magisterial write-ups
STRAIGHT: Chile ML -140, Chile vs Uruguay
STRAIGHT: Japan Women's ML -150, Japan vs Netherlands
1. Chile vs Uruguay
Chile is the host of the Copa America and have won every game except for an exciting 3-3 draw they did with Mexico. Uruguay is the defending Copa America champion (from back in 2011) but are missing the banned biter Luis Suarez. Going into this match, most people predicted that Chile would ultimately prevail probably by 1 goal although not completely writing off Uruguay, who not only is defending champion but has won the Copa America the most out of any other South American country. Uruguay has the ultimate reputation of being the party pooper. That said, this year they are severely weakened without Suarez and as evidenced by their lackluster form (1-0 against Jamaica, 1-1 against Paraguay, 0-1 against Argentina) it is clear that a lot of their creativity and firepower has been missing. To make matters worse for them, star striker Cavani (who becomes #1 most important player in Suarez's absence) just received news a few hours ago that his father was arrested in Uruguay for running over a 19 year old with his car. The coach has already said Cavani doesn't have to play, which is probably unlikely, but will surely be a major distraction as he didn't go to practice. On the other hand, Chile have been in good form and thrashed Bolivia 5-0 in their last outing. Chile has had its own controversy with THEIR star player Arturo Vidal getting arrested last week for a DUI and crashing his Ferrari. He has not been banned and is actually being supported by the coach and Chile's football federation but the bigger story is during the last game, the team appeared to do even better in spite of his controversy. Out of the 5 teams that were considered the potential favorites to win the Copa America (Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay), pretty much all have been underperforming including Chile, but I think all would agree that Chile has been the LEAST underperforming out of the 5, and at least play with the most heart compared to the others. The combination of Chile's better recent form, home crowd advantage (which has also meant zero travel for their team), as well as Uruguay being very lackluster lately plus their star striker now having a new major life distraction, I think this gives us more faith in a Chile victory. Predicted result: 1-0 or 2-1.
2. Japan vs Netherlands
The Women's WC is entering the knockout phase now. Japan, who was the 2011 FIFA Women's WC champion, takes on the Netherlands who is ranked outside top 10 and has made it the furthest it ever has for the women's team. It is generally agreed that the Netherlands team is lucky to be this far as their path to the knockout stage has been easy - they beat the ever shitty New Zealand team 1-0, then lost to China 0-1, then tied with Canada 1-1 to end up here. Quite different from a lot of other teams such as the US who had to play against Sweden, Australia, and Nigeria. Japan on the other hand won all 3 of its prior games against Switzerland, Cameroon, and Ecuador, albeit "only" by 1 point, but perhaps being shrewd in doing so by saving their energy for the knockout phase as many teams do as a general strategy for World Cup. Japan is typically known for its defense - so far there have only been 8 shots on target against them in all of their games. We saw the Netherlands lose to China 0-1 and the Chinese Women's team has sometimes been compared to as a slightly inferior version of the Japanese Women's team in that they focus mostly on defense and then scoring on counterattack opportunities when they can. But Japan is a stronger team than China and on this basis alone I would feel comfortable backing them against the Netherlands since we saw them struggle against China. All the analysts are also projecting a Japanese victory here. Predicted score 1-0 or 2-1.
STRAIGHT: Chile ML -140, Chile vs Uruguay
STRAIGHT: Japan Women's ML -150, Japan vs Netherlands
1. Chile vs Uruguay
Chile is the host of the Copa America and have won every game except for an exciting 3-3 draw they did with Mexico. Uruguay is the defending Copa America champion (from back in 2011) but are missing the banned biter Luis Suarez. Going into this match, most people predicted that Chile would ultimately prevail probably by 1 goal although not completely writing off Uruguay, who not only is defending champion but has won the Copa America the most out of any other South American country. Uruguay has the ultimate reputation of being the party pooper. That said, this year they are severely weakened without Suarez and as evidenced by their lackluster form (1-0 against Jamaica, 1-1 against Paraguay, 0-1 against Argentina) it is clear that a lot of their creativity and firepower has been missing. To make matters worse for them, star striker Cavani (who becomes #1 most important player in Suarez's absence) just received news a few hours ago that his father was arrested in Uruguay for running over a 19 year old with his car. The coach has already said Cavani doesn't have to play, which is probably unlikely, but will surely be a major distraction as he didn't go to practice. On the other hand, Chile have been in good form and thrashed Bolivia 5-0 in their last outing. Chile has had its own controversy with THEIR star player Arturo Vidal getting arrested last week for a DUI and crashing his Ferrari. He has not been banned and is actually being supported by the coach and Chile's football federation but the bigger story is during the last game, the team appeared to do even better in spite of his controversy. Out of the 5 teams that were considered the potential favorites to win the Copa America (Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay), pretty much all have been underperforming including Chile, but I think all would agree that Chile has been the LEAST underperforming out of the 5, and at least play with the most heart compared to the others. The combination of Chile's better recent form, home crowd advantage (which has also meant zero travel for their team), as well as Uruguay being very lackluster lately plus their star striker now having a new major life distraction, I think this gives us more faith in a Chile victory. Predicted result: 1-0 or 2-1.
2. Japan vs Netherlands
The Women's WC is entering the knockout phase now. Japan, who was the 2011 FIFA Women's WC champion, takes on the Netherlands who is ranked outside top 10 and has made it the furthest it ever has for the women's team. It is generally agreed that the Netherlands team is lucky to be this far as their path to the knockout stage has been easy - they beat the ever shitty New Zealand team 1-0, then lost to China 0-1, then tied with Canada 1-1 to end up here. Quite different from a lot of other teams such as the US who had to play against Sweden, Australia, and Nigeria. Japan on the other hand won all 3 of its prior games against Switzerland, Cameroon, and Ecuador, albeit "only" by 1 point, but perhaps being shrewd in doing so by saving their energy for the knockout phase as many teams do as a general strategy for World Cup. Japan is typically known for its defense - so far there have only been 8 shots on target against them in all of their games. We saw the Netherlands lose to China 0-1 and the Chinese Women's team has sometimes been compared to as a slightly inferior version of the Japanese Women's team in that they focus mostly on defense and then scoring on counterattack opportunities when they can. But Japan is a stronger team than China and on this basis alone I would feel comfortable backing them against the Netherlands since we saw them struggle against China. All the analysts are also projecting a Japanese victory here. Predicted score 1-0 or 2-1.