In Soviet Russia, I Don`t Pick Odds, Odds Pick Me.

[evgeni99]

Hello there my friend, missed your plays yesterday! I'm assuming there was nothing you really liked other than the Swiss game? Hoping you'll have a few today with the huge Europa card on tap. I like your style, being very selective and going for quality over quantity - I refined my approach along the same philosophy a while back, and I have found I win more profits when I am more selective like that. I'd much rather wager only a few games/matches a day and hit 75% than to only hit 55% on multiples. Thanks again for your astute observations and advice - I know I'm not alone in expressing my appreciation. Looking forward to future picks, and BOL today my friend!

Exactly. I usually follow a check list, which makes the picking of game more selective like you said. Works for me, and produces quality games. Today happens to be a busier day for me for Europa, 4 picks as you see by my next post. Anzi and Betis are my favorite ones.

[evgeni99]

#018
Rubin Kazan - Betis
Pick: Betis +0.5

#019
Salzburg - Ajax
Pick: Salzburg -1

#020
Genk - Anzhi
Pick: Anzhi +0.5

#021
Benfica - PAOK
Pick: PAOK +1.25

[evgeni99]

#018
Rubin Kazan - Betis
Pick: Betis +0.5

#019
Salzburg - Ajax
Pick: Salzburg -1

#020
Genk - Anzhi
Pick: Anzhi +0.5

#021
Benfica - PAOK
Pick: PAOK +1.25

13 Wins - 1 Void - 7 Losses

[edabramov]

When the lines shifted I knew my Genk ML was done. Anzhi hasn't won a single game in their domestic league this year and I think this is their 2nd out of all the games they've played excluding Friendlies..

[evgeni99]

When the lines shifted I knew my Genk ML was done. Anzhi hasn't won a single game in their domestic league this year and I think this is their 2nd out of all the games they've played excluding Friendlies..

Genk played well. Held possession for long periods of time, but couldn't create any chances. Anzhi with some quick and sharp plays decided the game.

[Semper Fidelis]

13 Wins - 1 Void - 7 Losses

Great job my friend! Unlucky with the stupid red card in the PAOK game - I'm sure it would've been a winner if not for that, as Greece is well known for its defensive style soccer (football I suppose is the more acceptable term lol). Looking forward to today's plays and discussion!

[evgeni99]

Great job my friend! Unlucky with the stupid red card in the PAOK game - I'm sure it would've been a winner if not for that, as Greece is well known for its defensive style soccer (football I suppose is the more acceptable term lol). Looking forward to today's plays and discussion!

As soon as I saw the red and the resulting free kick, I already cued a live bet for Benfica goals, but didn't get a chance as they scored a goal from that same free kick. PAOK were lost with that red, never saw a team more demoralized lol

[evgeni99]

#022
Chateauroux - Arles-Avignon
Pick: Arles DNB

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/2818826-angers-troyes-chateauroux-arles-avignon.html

#023
Angers - Troyes
Pick: Troyes DNB

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/2818826-angers-troyes-chateauroux-arles-avignon.html

#024
Dijon - Creteil
Pick: Creteil +1

[evgeni99]

#025
Istres - Le Havre
Pick: Le Havre +0.25

[evgeni99]

#022
Chateauroux - Arles-Avignon
Pick: Arles DNB

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/2818826-angers-troyes-chateauroux-arles-avignon.html

#023
Angers - Troyes
Pick: Troyes DNB

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/2818826-angers-troyes-chateauroux-arles-avignon.html

#024
Dijon - Creteil
Pick: Creteil +1

#025
Istres - Le Havre
Pick: Le Havre +0.25

15 Wins - 2 Voids - 8 Losses

[evgeni99]

#026
Crawley Town - Stevenage
Pick: Stevenage +0.25

[knubbek]

#026
Crawley Town - Stevenage
Pick: Stevenage +0.25

I like your pick, Stevenage would have won 5 of the latest 7 matches at Crawley's home with that handicap (only 2 loses in 2007). At Stevenage's home that number would have been increased to 6 wins of 9 matches. The away team needs to get points here if they want to fight against relegation.

On the other hand the home team hasn't lost a single match since 26 December, but they just score 1 goal in average at home this season and Stevenage is in the top4 conceding goals away but 0.94 scoring so..

I see a draw in this game.

[evgeni99]

#026
Crawley Town - Stevenage
Pick: Stevenage +0.25

16 Wins - 2 Void - 8 Losses

[Semper Fidelis]

Hey there buddy, thanks for that last win with Stevenage! Haven't seen you in a couple days - probably because of the lack of games on which to pick a quality play I presume? I don't blame you one bit; I don't like wagering on friendly matches, as you never really know their motivation or how serious they take the games. You're one of the sharpest guys in the soccer forum, and pretty much one of the only guys I follow or look to for advice! Looking forward to future plays and discussion, and thanks again for all you contribute. Cheers my friend!

[evgeni99]

Hey there buddy, thanks for that last win with Stevenage! Haven't seen you in a couple days - probably because of the lack of games on which to pick a quality play I presume? I don't blame you one bit; I don't like wagering on friendly matches, as you never really know their motivation or how serious they take the games. You're one of the sharpest guys in the soccer forum, and pretty much one of the only guys I follow or look to for advice! Looking forward to future plays and discussion, and thanks again for all you contribute. Cheers my friend!

I actually wanted to post few Int. friendlies, but as you said the quality in friendly matches is just not there. Still ended up going 3/4, will post next time. Tomorrow looks like a busy day, expect few picks here and there starting with Arsenal - Everton.

[evgeni99]

#027
Arsenal - Everton
Pick: Everton +0.5

[Semper Fidelis]

Very interesting pick here, especially considering how much Everton have struggled recently with their away form. And then there's the thought that this cup may represent the only chance Arsenal have at winning anything this year, though they still have an outside shot at winning the Premier League. Are you banking on the fact that these two typically have a history of playing close matches? Or maybe perhaps because everyone and their mother will be on Arsenal at home? Lol One thing's for sure - Everton have certainly had an easier path to this stage than Arsenal! I guess that's really the only thing that worries me about backing Everton - Arsenal have beaten some stiff competition in Tottenham and Liverpool to get here, so they can be perceived as being more battle-tested. Then again, all Everton need to do is play to a draw within 90 min; this bet still wins even if Arsenal end up winning in ET or PKs...

[Semper Fidelis]

Also, I'm sure there are other matches that interest you, no? I know you're probably still researching and capping the games, looking for more quality picks. As far as the other England games, I was strongly considering Fulham +0.5 and/or Over 2.5 for that match. There seems to be some value in taking Fulham to win that match, especially with them battling regulation. Then again Cardiff is right there with them at the bottom of the table. Or is it too risky to place anything on the bottom dwellers?

[Semper Fidelis]

Were there any other picks you liked for today buddy? Arsenal apparently came to play today! Glad I didn't end up taking anything in the Fulham match - that one certainly turned out different than what I had expected! I did win a little on a couple overs in the German matches, but they were pretty much cancelled out by the many parlays I lost from Barcelona not showing up today!
The only other play I ended up placing was a small wager on Tottenham +0.5, as I thought it represented some decent value. Looking good at the half now; hopefully it continues! By the way, do you post plays on any other forum or twitter at all?

[edabramov]

Best Value today was Atletico Madrid @-104

A top team that is capable of beating Celta Vigo.. combined with the fact that they MUST win to stay in the title race..

[evgeni99]

#027
Arsenal - Everton
Pick: Everton +0.5

16 Wins - 2 Void - 9 Losses

Wow, that Everton loss threw me off my game for the whole weekend. Was really confident in an Arsenal flop due to Everton's recent good form versus them, as you said yourself. Plus I felt that in this game Everton will finally prove themselves against a top team, which they failed all season to do. Expected to see what happened to City to Arsenal.

Lost a lot on this one and decided to take the weekend off, didn't want to post more losses. I don't post picks anywhere else, yet. Considering to open a site/blog in the future though...

Oh and edabramov, Atl had weak lineup for this game due to injuries to some top players, hence the good value. Great pick, was looking into it as well.

For today I have a great pick. Juve Stabia from the Italian 2nd league should hold Palermo off. Check my thread.

[evgeni99]

#028
Juve Stabia - Palermo
Pick: Juve +0.5

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/2828562-juve-stabia-palermo.html#post21349288

[Semper Fidelis]

I was wondering why you didn't post any other weekend tips! I hate when that happens, when you feel very strongly about a play and lay a decent amount down, only to have it lose. The only difference between you and I is that you have the discipline to lay off any other plays if you don't feel them - too often we allow ourselves to place angry wagers when our big plays lose, and those emotional wagers tend to not be as profitable since they are made with emotions and not our head! I suppose you could call my Spurs wager one one of those wagers, as they are one of my favorite teams. For the most part I've learned to wait and see what others feel about plays I'm considering, no matter how strongly I feel about them, because they may have more information I wasn't previously aware of.

What leagues do you specialize in my friend? You seem to follow many leagues, yet still have the discipline to only place a few wagers at a time, which is good (and very hard if you know the leagues and teams very well). Let's hope Juve will be better to us than Everton were!

[edabramov]

I was confident in Everton as well, but I should have considered how hungry Arsenal would be for their first trophy in 9 years.. Played handicap with West Bromwich expecting another upset but this time Manchester utd came through.

Good luck with Italy, I don't fuk with the lower divisions anymore.

[evgeni99]

Italy 2nd usually does well for me. Expecting something good from this one.

[evgeni99]

#029
St. Polten - Horn
Pick: Horn +0.5

[edabramov]

Majority of the money being placed on the draw in the Palermo game.. is that typical?

[Vaughany]

last two home games of stabia have been 1-1 and last two of palermo away have been draws

[Semper Fidelis]

Unlucky yesterday, but that's ok, that happens from time to time. Yesterday didn't offer a very good slate of games to pick from. Today looks much better, and I know we'll get it all back and then some!

Not quite sure what to make of the Champions League matches - wouldn't be surprised at all of an upset (Arsenal did manage to win at Bayern last year after all). I know you follow many different leagues, and though I'm rarely afforded the opportunity to watch any matches (most are played while I'm at work), I try to stay up to speed with some of the leagues and teams. Not sure yet which leagues/teams you feel more confident in, but you seem to know the lower level English leagues pretty well. The only reason I mention that is because I was interested in your take on the Swindon/Wolves match. These two teams are completely opposite in regards to their current forms, and I can't see how Wolves won't earn their 9th win in a row today. Really want to pound them, but the only thing that halts me is the price - shouldn't Wolves be much lower than 1.80 to win this match? Either the books are giving us an amazing gift or there's something I'm totally missing.

Anyway very much looking forward to your thoughts on this and any plays you have circled for today! As always BOL to our wagers today!

[evgeni99]

Wolves was a good pick. The odds confused me too, so stayed away.

I am on a bit of a bad run, but this weekend should be better.

[evgeni99]

#028
Juve Stabia - Palermo
Pick: Juve +0.5

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-betting/2828562-juve-stabia-palermo.html#post21349288

#029
St. Polten - Horn
Pick: Horn +0.5

16 Wins - 2 Void - 11 Losses

[evgeni99]

#030
Hartlepool - Bristol Rovers
Pick: Bristol Rovers +0.25

#031
Cheltenham - Torquay
Pick: Torquay +0.50

#032
Hull City - Manchester City
Pick: Hull +1

#033
Watford - Barnsley
Pick: Barnsley +1