shots (on Goal) 18(7)
Fouls 15
Corner Kicks 3
Offsides 1
Time of Possession 49%
Yellow Cards 1
Red Cards 0
Saves 7

[adriano]

Wouldn't count on Milan battling for any points in this game.

In Italy, in the last weekend of play, almost every team gets the points they need, this is a fact. I don't think the match-fixing scandal this summer will change anything this time, just look at how all points deduction penalties were lowered for every team, and Milan weren't even supposed to play in CL according to the original penalties. Also playing in that CL final gives Milan the perfect excuse to field their second team and lose this game.

[Razz]

I think we'll see something like 2-0 or 3-1, but I certainly understand what you're saying.

[facasto]

Milan +650? I'll bet on Milan

[facasto]

Some problems for Milan's players on Champions Party: there was a very offensive sign for Inter's supporters and so, I suppose, next match Milan have to win

[pavyracer]

Guys, I have watched two games last week. Milan-Udineze and Cagliari-Roma. It looked more like preseason friendlies. No one was marking their opponents and especially Roma let Cagliari score easily to let them win. The only safe plays this week are the overs and only if you do them round robins to be on the safe side. Noone is playing defense in italy the last 2 weeks.

[facasto]

Good advice. Tx

[leo]

I think so pavyracer.Over is the best choise for these...
And also I like Fio vs Sampdoria.
But the most interesting match is Parma-Empoli...Parma have to win not to relegate and Empoli to go UEFA Cup for the next season.I think Empoli is much stronger than Parma and I will take myself a little bit Empoli...

[facasto]

Parma not so weak.... I'll wait 0-0

[pavyracer]

I'll wait half an hour before the games start to see the lineups to decide which games to bet. I'm interested in Milan, Inter, Roma, Fiorentina, Palermo lineups and any other team that doesn't have interest in the games.

[pavyracer]

As I thought, 8/10 games overs and the two non-overs were the match between the two teams that were fighting relegation and the Milan game which Milan gave to Reggina to be safe by fielding 2nd team players.

Hope you made some money.

[facasto]

I did. Tx