Max Soccer Handicapping Thread

[demize21]

Parlay (2 Teams) 10/16/09 00:01 ET
bet 100.00 to win 223.00 Result: Pending
AlemanniaAachen(BundesLiga2)
ArminiaBielefeld(BundesLiga2) 10/16/09(12:00 ET)
ArminiaBielefeld(BundesLiga2) -142
Ghana(U20WorldCup)(LiveInRunning)
Brazil(U20WorldCup) 10/16/09(14:00 ET)
Brazil(U20WorldCup) -111

[mats9863]

2009-10-17 Lokeren - Cercle Brugge


On first sight this fixture you'd less expect an over of upcoming playday.

Not for me...

One reason is that both teams should win, because they are to low ranked for their ambitions.

Every homegame is crucial and could decide about the stability of the coach's place on the bench if the Lokeren team isn't preforming well.
On that point Cercle-coach (De Boeck) is safe.
For me this is one of the best coaches in the country.

He knows what he's talking about, he gets the respect he deserves and is very ambitious, also this season.
Cercle is currently 10th on the table, and that's not good enough for Coach De Boeck, who's aiming on a 5th place again this season. He knows this is a game they are capable of winning it.
So, both coaches will be motivated to win the game.

It's Jankovic his first year as coach from Lokeren (he also coached the last 4 games last year).
Those 4 games last year he made an impression by playing offensively and with young players. (He won a game on Brugge-field with 2-3).
The chairman can lay-out lots of pressure on the coach, and this time it isn't going to be different.
The coach has a clear task for saturday-evening: WIN.

Lokeren do have 1 player who's preforming really strong and that's leftwinger: Smajic (transferred from relegated Dender).
But it can't be forced by on player.
It's quite possible Lokeren could win against Cercle, but he knows he has to play offensive, and Cercle-coach De Boeck also knows it Lokeren will put some extra effort to create chances, but he likes that, he's a kind off coach who will analyse the potential spaces the game will bring, to take full advantage of it.



by mats9863

[mats9863]

Vitoria - Nautico

I like this match between two good teams.
Both the teams want to conquer important goals.
So we could see as the Vitoria offense is very very good as well as Nautico defense.
I think that....my conclusion is on my spreadsheet

[mats9863]

Pick

England Premiere league

Liverpool - Manchester United


Liverpool have lost 4 games in a row for the first time since 1987, and
I find it hard to believe they will lose another match even though the visiting
team is Manchester Utd. At the same time Liverpool's form makes it less likely
that they will be good enough to win against a top team like Manu, so I feel a
draw is the most likely outcome.

Both teams have several players whom are doubtful for this match Rooney, Giggs,
Evra and Fletcher have knocks for Manu, and Torres,Gerrard and Johnson for
Liverpool. I guess most of these players will play, but none of them will have 100%
top form in this match. For Liverpool I dont think who they send on the pitch is the most
important thing in this match, the most important thing is that they have to fight their heart
outs, against a slightly better team and I think that will give them 1 point here.

The games between these two teams are always tight at Anfield, and the 8 latest
meetings here in the league have been decided by 1 goal or less, and that will
probably be the case again

[shantystar]

Man utd is the bet.

[mats9863]

My Picks

Italy- B League

Lecce - Reggina

It represents the match between two teams running for different goals : the fight for promotion Lecce ' s supposed to fight for promotion , Reggina the staying.
In this week Reggina's just changed its coach .. and no one knows how this change will affect the players performances.
Lecce is coming from a roundabout victory on Gallipoli ...

My prediction is .... on my spreadsheet

Gl

[mats9863]

France-Ligue 1

St. Etienne - Lyon

according to France Football (30.10.2009-19:40) this is Lyon squad that went to St'Etienne:

Lyon: Lloris, Vercoutre - Cree, Réveillère, Clerc, Cissokho, Kolodziejczak, Toulalan, Gonalons - Makoun, Kallstrom, Pjanic, Bastos, Delgado, Ederson, Govou - Tafer, Gomis, Lisandro

Kallstrom, Lloris, Lisandro, Delgado, Cissokho have recovered from groin injuries.

Boumsong, Anderson, Bodmer have stayed home and 100% won't play.

now to sum it up:
- it's a derby
- Lyon in poor domestic form
- 3 important players missing, several just recovered
+ 5 players still missing for St'Etienne (Sanogo, Dabo, Perrin, Monsoreau, Bayal)
+ more individual quality in Lyon squad
+ Lyon never lost against St'Etienne in last 10 years

On my spreadsheet...

GL

[mats9863]

France ligue 1

FC SOCHAUX - PSG


Its 9th game in this season for PSG, 11th for Sochaux. Home team Sochaux have 15 points, PSG have 13 points. Its can be one more bad season for PSG.
In new season both teams didnt made great results.

PSG started great, had three wins a a row and then lost away against Monaco and then drew three games in a row again. In last round PSG lost 0-1 away against Toulouse.

Sochaux started bad this season, lost many games in the first part of the season but finally won three games in a row (1-0 home le mans, 2-0 away Lyon and 1-0 home Lorient).

PSG is still dangerous and they need to win some games to win confidence and start to win again. After 4 games without win, tihs game away agains Sochaux can be nice opportunity.
As always my pick will be on my spreadsheet

[pitman]

GL

[mats9863]

England - Championship

Sheffield United - Newcastle United

Both teams have been in terrible form lately and this match is very important for both teams, so we can expect very tight and interesting game. Sheffield used to have a great defence, but at the moment they just can't manage to not to concede. Team is playing really bad and they have serious problems with injuries. Newcastle is also playing bad after a great start of the season. They have managed to win just 2 of 6 games recently, but they definately can fight for a promotion, they just need to get their game together. After a win in last game against Doncaster (2:1) players should gain some confidence and that should definately help today against poor Sheffield. I think we will see a lot of goals today and a very tight match, but in the end Newcastle is playing better at the moment and Sheffield will have serious misses in lineup, so i invite you all on my spreadsheet

[demize21]

i agree

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

I TOOK SHEFFIELD +155. i hate soccer though and i always sucked at it. but i might start playing again. this one guy at drug testing used to do like meth or coke, i forget cuz i was 18. he was all yeah i do coke run around play soccer. he was mexican.

[demize21]

I TOOK SHEFFIELD +155. i hate soccer though and i always sucked at it. but i might start playing again. this one guy at testing used to do like meth or coke, i forget cuz i was 18. he was all yeah i do coke run around play soccer. he was mexican.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

i guess you're laughing at my mexxi friend and not my Sheffield play! Yeah he was pending deportation, but he's still go down to like, otay, at the fields, and run around on meth or coke playing soccer on the weekend. Then he would tell me yeah it was so fun. I do coke, run around, play soccer. it fun. He'd tell me all this, and I was the one drug testing him!!

[illmatick]

nice call mats

[demize21]

i guess you're laughing at my mexxi friend and not my Sheffield play! Yeah he was pending deportation, but he's still go down to like, otay, at the fields, and run around on meth or coke playing soccer on the weekend. Then he would tell me yeah it was so fun. I do coke, run around, play soccer. it fun. He'd tell me all this, and I was the one drug testing him!!

yea ofcourse i never laugh at a loss i want us all to beat the books that was a funny story

[mats9863]

England-premiere league

West Ham - Aston Villa


This game caught my attention since it was on my mind when I saw this postponed match from EPL. Also I was surprised that in league that has not big percentage of draws this two teams have 12 from last 18 games draw between each other.That means from 3 games they draw 2 and they both have 2 draws in a row in last two games in Premier League.I know that every tradition is to be broken.
West Ham is in more need of points but Aston Villa is in great form and rarely losses.They have only two defeats this season, one in first round and one loss from Blackburn with last minute equalizer. West Ham shows improvement in theire game but are still without win at home.I know that both will fight for three points till the last wistle. And that tradition that I mentioned is really special.
As always c'mon on my spreadsheet..........

[demize21]

whats the wager its not postrd on spreadsheet

[mats9863]

whats the wager its not postrd on spreadsheet

Everythin' is ok on the spreadsheet. Odds= +100/+165 for 75$ each

[mats9863]

England- championship

DERBY - COVENTRY


Both teams are at the bottom of the league. It 'll be a game rich of goals, or

perhaps even with no goals.

However, the Coventry show to be a better team as away team than home team.

So I would suggest to you all for going to my spreadsheet ...

GL

[mats9863]

France Ligue 1

Sochaux - Lens


Sochaux at home scored 8 goals and conceded 12 and still not a draw in 11 matches. Lens scored 3 away goals and conceded 11 and still no tie either ... Lens is the Sochaux's black cat. Both teams are among those who have played the greatest number of championships in Ligue 1. There were 45 Sochaux-Lens in history.
17 wins for hosts and 18 for Lens! Lens is undefeated at Sochaux last 5 years (with 4 wins and 1 draw) and I think tonight it will continue. Lens is the only team who have a positive goal's balance scored at Sochaux (73 scored, 69 conceded).
During the last 10 matches, Sochaux has won only once in 2002.

Wallemme will compose a team that will focus to the attack with a 4-3-3 system. Sochaux plays with the same system. We should see the goals tonight. I'm very tempted to play the draw but I prefer the over.

That's enough for editing my pick on he spradsheet
GL

[mats9863]

Italy- SERIE A

Bari - Livorno

Bari has advantage in this derby of new teams in Seria A.Hosts are playing very good tactically and good football, which gives them good place in Seria A at this moment.In their 11 matches up to now Bari got (4-7-0) and (6:0) in the first halfs .This is amazing.On the other hand Livorno got 7 draws in the first halfs in their 11 matches.So i think that these two teams will wait for their moment and will play slow and save football.Livorno will play defensively for sure and will try to grab very important point for them in their fight to avoid the relegtion.Also other important fact is that Bari hadn't conceeded a single goal in the first half up to now and Livorno had scored only 1 goal in the first half.I think that this match will be under for sure and the goals will be scored in the second half.
Good luck

[ACoochy]

Nice hit there mats on Bari-Livorno

[smitch124]

Mats, today your boys from Lecce play at Torino. How do you see their chances?

[mats9863]

Italian Serie B

Turin- Lecce

Hopefully we could assist to a lively game since Lecce and Turin both were in Serie A last year.
Lecce did 4 over and 1 under playing away.
Turin did 2 over and 4 under playing home.
Both Lecce and Turin get a very good attack and defense.
Turin coach promised that we will see a team willing to make their fans forget the Trieste lost.
Lecce never lost a game playing at night.
Moreover Lecce has always scored away.. and Turin should do it for winning the game.
Surely an Over game between two good teams facing to outdone.
My pick on the spreadsheet….

[mats9863]

turin - lecce 2-2

[mats9863]

Italy-italy cup

Siena - Grosseto

They are two teams playin' different tournaments.
Siena's playin' Italian Serie A and actually it did come across a not good period.
Its players are not in a good shape so that the team is close to the relegation
zone because of ugly results achieved so far.
Grosseto's playin' Italian Serie B and it occupies the half ranking.
It gets very good defenders but no smart forwards : its priority playin' is based upon the collective .
I guess it may cause some issue in a Serie A team that 's not in so good shape.
GL

[mats9863]

Siena -Grosseto 0-0 HT
ODD +100

Hopefully someone read my spreadsheet and can enjoy with me now.

[mats9863]

England: League Two

DARLINGTON v BURTON

There's been some improvement to Darlington's level of performance following Steve Staunton's arrival, and they've even recorded a first win of the season - 2:1 over Shrewsbury last time at home, two rounds ago - actually a largely impressive result that should give some hope at least, that it's not a mission impossible to really start turning things around while there's still plenty of points to play for.

A game against Burton now should suit Darlo quite nicely as it is highly beatable opposition, even if the Brewers' season so far (their first ever at this level) is surprisingly good and they certainly won't be afraid to try and take charge of the match right from the start.

But the homeside, showing a far greater fighting spirit now than they did over the first several rounds, should have the courage to stand up for themselves and make things difficult for their visitors and all in all, the 3+ on offer for a homewin in this game here - one between a hosting side that might just have a few more positive results coming over the next period and a visiting side that is probably over-achieving, and likely in for results more to their expected normal before long - look quite valuable and ought to be worth backing.

[mats9863]

Italy- SERIE B

Lecce -Padova


It'll be a very lively match between two teams who like to play head on.
Neither has significant defections ... I think that Lecce 's experience players
(just a relegated teams) might be put in question by the Padua players motivations.
Telling that I ' ll invite you all on my spreadsheet as usually
GL

[mats9863]

LECCE - PADOVA 0-0 HT
47.27% win
Another won game...:-)

[mats9863]

Argentine Premier Division


Racing Club - Estudiantes La Plata

Racing is currently 19th in the table after 14 rounds tied with last positioned Tigre, with an overall record 1-5-7 and just 8 points gained so far. 6 out of these 8 were gained at home where the scoring record is 9-7 in 6 games, with an average of 2.6 goals scored in home matches.

Estudiantes is 4th with an overall record 8-2-4 and 26 points gained so far, 6 points behind leaders Banfield. Away performances are not that good with only 10 points collected out of 26 and a scoring record 12-12 in 8 games, with an average of 3 goals per away match.

Estudiantes is undoubtly more in-form than today's opponents, having collected 16 points in their last overall 10 matches, while Racing was able to collect just 6.

In all home matches so far (6), Racing scored at least 1 goal, while Estudiantes was able to find the back of the net at least once in 6 out of 8 matches played away.

2 out of 4 H2H played at Racing home soil ended in 3 or more goals while 1 was close to it (2-0). In total, 10 goals scored in 4 matches which is an average of 2.5 per H2H.

If not for a not so good away performances for Estudiantes, I would have gone for straight away win, but given the scoring record of both teams, I have reason to believe it will be an open match 'cause both teams are motivated to win, obviously for totally opposite reasons and thus I expect some goals.

Last consideration: when Racing met at home a team on the same level than Estudiantes (Independiente, currently 5th), it ended 1-2 for visitors while when Estudiantes met away a team on the same level than Racing (Huracan currently 18th and Godoy Cruz currently 14th) it ended with 2 victories for visitors, respectively 1-4 and 1-2. So all 3 matches ended with 3 or more goals.

Both to score is a good option too, given that both teams scored at least once in 12 out of 14 matches played at home (Racing) and away (Estudiantes).

GL

[pinnerpsk]

Mats I agree with you on Racing vs Estudiantes. I think there will be at least 2 goals scored and probably 3.

My book still has the over at 2, but some tough juice at -165!

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice write-up Mats. Many of the same thoughts I had when I looking at this one. I"m looking for a little afternoon delight with nothing much to do. Split line available at -111, OVER 2/2.5. Price may rise as some are looking for some action!

[Wilforth]

I like Estudiantes ML in that game. Over could cash as it appears neither team will keep a clean sheet.