World Cup Qualifying Scenarios

[InThisMoment]

Going to attempt to break down who is in/who is out and who is still on the fence here.

As for who is in, we have 19 teams qualified:
1. Australia
2. Japan
3. South Korea
4. North Korea
5. Brazil
6. Paraguay
7. Chile
8. Ghana
9. Ivory Coast
10. South Africa
11. United States
12. Mexico
13. Spain
14. England
15. Netherlands
16. Germany
17. Denmark
18. Serbia
19. Italy

That leaves 13 spots up for grabs in the following regions:
20. Winner of Bahrain/New Zealand playoff (1st leg 0-0 in Bahrain)
21/22/23.Winner of African Groups A, B & C
24. CONCACAF 3rd place finisher
25. CONMEBOL (South America) 4th place finisher
26. Winner of playoff between CONCACAF 4th place and CONMEBOL 5th place.
27/28. UEFA (Europe) winners of Groups 2 and 3.
29-32. Winners of 2nd place playoffs in UEFA groups 1-8.

Now to look closer at spots 21-32.

[MrMonkey]

Italia 2010!!!

[Justin7]

There are two sports I truly enjoy watching: Boxing, and World Cup Soccer. I even have my own US Soccer jersey

[lakerboy]

Going to attempt to break down who is in/who is out and who is still on the fence here.

As for who is in, we have 19 teams qualified:
1. Australia
2. Japan
3. South Korea
4. North Korea
5. Brazil
6. Paraguay
7. Chile
8. Ghana
9. Ivory Coast
10. South Africa
11. United States
12. Mexico
13. Spain
14. England
15. Netherlands
16. Germany
17. Denmark
18. Serbia
19. Italy

That leaves 13 spots up for grabs in the following regions:
20. Winner of Bahrain/New Zealand playoff (1st leg 0-0 in Bahrain)who cares
21/22/23.Winner of African Groups A, B & C ditto
24. CONCACAF 3rd place finisher costa rica
25. CONMEBOL (South America) 4th place finisher- argentina
26. Winner of playoff between CONCACAF 4th place and CONMEBOL 5th place. uruguay
27/28. UEFA (Europe) winners of Groups 2 and 3. Swiss and Slovenia
29-32. Winners of 2nd place playoffs in UEFA groups 1-8. Russia/Portugal/France/Ireland

Now to look closer at spots 21-32.

[InThisMoment]

Africa Group A:

Cameroon 10 pts, at Morocco 11/14
Gabon 9 pts, at Togo 11/14

Cameroon wins or Gabon loses they are in.

Gabon wins and Cameroon loses they are in.

If Gabon draws and Cameroon loses by 2 or more, Gabon advances. Otherwise, Cameroon advances on goal differential.

Africa Group B:

Tunisia 11 pts, at Mozambique 11/14
Nigeria 9 pts, at Kenya 11/14

Tunisia win or Nigeria draw or loss, Tunisia advances.

Tunisia loss and Nigeria win, Nigeria advances.

Tunisia draw and Nigeria win, Nigeria advances on goal differential.

Africa Group C:

Algeria 13 pts, at Egypt 11/14
Egypt 10 pts, vs Algeria 11/14

Algeria win, draw or Egypt win by 1 goal, Algeria advances.

Egypt win by 3 or more, Egypt advances.

Egypt win by 2 goals, I believe it goes to drawing of lots as the 7th tiebreakers (correct me if I'm wrong).

[InThisMoment]

CONCACAF 3rd place finisher:

Costa Rica 15 pts, at USA wed.
Honduras 13 pts, at El Salvador wed.

Costa Rica wins or Honduras loses, Costa Rica advances.

Honduras wins and Costa Rica draws or loses, Honduras advances.

The non-advancing team will finish 4th and go to the playoff vs. South America's 5th place finisher.

CONMEBOL 4th place finisher:

Argentina 25 pts, at Uruguay wed.
Uruguay 24 pts, vs Argentina wed.
Ecuador 23 points, at Chile wed.

Argentina wins or draws and Ecuador draws, loses or wins by less than 5 goals, Argentina advances.

Uruguay must win to advance.

Ecuador wins by more than 5 goals and Argentina-Uruguay draw, Ecuador advances.

As for the 5th place playoff:
Ecuador wins, they are guaranteed 5th barring the 5 goal scenario. They lose or draw and are eliminated.

Uruguay draws or loses and Ecuador draws or loses, Uruguay finishes 5th.

Argentina loses and Ecuador draws or loses, Argentina finishes 5th. Argentina loses and Ecuador wins, Argentina is eliminated.

[InThisMoment]

UEFA Group 2 and 3 winners:

Group 2:

Switzerland 20 pts, vs. Israel wed.
Greece 17 pts., vs Luxembourg wed.

Switzerland wins group with win, draw, or Greece draw or loss.
Greece wins group with win and Switzerland loss on goal differential/goals scored tiebreaker.

Group 3:

Slovakia 19 pts, at Poland wed.
Slovenia 17 pts, vs San Marino Wed.

Slovakia wins group with win or Slovenia draw or loss.
Slovenia wins group with win and Slovakia draw (goal differential) or loss.

[InThisMoment]

Now to the playoffs, 8 second place teams from UEFA's groups 1-8 will have a home and home to determine the 4 advancers.

Russia, France, Ireland, and Bosnia and Herzegovina have already clinched a playoff spot.

Portugal can clinch a playoff spot with a win at home against Malta or a Sweden loss versus Albania. Sweden advances with a win and Portugal loss.

Greece can clinch a playoff spot with a win over Luxembourg or a Israel loss or draw at Switzerland. (see scenario for Greece winning group, in which case Switzerland would be in the playoffs). Israel needs a win and a Greece loss or draw. Latvia is techincally alive but needs a miracle.

Slovakia is in the playoffs if they lose or draw at Poland and Slovenia wins versus San Marino. Slovenia is in the playoffs with a win and Slovakia win, or a draw and Czech Republic draw or loss. Northern Ireland would need the earth and heavens to move to qualify.

Ukraine is in the playoffs with a win at Andorra or a Croatia draw or loss at Kazakstan. Croatia is in the playoffs with a win and a Ukraine loss.

[InThisMoment]

Last explanation post I promise:

The playoffs are seeded based on the FIFA World Rankings after Wednesday's games.

The current rankings are:

Russia 6
France 10
Greece 12
Portugal 17
Ukraine 25
Ireland 38
Slovakia 45
Bosnia 46
Slovenia 54

If 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, 3 plays 6, and 4 plays 5. That should give a decent idea who would play who.

[Phillth]

nice post. i cant effin wait till WC2010. it was the last WC that got me into soccer. is anyone going to south africa for the tourney?

[Jimmy0607]

Uruguay wins and qualifies fukk everybody else , good stuff man

[Jimmy0607]

Why do we have teams like Bahrain and New Zealand fighting for a spot, they are a waste of space

[Sportslover]

I've got a feeling that Uruguay might snatch a win against Argentina. Uruguay has scored 5 in their last 2, Argentina has conceded in their last 4, failed to score in their last 2 away games, failed to score in 4 of their away games and only scored 5 goals away from home. I think there's quite a bit of value in backing Uruguay. I will be very interested to see the outcome of this match and I can't wait to watch it unfold on TV.

[Squirrel]

I'm going to back the Argies to win it outright I think, they are being written off by too many people for my liking. Brazil got written off as a bad/old/declining team in 2002 when they were within 1 game of getting eliminated from qualifying, but they went on to win it. The Argies have some serious, serious talent its just a shame they have a fat, arrogant cokehead as a manager.

[treece]

Why do we have teams like Bahrain and New Zealand fighting for a spot, they are a waste of space

In reality there's only 12 teams that can win the World Cup. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Russia, France, Portugal, Spain, England, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Australia. Everyone else is wasting their time.

[Domestic]

Italia 2010!!!

Oh God, please no. Talk about undeserving 2006 winners.

[Squirrel]

In reality there's only 12 teams that can win the World Cup. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Russia, France, Portugal, Spain, England, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Australia. Everyone else is wasting their time.

STREWTH!!!

[kopite]

In reality there's only 12 teams that can win the World Cup. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Russia, France, Portugal, Spain, England, Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Australia. Everyone else is wasting their time.

Close - just drop Mexico, Russia, France, Portugal and Australia. Of the rest, the Cloggs always choke and the Poms will do their usual of qrtr or semi and bomb.

Look for an African team to go a long way.

Germany 2010

[Squirrel]

Can never write off teams that are used to the conditions, but the really top teams can always find a way to adapt after just one game.

[crisp]

Close - just drop Mexico, Russia, France, Portugal and Australia. Of the rest, the Cloggs always choke and the Poms will do their usual of qrtr or semi and bomb.

Look for an African team to go a long way.

Germany 2010

all those teams are real good and have stars galore. most of them don't try that hard in the qualifiers but when they go to south africa next year they will be playing for real. mexico was sleep walking early in the qualifiers but now they turned on the burners and are smoking everyone. they absolutely drilled costa rica 3-0 in costa rica, a real tough place to play at. portugal has too many big name players to list. russia, france and australia will get into the round of 16 but after that it doesn't look so good.

[CS-Cedrick]

What a great summary InThisMoment has concocted, this coming Wednesday will be a day full of thrills in all leagues, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL may have unexpected results as of Argentina having the chance of not going to the WC and also having Honduras making history attending to their first WC, although I'm 200% tico I do believe we deserve what we've got so far and therefore if we do not go to the WC it will then be very well deserved, we of course have the chance of winning but USA is a hard rival in their territory.

[Jimmy0607]

Did he just say that australia and mexico have a chance of winning

[Jimmy0607]

Argentina struggled to beat the worst team at home , Uruguay beat one of the best home teams (3000 meters altitude) and actually were down 1 0 , argentina has too many stars and their coach think he's the biggest star of them all , argentina never won a game in montevideo , Uruguay as we saw in Ecuador plays best when their back are against the wall , I'm pounding uruguay and play a small one on the draw

[pavyracer]

Why do we have teams like Bahrain and New Zealand fighting for a spot, they are a waste of space

Same reason why the US is qualifying. If the US was qualifying against European or South America teams they would never qualify for the World Cup.

[Jimmy0607]

Exactly pavy if we had america qualifiers not south and then central and north together some teams that always qualify like mexico and the us would struggle

[mariomonte]

Why do we have teams like Bahrain and New Zealand fighting for a spot, they are a waste of space

Simply politics: Blatter needs votes, and Fiji's vote is formally just as important as Brazil's.
One good thing about the South American qualification though is that every team can actually play football. Europeans "enjoy" way too many matches against quality teams like Andorra and Liechtenstein.

[InThisMoment]

Australia moved to Asia when previously they were in Oceania. This was so they would play better competition.

Because of that New Zealand was virtually the default Oceania candidate as all the other teams are very weak. FIFA actually took away the automatic Oceania qualifier (previously Australia) and made them face the winner of the Asian playoff.

Bahrain beat Saudi Arabia in the playoff for the right to face New Zealand for the WC berth.

So while you feel that these teams are not deserving, they have actually slightly improved what they had in previous qualifying as far as quality. It is called the WORLD cup because it is representative of all the regions. Chances are Europe or South America will have the winner from their region, but all the countries deserve the chance to qualify and compete.

[mariomonte]

Australia moved to Asia when previously they were in Oceania. This was so they would play better competition. Because of that New Zealand was virtually the default Oceania candidate as all the other teams are very weak. FIFA actually took away the automatic Oceania qualifier (previously Australia) and made them face the winner of the Asian playoff.

They didn't. Oceania always had a 0.5 spot, so Australia had to face an often difficult playoff. Their move to the Asian federation was actually to give them a "safer" qualification and to get more than 4 serious matches every 4 years.

Bahrain beat Saudi Arabia in the playoff for the right to face New Zealand for the WC berth. So while you feel that these teams are not deserving, they have actually slightly improved what they had in previous qualifying as far as quality. It is called the WORLD cup because it is representative of all the regions. Chances are Europe or South America will have the winner from their region, but all the countries deserve the chance to qualify and compete.

Nobody says that there should be no Asian team at the WORLD cup. The question is whether there should be 5.
All evidence of quality shows that Asian and North American qualifiers provide the weakest teams, so the "non-political" solution would be a common American qualification and 3 spots for Australasia.

[ji03]

Nice. Like looking at all the scenarios in which can qualify.

[lakerboy]

Argentina struggled to beat the worst team at home , Uruguay beat one of the best home teams (3000 meters altitude) and actually were down 1 0 , argentina has too many stars and their coach think he's the biggest star of them all , argentina never won a game in montevideo , Uruguay as we saw in Ecuador plays best when their back are against the wall , I'm pounding uruguay and play a small one on the draw

jimmy urugauy will not beat argentina in that game. the draw is a good pick but dont waste your money on uruguay.argentina have pedigree they know what it takes to qualify and trust me there is more behind it than the game itself. uruguay can still get in through the back door.this is the game where messi silences his critics

[Jimmy0607]

jimmy urugauy will not beat argentina in that game. the draw is a good pick but dont waste your money on uruguay.argentina have pedigree they know what it takes to qualify and trust me there is more behind it than the game itself. uruguay can still get in through the back door.this is the game where messi silences his critics

Argentina will not Win lakerboy , so dont waste your money on them , Im like 60 percent uruguay 40 for the draw

[smitch124]

Was the Bolivia/Brazil game really played at 12000 ft? I find that mind boggling

[lakerboy]

Argentina will not Win lakerboy , so dont waste your money on them , Im like 60 percent uruguay 40 for the draw

good luck jimmy

[InThisMoment]

Good post MarioMonte on the Oceania/Australia thing. I stand corrected.

I would equate the World Cup taking teams from the lesser-talented regions to the automatic small league bids in March Madness. While you could probably get better teams, it would take a little something away from the flavor. Besides like people complaining about the 6th place Big Ten or ACC team not getting an invite, for the most part you just have to finish in the upper-half of your region to qualify or at least go the playoff qualifications. Really if you aren't in the top half you aren't deserving in general.

[Jimmy0607]

good luck jimmy

Good luck to you as well