A League Finals

[Mase of Base]

Howzit it going boys.

A League finals kick off tonight with Adelaide taking on the Brisbane Roar at their patch, should be a cracker of an atmosphere down there they love their Reds.

Brisbane have been on really nice run of form lately. Two losses to the league winning Victory and one away in the ACL to Suwon but going to asia and losing isn't a mark against them and they gave the Victory everything in those two games the latter of which was with a B team really. That 3-2 win against the Reds in Adelaide, the 6-1 demo job of Central Coast and the huge scalp of Beijing must have them full of confidence tonight.

Adelaide put Melb City to the sword in their last game but have either done enough or been unlucky losers in their recent games, leads to a very intriguing match up tonight.

Interestingly the away team won all three games this season with Brisbane coming out 2-1 H2H.

O/U on the season was Bris 16-11, Ade 17-10.

So no surprise that the over is juiced a bit (1.70 I see), but hey I'm going out on a limb here and hoping finals football mentality kicks in a little and this one stays under.

Under 2.5 @ 2.12 for me tonight. Brisbane's defense has been improved lately and the Reds haven't been taking their chances. Also think Adelaide may play a very possession based game playing it around their backline especially in the first half, no one will want to give up an early goal in this one.

Will post some thoughts on Well/Melb City on sunday. Both teams have stuttered into the finals leaning BTTS No at this stage, might be a dour affair.

[Mase of Base]

Didn't even realise this game was at the Adelaide Oval makes me feel even better about the play, Hindmash is a fortress when full.

Money talks aye.

*Oh had had a very small win on the rugby so have upped the stake to 3U, should of been two but I've had a few ales now and f it!

[Mase of Base]

Well that didn't last long, free kick absolute screamer hits the back of the net. I hate free kick goals on an under!

[Mase of Base]

And then the beautiful pass from the Adelaide defense to Thomas Broich. Yeah that's not a great idea.

I had this all wrong, the defending in this game is woeful for a knockout game. The Brisbane right side is getting chances aplenty, Borello is going to belt one in before this ones done if Adelaide keep playing like this.

[Mase of Base]

Wow terrible beat, free kick, poor back pass then lose it in the dieing minutes.

[rankslash]

Wow terrible beat, free kick, poor back pass then lose it in the dieing minutes.

Still, Young had a great match. Easily saved 2-3 goals in the second.

[Mase of Base]

Still, Young had a great match. Easily saved 2-3 goals in the second.

Agreed he saved my arse late, but still. I still can't get over that Brisbane equaliser that was an absolute howler. And Goodwin of all people to hit a free kick like that it makes the loss a little tough to take.

Especially painfull that I lost to a goal to Adelaide from a Brisbane corner. I can see how that happens in a league game but how you can leave yourself exposed on the break at the end of a cup game is ridiculous.

[Mase of Base]

I can't wait for Sunday after that.

Mostly because I'm a Phoenix fan though! C'mon you Nix.

Melb City are a really bad match up though as they play a really 'solid' brand of football. i.e defend well, maintain the ball and then attack down the flanks with balls into the box. Wellington have average left and right backs defensively for the past few weeks. M City have created a crazy amount of chances the past few weeks their recent form does them no justice at all, incredibly unlucky.

Going to throw 2.0 on BTTS No @ 2.10
0.5 On First half draw @ 2.25
0.5 On Melb City to qualify @ 2.40

[gotov]

Nice write ups mase
Unlucky with the unders bet
That was some sloppy defending. I like city to qualify also. 0-0 or 0-1
Imagine victory v city next week full house hmmm

[smithah2]

whos city? melbourne city plays vicotyr tmrw

[GR33D]

whos city? melbourne city plays vicotyr tmrw

incorrect, pheonix play city tomo. the winner of that match plays victory

[vasilli07]

I think Wellington will just nick it. Melbourne away record isn't that great. They are missing Kew Jaliens. And Wellington will not be too happy if it goes to pk, they just can't convert 1 to save their lives.

[vasilli07]

An awful half of football.

[Mase of Base]

Average game, Wellington were hopeless. Oh well at least I don't have to watch them get hammered by the good Melbourne side next week.

+0.5U and change, could of been better.

[vasilli07]

Collapse like Derby County in the championship last night.

[Mase of Base]

Any plays tonight fellas?

The two Melbourne sides in a derby match, this ones at Etihad which isn't as good for atmosphere imo but it should still be a very vocal crowd. Both teams won their 'home' games against each other with the Victory getting the nod H2H 2-1.

Victory seem the logical play they were the best side this season and it's a very backable price on them to win in regulation. They have a better midfield and by far better attack. Lean them and the under at great odds but think there might be at least two so will be a sweat.

Victory d should be able to deal with Kennedy and although Novillo has a couple of goals since coming into the league I don't think he's that great, wastes some chances. I do like the Heart backline though that can frustrate Melbourne Victory for long periods if they get it right and the Victory can be frustrated.....Berisha. Feels like when these two play it's either a goalfest or 0-0, 1-0, maybe the finals atmosphere and intensity will lead to the latter.

Will the week off have an effect, will Melb City be full of confidence after their win last week.

Probably be back with a play later.

[cryptocap]

Kosta Barbarouses is a fantastic player, i think he can make a big difference tonight if he is in the XI

[dreamlanding]

A-League is so bizarre to me from a gambling perspective.

I've never actually watched it, but wagered on a few overs this season and hit most of them.

It seems like results are either 0-0 / 1-0, or they've got 5 or 6 goals and the overs cash early. Truly odd, but a lot of overs do seem to cash from the limited experience I've had.

[vasilli07]

I went with Victory victory.

[Mase of Base]

A-League is so bizarre to me from a gambling perspective.

I've never actually watched it, but wagered on a few overs this season and hit most of them.

It seems like results are either 0-0 / 1-0, or they've got 5 or 6 goals and the overs cash early. Truly odd, but a lot of overs do seem to cash from the limited experience I've had.

Overs hit more often than unders in the league but nearly every game is juiced. If you want a blind bet that would be the play, but this is playoff football/soccer and that's ALOT of juice to pay imo!

[Mase of Base]

I went with Victory victory.

Ha yeah man feels square as anything but those are very, very attractive odds, surprising actually. The books have held firm all week also so must be some money coming in on Mel City.

To me it's the right play. If had something enticing to fade Mel Victory I would have a sniff but I don't see value.

[cryptocap]

they are just too good at home...1-1 or 2-2 after Full time

[gotov]

My gut says draw
1-1 or 2-2
Extra time with Victory nicking the win

[LFC1892]

I will be very surprised if we don't see goals in this game lads. Both teams have quality players (in comparison with the average in A-League) in attack. 2-1 or 1-2 is in my head.

[vasilli07]

Ha yeah man feels square as anything but those are very, very attractive odds, surprising actually. The books have held firm all week also so must be some money coming in on Mel City.

To me it's the right play. If had something enticing to fade Mel Victory I would have a sniff but I don't see value.

Yes but it's still abit lower than the 3 earlier meetings.

25th Oct - Victory 2.13
20th Dec - Victory 2.12
7th Feb - Victory 2.02

[Mase of Base]

Yes but it's still abit lower than the 3 earlier meetings.

25th Oct - Victory 2.13
20th Dec - Victory 2.12
7th Feb - Victory 2.02

First two aren't surprising that's when everyone thought Melb City would win the league second a City 'home' game, think Villa played in that first one also?

Last one is a surprise maybe a Victory slump, City were in the top of the league I think around then.

[Mase of Base]

Wow, cracker of an atmosphere!

[Mase of Base]

In the end no play to be honest. Would be on the UNDER though.

[vasilli07]

Victory just too good with their attack.

[Lookingtostart]

Kosta Barbarouses is a fantastic player, i think he can make a big difference tonight if he is in the XI

Well said! Pays if you know the team.

[Mase of Base]

Jesus just checked the final score, if that had of happened to me after the Adelaide game I would of frisbeed my computer through the nearest window!

Victory money line turned out to be free money. Square pays the bills sometimes!

Kind of annoyed at myself that was as easy as Mayweather the other day but over thought it.

[vasilli07]

Sydney v Adelaide will be a tougher game to predict. Sydney has the home advantage but Adelaide has a good record against them. Value with Adelaide to win.

[vasilli07]

Adelaide needs a good striker to challenge. They have the quality in midfield but poor finishing always let them down.

With their foreign slots already locked in, they will have a lot to do to find the striker.

[vasilli07]

Thoughts on the finals?

I think it will be a draw with Melbourne winning in extra time.

[GR33D]

coin flip imo. i might lay a bit on sydney to win just at better odds.