Euro 2024 Preview Futures & Picks

[DiamondJack]

With exactly 40 days to go to kick off books are beginning to post lines. I will use this thread to post my plays throughout this tournament beginning with a betting preview of each group.
Group A
GERMANY
Despite their two recent results both wins versus France and the Netherlands their squad remains unproven. Not having to qualify has its disadvantages. Recently appointed Julian Nagelsmann is also unproven having been only at the job since September. Home advantage and squad depth should back the Germans to top the group but I would not be surprised if they slipped up in a game versus the Swiss or Hungary.
SWITZERLAND
The Swiss always seem to qualify and are a team tough to beat. Injuries to 2 key players Schar & Zakaria both with hamstrings will be a tough blow. Having their Germany game last might help. Only 2 wins in their past 9 games including draws with Kosovo & Belarus along with a loss to Romania makes me shy away from backing this side in making any sort of a deep run in June.
HUNGARY
The best inform team in this group that will go as far as the Liverpool midfielder Szoboszlai will take them. Hungary are undefeated in their last 14 games. In their last 3 recent head to head meetings with Germany they won 1-0 and tied the other two 1-1 and 2-2 . Its hard to find a side that has that kind of record versus a top side like Germany. This is my "darkhorse" team of the tournament.
SCOTLAND
The opposite of Hungary when it comes to form, the Scots have not won a game since beating Cyprus back in September. They are winless in their past seven and have scheduled friendlies versus poor sides Gibraltar and Finland. The squad is also riddled with injuries all at the wrong time. Tiernay, Patterson, McTominay, Armstrong and Ferguson are all in doubt.

[DiamondJack]

1. Scotland to finish bottom of Group A @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Bet365

For all the aforementioned reasons getting plus money for Scotland to finish bottom equals value and is the first future bet I'm locking in today.

[DiamondJack]

Group B
SPAIN
Always a side with top class players but can they get it done this time around?. Recent form is suspect 9 wins 4 losses and 2 draws in their past 15 games in all competitions. Two scheduled friendlies in June versus crappy teams in Andorra & Northern Ireland wont help. Spanish manager Luis de La Fuente has only been in charge for a dozen games and he likes to go with a young side having managed the youth sides in Spain the past decade. I don't think its 16 year old Lamine Yamal's time yet.
ITALY
I backed the Italians the last Euros and they delivered. I do not expect them to repeat as champions this time around. Another recently appointed new manager here in Luciano Spalletti who got the job in September is more attack oriented which could spell doom versus the likes of Croatia & Spain. His 5-2-1 record is "meh". They advance in what I like to coin the group of draws as it looks like 5 points to each side not named Albania.
CROATIA
I expect them along with Italy & Spain to advance from this group. Head to head wise Italy and Croatia tied the last 3. Croatia and Spain tied their past 2 games eventually losing in extra time and penalties. One has to respect Croatia who finished 3rd this past world cup, second the prior world cup, second in the Nations league and first in some made up tournament of nations this January.
ALBANIA
They were unlucky to be drawn into this group of heavyweights and thus in my opinion don't stand a chance. Form wise winless in the past 4 as they tied with the Faroe Islands and Moldova and lost to Chile and Sweden. They have great young players in Muci, Broja, Asllani and Kumbulla all 24 and under so the future looks good. However I see all 3 games as losses here and I will try to find zero points for Albania once that prop is up and about.

[DiamondJack]

2. Croatia to win Euro 2024 @ 41.00/+4000 (1/2 u) Bet365

It is a "pizza money" bet for me here based purely on value. I don't expect them to win but they will advance from this group and then from then on who knows? This is a side that has been a tournament team lately. This is a last ride for Real Madrid's Luca Modric and Zlatko Dalic the manager has been around forever. You can cash out or hedge once the K/O rounds begin and pocket CLV.

[DiamondJack]

Group C

ENGLAND
This team will top Group C with ease. Massive talent and depth at all positions. Southgate has kept the egos in check and I think this side is primed to bring home the trophy. So yes I know its chalky so I will not bet 4.25/+335 for them to win it all. I will do just like it was with Argentina at the world cup. You can do the roll over parley in the knock out rounds or wait for a bad result in the group stage to get a better price.
DENMARK
Its hard to gage this team lately. They did beat both Serbia 3-0 lately and beat Slovenia 2-1 along with a 1-1 result also with Slovenia. What worries me is that in the past 2 years they have only won 2 away games and that was versus Finland & San Marino. I just cant trust a team that lost to Kazakhstan, Australia & Northern Ireland recently. No value to qualify and if they do it might be an early exit for the Danes once they face quality opposition.
SLOVENIA
The odds on favourite to finish bottom of this group. Form wise this team just beat Portugal 2-0 back in March and has only lost once in their past 10 games. They have a generational keeper in Atletico Madrid's Jan Oblak and a brilliant center forward Ben Sesko that will surely soon be in a "big club". Manager Matjaz Kek has been around since 2018 and his team first approach along with solid defending has brought the small nations best results lately.
SERBIA
My pick for a possibility of implosion here and a bottom of group finish. Their top 2 players Savic & Mitrovic are cashing cheques in Saudi Arabia. Their recent form is also suspect with a 4-4-2 record that include 2 losses to Hungary one to Belgium and a 4-0 drubbing to Russia in March. Serbia has awful defending and only managed 1 clean sheet in their past 10 games and that was a 1-0 result versus Cyprus.

[DiamondJack]

3. Serbia to finish bottom of Group C @ 2.50/+150 (1u) Bet365

Their last 4 wins came versus minnows Jordan, Lithuania, Montenegro and Cyprus. three of the four managed to score against them. I cant trust a team in any tournament without defense.

[k13]

Poland not to qualify out of group.
Poland to finish last in group.
ML on any team they play.
-1.5 on any team they play.

Free money.

[DiamondJack]

Poland not to qualify out of group.
Poland to finish last in group.
ML on any team they play.
-1.5 on any team they play.

Free money.

Spoken like a long suffering Poland fan

[DiamondJack]

Group D


FRANCE
Co-favourites along with England at these Euros, France have a winning record versus all these other group members. All recent results a 2-1 win and a 4-1 win over the Netherlands. A 2-1 win over Austria along with a 1-1 draw in the Nations league. A 3-1 elimination of Poland in the last world cup round of 16. No value in the futures market here. Deschamps has cemented himself as a legend for France. Only an exit in penalties to another European power would knock them out as Hugo Lloris is getting up there at 35 years old.
NETHERLANDS
Koemans is back as the manager making that 7 managers in the past 7 years. Shady recent form with 6 losses in the past 13 games albeit to quality sides is a worrying trend. The talent is there with the likes of Van Dijk, De Ligt, Frimpong & Simons, however the Dutch do lack a top quality keeper. I can see them making a deep run or crashing out early so no wagers from me at the moment.
AUSTRIA
The Austrians have had a great run of form lately, having only lost once 3-2 to Belgium in their last 14 games. It has been very much a "team effort" in qualification. What has me writing this team off is the lack of any goalkeeper. Their top choice Schlager has a knee injury and if he cant go its down to Pentz who plays in the Danish league. The injuries continue with their best player David Alaba out injured. Their best 3 centre backs Danso, Lienhart and Wober are injured. Their midfielder Xaver Schlager is also out. Early exit beckons and perhaps even a bottom of the group bet pending more updates on the key injuries heading up to the tournament.
POLAND
This side barley qualified having had to go through the playoffs. The blame was with the disaster that was Fernando Santos who just came over to collect a cheque. The Polish federation fired him in October and since then the side has gone 6 games unbeaten. In this hard group perhaps with no expectations they pull of a minor miracle, but I would not bet on it. For the likes of Lewandowski & Szczesny this could be their last major tournament. Having to play France last will be a boost especially if they are playing an infirmary squad that is Austria who Poland did recently beat 1-0 in Vienna along with a draw back in Poland.

[DiamondJack]

Group E

BELGIUM
A team in transition from the "golden generation" to now a mix of new and old. They are now managed by unproven manager Domenico Tedesco as far as international coaching is concerned. Form wise Belgium are undefeated in their past 13 games going back to their loss to Morocco in the last world cup. They will miss injured goalkeeper Courtois who is ruled out to a long term injury. Fellow veteran Jan Vetronghen is also in doubt do to a groin injury. Hard to say if Belgium crash out early or go on a deep run. This is a watch and see scenario for me so no wagers prior to kick off.
UKRAINE
Having to play all their qualifiers away from home due to obvious reasons have brought this team more cohesion. Their only loss in the last 10 games was a 2-1 loss away in Italy. Ukraine have a solid group of players. Artem Dovbyk of Girona is leading La Liga in scoring his teammate at Girona Tsygankov is also having a stellar season. If you line up this team man for man versus Belgium I would see no gap between the sides. Ukraine play Belgium last which is also a plus as both teams could be coming in with 6 points playing the last game for group winner. This is my other "darkhorse" team along with Hungary that I will be backing all through the group stages and beyond.
ROMANIA
Along with Slovakia these the 2 sides will battle it out in the last game of the group stages to try to get 3rd place that could up in a suicidal draw eliminating both. Aside from Radu Dragusin the centre back from Spurs, this team lacks quality to get anywhere in this tournament. A mixed bag of results form wise mostly draws with Kosovo, Israel, Belarus, Switzerland and Northern Ireland leaves me doubtful that this side will do well in Germany.
SLOVAKIA
On paper a side slightly better then Romania. Centre back David Hancko along with Napoli midfielder Stanislaw Lobotka are the 2 key players on this side that will be tough to score against. Slovakia's recent from is a decent 7 wins 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 15 games. The losses were 2 to Portugal and one to Austria. Led by manager Francesco Calzona who was also hired By Napoli in February I give him the edge over Romania's Edward Lordanescu who only has domestic experience.

[DiamondJack]

---

4. Romania to finish bottom of Group E @ 3.50/+250 (1u) Bet365

It is basically a coin flip between Slovakia and Romania as to who finishes bottom here. The odds here are out of whack so I'll take the value on Slovakia.

[DiamondJack]

Group F

PORTUGAL
I truly believe this is the best squad Portugal has ever put on the pitch. Outside of France and England on paper this squad has what it takes to reach the finals. Form wise in the past 12 games they only lost once to Slovenia, the other 11 were all wins, nine of them to nil. Head to head wise recently they won 4-0 and 2-0 versus the Czechs and a 3-1 victory over Turkey. They should top this group with ease despite being managed by former Belgium manager Roberto Martinez who in my opinion is the only weakness this side has.
CZECHIA
A mixed bag of results in qualification has led to the Czechs appointing a new manager Ivan Hasek just in January. He previously managed Lebanon and prior to that was managing across the middle east for the past decade. Back in 2009 he was the head of the Czech FA and appointed himself as the manager of the national team. Despite having decent talent in Leverkusen trio Schick, Hlozek and goalkeeper Matej Kovar along with captain and West Ham defensive midfielder Tomas Saucek I just cant trust the manager.
TURKIYE
They did defeat the Czechs recently in 2022 2-1 and on paper they are the second best team in this group. Vincenzo Montella has been the new manager since September and the Italian former striker is more focused on an attacking style. This has led to good and bad results lately losing 6-1 to Austria and winning versus Germany 3-2. I will look for totals and lean to the overs when it comes to their matches.
GEORGIA
Debutants at the tournament who will look to cause an upset or two in the group stage. Their squad is led by a trio of young stars in Valencia keeper Mamardashvili along with Napoli winger Kvitzha Kvaratskhelia and Metz forward Georges Mikautadze all 23 years old. The manager is Frenchman Willy Sagnol who previously was the caretaker manager of Bayern Munich and Bordeaux manager. Form wise in Georgia's last six games their only loss came to Spain 3-1, so I believe they can cause an upset and even maybe qualify out of this group.

[DiamondJack]

5. Two team Parlay ENG & POR to win their groups @ 2.02/+102 (1u) Bet365

England and Portugal should win their groups easily so I'm parlaying them both at plus money.

[DiamondJack]

6. Ukraine Group winner E @ 6.50/+550 (1u) Bet365

They looked really good versus Germany today playing to a 0-0 draw. Playing Belgium last in the group stage brings big value odds wise that I will not pass up.

[DiamondJack]

7. Team Exact Points - Albania ZERO @ 2.37/+137 (1u) Bet365

I'm sorry but in this group I give Albania a 50/50 chance to snag a point so getting plus money on this prop is value in my books

[DiamondJack]

8. Germany Total Team Goals UNDER 10.5 @ 1.72/-139 (1u) Bet365

Germany's biggest weakness is a lack of a quality striker. Who is going to score for this team?. The total goals set at 10.5 equals that of France and England who actually have players that can put the ball in the back of the net.

[DiamondJack]

9. Player Total Goals Under 1.5 Oliver Giroud @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Bet365

The 37 year old MLS bound Giroud has only scored in 2 of the last 10 matches that he actually featured in for France. One of those games was a 14-0 win versus Gibraltar. France has a Mbappe, Griezmann and Thuram. Giroud might only play in one game or come off the bench.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Wow, Jack. When it comes to Soccer content, you + Franz are real pros. I'll be tuning in.

Re: Germany, I thought people took Klose for granted. Look at his strike-rate. After he retired, the Germans struggled to find consistent scorers.

In some ways, I view GERM as being similar to England. Name players but so often they're over-hyped.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I hear you on Slovenia. My scorecard:

1) GK Oblak is a stud.
2) It's a country of only 2Mill. I'm still amazed that Luka won the Euros in Basketball.
3) The top goal-scorer is 36 years old. So my question: Who is going to score for this team?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

7. Team Exact Points - Albania ZERO @ 2.37/+137 (1u) Bet365

I'm sorry but in this group I give Albania a 50/50 chance to snag a point so getting plus money on this prop is value in my books

Jack, been doing my research on the Euros. Came across this note:
*Albania's two key qualifying wins were a little deceiving:
1) 2-0 vs Poland. Goals came against the run of play.
2) 3-0 vs CZERep. Czechs had to play L60 minutes of the game with ten-men.

At face-value, Albania looks like a real Outsider to me.

[DiamondJack]

Wow, Jack. When it comes to Soccer content, you + Franz are real pros. I'll be tuning in.

Re: Germany, I thought people took Klose for granted. Look at his strike-rate. After he retired, the Germans struggled to find consistent scorers.

In some ways, I view GERM as being similar to England. Name players but so often they're over-hyped.

Germany would be almost a lock to get to the semis from then on however I don't give them too much of a chance
Best of luck in the Euros Chucky

[DiamondJack]

GERMANY V SCOTLAND

I don't fancy either side here as I think they are both overrated by the books. Germany is the rightful favourite as both teams recently played the Netherlands with Scotland losing 4-0 and Germany winning 2-1. Both sides also faced off versus France recently where Germany won 2-0 where as Scotland lost 4-1. I think Scotland will defend and try to frustrate Germany with the host side eventually coming out on top. The opening game of the history of the euros has never gone over 3 goals.

1. Germany/Scotland UNDER 3 total goals @ 1.70/-143 (1u) Pinnacle

LEAN
Scotland 1st Half +0.5 @ 2.10/+110

[Headsterx]

Love it! Tailing on the u3.

[DiamondJack]

Love it! Tailing on the u3.

Lets get it

[k13]

Bet everything against Poland.

[korki]

DJ lean "Scotland 1st Half +0.5 @ 2.10/+1" you play it for 1U? You dont have fear from "homefield" of Germany team?

[-FlawlessKid]

Always a pleasure to follow your analysis DJ, much appreciated. GL this Euro's!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Always a pleasure to follow your analysis DJ, much appreciated. GL this Euro's!

DJ is a great poster. Will be interesting to see how this Euro plays out.

[korki]

Guys sorry for offtipc, but someone now who is with guys "Jsnep7"? Is he still alive?

[Headsterx]

DJ lean "Scotland 1st Half +0.5 @ 2.10/+1" you play it for 1U? You dont have fear from "homefield" of Germany team?

I can’t speak for DJ but I’ve been following Germany for a few games. And what I saw was they are slow and getting the game going. The last few games I saw of them they were scoreless in the first half. Scotland looks good for the first half.

[Headsterx]

Poland not to qualify out of group.
Poland to finish last in group.
ML on any team they play.
-1.5 on any team they play.

Free money.

Tailing this pick and also taking France to win it all (+400).

[DiamondJack]

Bet everything against Poland.

They were going to lose to the Netherlands regardless if Lewandowski was playing or not. I'm going to wait and see who Austria starts before fading Poland

[DiamondJack]

Always a pleasure to follow your analysis DJ, much appreciated. GL this Euro's!

[DiamondJack]

DJ lean "Scotland 1st Half +0.5 @ 2.10/+1" you play it for 1U? You dont have fear from "homefield" of Germany team?

I'm betting on nervous energy and a slow start with Germany eventually winning and breaking Germany down in the second half.

[k13]

They were going to lose to the Netherlands regardless if Lewandowski was playing or not. I'm going to wait and see who Austria starts before fading Poland

They can start the woman's team and still win.