Real Madrid - Alcorcon

**TWEETS** · 11-10-09, 09:10 AM

Tough game to bet on, does Real Madrid really care enough about the cup to put forth a good effort? It means a lot more to Alcorcon and I can see them playing a tight defensive game to keep their 4 goal lead.

**SRBI** · 11-10-09, 09:25 AM

Originally posted by TWEETS

Tough game to bet on, does Real Madrid really care enough about the cup to put forth a good effort? It means a lot more to Alcorcon and I can see them playing a tight defensive game to keep their 4 goal lead.

That is the question...tough match to bet on but I'd roll with RM -3 or over 4.

**jasonw** · 11-10-09, 10:04 AM

Ive got Alcocorn at +2400. Isn't that good value for a team that won 4-0 last time?

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-10-09, 10:13 AM

I'm still thinking, but I'd venture to say Alcocorn +3.5 at -108 is pretty solid. Real likely wins this match, but I'm not sure they overturn the 4 goal margin in one match. I can see them winning by 2-3, but not 4.

**RoagBettor** · 11-10-09, 10:42 AM

One has to ask why the books are dangling a very enticing +3.5 out there with an over 4 total. I wouldn't be surprised to see Real win 4-0.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-10-09, 10:43 AM

Or they are trying to draw heavy on the public who most likely think Madrid will turn it on and win by 4. You can look at it either way.

**RoagBettor** · 11-10-09, 10:56 AM

EP, I would agree with that except for the fact they lost 4-0 last time. That makes Joe Public think the +3.5 is a no-brainer.

**jasonw** · 11-10-09, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by SRBI

That is the question...tough match to bet on but I'd roll with RM -3 or over 4.

Upon further review...agreed.

**infamousbacardi** · 11-10-09, 11:08 AM

If nothing else, a lot of people are interested to see how this fixture will result...ought to be a fun one to keep an eye on! If Real is motivated...they could turn this deficit around by the half at the Bernabeu!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-10-09, 11:22 AM

Disagree that Joe Public thinks +3.5 is a no-brainer. Those who follow soccer know Real laid a turd in this competition last year. Your average bettor who just looks at the name would think the big club squashes the little one simply because they are at home and with the deficit. In any case, I just don't think Real has the defense to make up this deficit. They could score 5 and give up 2. That's where my mind is at right now.

**jasonw** · 11-10-09, 11:22 AM

I'll be watching either way, though i suspect it might not be as exciting after the first 10-15 minutes.

**TWEETS** · 11-10-09, 11:24 AM

Might be best to wait for the lineups and see how serious RM is about this game.

**RoagBettor** · 11-10-09, 11:24 AM

EP, thanks for your analysis, you certainly know soccer better than I do so I appreciate the input.

**infamousbacardi** · 11-10-09, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by jasonw

I'll be watching either way, though i suspect it might not be as exciting after the first 10-15 minutes.

With a 4 goal deficit to make up, I doubt the game won't be worth watching after 10-15 minutes.

**pinnerpsk** · 11-10-09, 11:50 AM

I just locked in Real at -3.5 and the over. I see a -5 win for Real with this match. I agree with Roag above. The public sees +3.5 and is all over that.

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-10-09, 11:54 AM

Money at my book is not reflecting that. Real is -3.5 at -116, started at -108 for each. Alcorcon is now +3.5 (+100). I'll be watching this one closely. If the public does back Madrid heavy, this might get to a split 3.5/4.

**RoagBettor** · 11-10-09, 12:04 PM

Pinnacle currently has the -3/-3.5 at -136, and the +3/+3.5 at +126. The over 4.5 is at -120 and the under 4.5 is at +109. I still think the books are looking for Alorcon money.

**pavyracer** · 11-10-09, 12:07 PM

+4 is the only play if I had to make one. Don't bother with the over. If Alcorcor packs the defense which they should it will be hard for Real to score 5 goals.

**SRBI** · 11-10-09, 12:41 PM

Or just don't bother betting this game at all, watch and enjoy the game. That's what I'll be doing.

**Phillth** · 11-10-09, 12:45 PM

A difficult task for any club to score 5 goals when the other team comes into the match with the only goal of not letting you score 5 goals.

**mihaita666** · 11-10-09, 01:06 PM

im staying away from this match, i think its wiser.

**LinWin** · 11-10-09, 01:17 PM

I'm staying away too, since the odds for over 4.5 goals is down to 1.8. That's ridiculous.

**infamousbacardi** · 11-10-09, 01:18 PM

Only tip I have is the one in my thread...1st goal in first 29 minutes. A lot of chalk, but it will happen. Then, sit back and watch and see what Real can do at the Bern!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-10-09, 01:37 PM

Booking Alco +3.5 at +120. Solid price at worse when Real spanks em.

**LTrigger** · 11-10-09, 01:39 PM

I think the -3.5 is the best play. I'm expecting a 4-0 or 5-0 match. There are some injury issues for Alcoron, and some flu issues as well.

FYI Madrid lineup is 4-4-2:
Kaka, Raul, Van Nistelrooy, Higuain

M. Diarra, Gago

Arbeloa, Pepe, Albiol, Lass

**RoagBettor** · 11-10-09, 01:40 PM

LOL forget this match, I'm betting Osasuna over 2.5 that's it.

**infamousbacardi** · 11-10-09, 01:45 PM

Originally posted by LTrigger

I think the -3.5 is the best play. I'm expecting a 4-0 or 5-0 match. There are some injury issues for Alcoron, and some flu issues as well. FYI Madrid lineup is 4-4-2: Kaka, Raul, Van Nistelrooy, Higuain M. Diarra, Gago Arbeloa, Pepe, Albiol, Lass

Lineup says Real are serious about delivering a demo tonight!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 11-10-09, 01:46 PM

Added Osasuna -0.5/-1 (+105).

**RoagBettor** · 11-10-09, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Added Osasuna -0.5/-1 (+105).

I'm tailing you on this one also, let's get it.

**Smogs** · 11-10-09, 01:54 PM

2/1 most goals in first half of Madrid match, i was thinking of slapping a unit on it but decided i'd just leave it, but i feel that is where the value is

**LTrigger** · 11-10-09, 01:59 PM

Got Madrid at -3.5 and Osasuna -1 each for half a unit.

**infamousbacardi** · 11-10-09, 02:14 PM

I think Real has the goals confused...I wonder if they know they need to go the other way??

**infamousbacardi** · 11-10-09, 02:18 PM

Alcoron looks solid

**RoagBettor** · 11-10-09, 02:26 PM

Geez! LOL where are all the freakin' goals?