Sportsguy04 Soccer Thread

[sportsguy04]

I will be keeping track of all my plays and money won or lost.

I will be starting out with a $50 bankroll.

Tail/Fade --Please give some insight if you choose, Im fairly new to soccer betting, mainly a NBA,MLB,NFL guy.

Will have plays up closer to game times.


Starting Bankroll: $50

[dwest718]

Don't really want to start a thread of my own because I'm really gambling and not really betting when it comes to WCQ and Confed. Cup. I am up money but have no set bet size or strategy. I have been making very large bets on large moneylines that I can't really justify.

But, I'll go ahead and post my leans here since we're both on Bodog and you asked for some of my picks.

Without researching Confederations Cup games in detail, today I'm looking at:
Algeria Pick and U2.5
Kenya ML
Morocco ML and -1 or -1.5
Ghana ML
Burkina Faso Draw and O2.5
Nigeria Pick and U2.5

The ones I bolded are my "best bets" so far. As far as Confderations Cup goes, I think I may like New Zealand +1.5 and Spain -0.5 but I havn't looked much yet.

[dwest718]

Here is a website with a ton of interesting news and information that I often use:

http://goal.com/en/

Just dig around for Africa WCQ and Confederations Cup news.

[sportsguy04]

Looks good. Im assuming Bodog will give us the option of Pick along with the ML?

[sportsguy04]

It appears as if it is a bit easier to make money off soccer then it is baseball? College basketball is my moneymaker. Baseball has been killing me.

[dwest718]

I've deposited around $2500 online over the past few years. I'm very small stakes... but I've lost >$1000 betting baseball. It's a killer. Lost a good bit betting NBA and Champions League too.

Stick to college sports and NFL... over the summer find someone to tail and bet a few obscure soccer matches if you're an addict like I am. Bet a baseball game occasionally if you feel you have to.

I've found it's easier to pick winners in soccer but it's hard to remain profitable because it's hard to diagnose good lines in soccer. Living in the US, we really can't watch (or often even bet) the more obscure leagues and instead are stuck betting those that the public absolutely hammers. This can lead to lines that are either very sharp or very skewed. I hope what I'm saying makes some sense.

[sportsguy04]

I've deposited around $2500 online over the past few years. I'm very small stakes... but I've lost >$1000 betting baseball. It's a killer. Lost a good bit betting NBA and Champions League too.

Stick to college sports and NFL... over the summer find someone to tail and bet a few obscure soccer matches if you're an addict like I am. Bet a baseball game occasionally if you feel you have to.

I've found it's easier to pick winners in soccer but it's hard to remain profitable because it's hard to diagnose good lines in soccer. Living in the US, we really can't watch (or often even bet) the more obscure leagues and instead are stuck betting those that the public absolutely hammers. This can lead to lines that are either very sharp or very skewed. I hope what I'm saying makes some sense.

Yes it all makes sense. I agree what your saying. I deposit more the I receve in payouts. Ya Football season is usuall profitable for me also.

[TurkzZ]

good work man, also for mls previews http://soccernet.espn.go.com/section?id=mls&cc=5739 ,

[sportsguy04]

Day #1 Early Plays, more plays to come at 1pm:

Algeria ML +250 Risk $6 to win $15

Kenya -.5 (-105) Risk $15 to win $14.29

[dwest718]

Slept through the kick off of Algeria-Zambia and pissed about it.

Bet Kenya -0.5 (-105) as well.

Will post more bets as I make them this afternoon.

[dwest718]

I bet:
Morocco ML (-225)
Morocco -1 (-155)
Morocco O2.5 (+130) [small bet]
Ghana ML (-160)
Burkina Faso O2.5 (-120) [small bet]
Nigeria Pick (+120) [small bet]

I figure Morocco will score at least 2 goals on a weak Togo team... whether they put in a 3rd or not will decide that O2.5 bet. Fairly frustrated that I fell asleep at 5am, slept through the beginning of my work shift, and woke up AS the Algeria match was kicking off. Would've won both the side (+0.5) and total (U2.5)... had the bet on my screen but didn't submit it.

[RoagBettor]

Anyone like Morocco 1H for even money?

[sportsguy04]

Four Stars to Miss game for Ghana

"Stephen Appiah, Inter's Sulley Muntari, Fulham's John Paintsil and Baffour Gyan of Russia's FC Saturn are all out of Ghana's Group D encounter against Sudan."

2 of them have injuries and 2 have yellow card suspensions.


This worries me a little, however I love the over 2.5!

[sportsguy04]

Adding:

Morrocco -1 (-155) Risk $16 to win $10.32

[sportsguy04]

Anyone like Morocco 1H for even money?

Love it, my book doesnt have 1H lines, but Morocco will have a 1-0 lead at half.

[sportsguy04]

Day #1 Early Plays, more plays to come at 1pm:

Algeria ML +250 Risk $6 to win $15

Kenya -.5 (-105) Risk $15 to win $14.29

2-0 to start my soccer journies and to build my bankroll!

Algeria had a nice ML as they win 2-0.
Kenya barely hung on after burying a PK to go up 2-1.


Will update bankroll at end of each night.

[dwest718]

Nice start.

Ghana is one of the few teams in Africa that actually travels well and even missing 3 starters, they still completely outclass Sudan. I can see 2-1... but I wouldn't lay too heavy on the over. Ghana would have to score 2 goals away... no easy feat.

[sportsguy04]

Along with the Morrocco play, I lean:

Ghana -1 (+120)
Ivory Coast ML -130
Ivory Coast/Faso Over 2.5 (-120)

Love Nigeria to beat Tunisia! Cant decide on whether to play the PK at +120 or the ML at +220! This game is going to be a 1 goal win.

Iraq -1
Spain -.5

[sportsguy04]

Nice start.

Ghana is one of the few teams in Africa that actually travels well and even missing 3 starters, they still completely outclass Sudan. I can see 2-1... but I wouldn't lay too heavy on the over. Ghana would have to score 2 goals away... no easy feat.

That goal.com link has been very helpful! Thanks for sending me that! Their predictions are very accurate along with the preview of each game.

I agree with out those starters Ghana is still better then sudan. But the question is, does Ghana only win by 1? B/c the ML is -130 the -1 is +120. Ghana will win though.

[sportsguy04]

Adding:

Morrocco -1 (-155) Risk $16 to win $10.32

Along with Morrocco Im addng:

Ivory Coast ML -130 Risk $20 to win 15.38 Win
Ghana ML -160 Risk $16 to win $10 WON
Nigeria ML +220 Risk $7 to win $15.40 Loss
Nigeria PK +120 Risk $12.5 to win $15 Push


FYI Tunisia's Star forward (leading goal scorer has been ruled out with a knee injury. Nigeria has the better players and more talent then Tunisia anyway.

*Have enough African Qualifiers going on, Im not sure if im going to play the Confederates Cup.

[dwest718]

Added:
Nigeria U2.5 (-170) - Can't believe I played this with this much juice but I really see a defensive battle this evening.
Spain -0.5 (-145) [small bet]
Spain U2.5 (-145) - I agree with Karalyian... don't see many goal scored. Spain needs a draw to lock up first and South Africa just isn't that good. Can see 1-1 but think it'll be 1 or 2-0.

Was close to pulling the trigger on Burkina Faso +0.5 but realized I have a bias against Ivory Coast. I think that Burkina Faso will score at least 1 goal if not 2 so I may just bet more on O2.5.

[sportsguy04]

Added:
Nigeria U2.5 (-170) - Can't believe I played this with this much juice but I really see a defensive battle this evening.
Spain -0.5 (-145) [small bet]
Spain U2.5 (-145) - I agree with Karalyian... don't see many goal scored. Spain needs a draw to lock up first and South Africa just isn't that good. Can see 1-1 but think it'll be 1 or 2-0.

Was close to pulling the trigger on Burkina Faso +0.5 but realized I have a bias against Ivory Coast. I think that Burkina Faso will score at least 1 goal if not 2 so I may just bet more on O2.5.

Yes the Nigeria, Tunisia game will be 1-0 type game. With Tunisia forward hurt, and Nigerias strong D I also believe it will be low. Faso and Ivory Coast should also go over.

[dwest718]

To finish up so I can go watch golf and play poker before I go to work, added two parlays:

Spain -165 + Ghana -160 + Morocco -250 $2 to win $5.31
Ghana -160 + Morocco -250 $5 to win $6.38

Tailing Han06 on some MLS bets this evening as well.

[bostonbruins]

Looks like your biggest bet of the day is on Ivory Coast, do you really like them to win outright more than anything else? Be careful betting so many games and not covering draws. GL..

[sportsguy04]

Adding:

Parlay Risk 7.79 to win 23.80

Morrocco ML
Ivory Coast ML
Ghana ML

[sportsguy04]

Looks like your biggest bet of the day is on Ivory Coast, do you really like them to win outright more than anything else? Be careful betting so many games and not covering draws. GL..

Yes all plays today will result in atleast a 1 goal win. There will be no draws. But yes I understand what ya mean. Best of luck!

[dwest718]

Ghana line movement from -160 to -125 2 hours before kickoff is not good news.

Interesting that the Nigeria game has been scratched off some books... anyone have any news? I haven't seen anything on FIFA or goal.com. Nigeria is starting a 4-3-3... could lead to some goals. I don't think Tunisia will score but a little less confident in the under.

[sportsguy04]

Ghana line movement from -160 to -125 2 hours before kickoff is not good news.

Interesting that the Nigeria game has been scratched off some books... anyone have any news? I haven't seen anything on FIFA or goal.com. Nigeria is starting a 4-3-3... could lead to some goals. I don't think Tunisia will score but a little less confident in the under.

Im thinking people are starting to realize that Ghana will be with out 3 key starters and pounding Sudan?

Good news on Nigeria movement though, ML went from +220 to +190

[dwest718]

http://www.justin.tv/bargaga

Togo-Morocco match if anyone wants to watch. Morocco is absolutely dominating the run of play so far.

[dwest718]

Hand ball in the box by Togo. Yellow card to the offending player. Then the Moroccan guy blasted it over the bar. No chance whatsoever... I think I could've struck one better and I haven't played competitive football for 3 years.

[dwest718]

Don't have the numbers in front of me but feels like possession in this Morocco match is about 70-30 advantage Morocco. Togo look like they don't even belong on the same pitch but Morocco couldn't finish if their lives depended on it.

[sportsguy04]

So far so good for Ghana up 1-0.

[dwest718]

This is some of the worst finishing I've ever seen. Wide open shots from 15 yards out and they pass it to the keeper. Morocco absolutely dominating the match but just can't finish anything. Same thing as earlier.

[dwest718]

It's matches like this that make me want to just stop betting soccer.

Just ****ing miserable play by Morocco today. I am glad this shitty squad played themselves out of the World Cup today.

[sportsguy04]

Adding:

Morrocco -1 (-155) Risk $16 to win $10.32

Loss! Thanks to a miss PK and bad finishing.

2-1 so far.