414# Porto x Frankfurt OVER 2.5 @1.91 [1u risk]
415# Porto -1 @1.93 [2u risk]
415# Porto -1 @1.93 [2u risk]
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416# PAOK x Benfica OVER 2, 2.5 @1.85 [1u risk]Comment -
417# Fiorentina @1.70 [1u risk]Comment -
Easy im thinking about parlaying some of the following games for a bigger stake, but im no EL expert by any means. Debating between Ajax, Shaktor, Napoli (all dnb probably) and Porto -1. Any suggestions?Comment -
I think Napoli needs 2 goals to win against Swansea, Ajax v Salzburg i'd say BTTS is the most safe option, looking at both teams Ajax very rarely doesn't get atleast one goal at home, and Salzburg on the regular let's one in away because of how attacking they are.Comment -
Your probably right, some interesting games today. Im probably laying off Napoli, but i just cant see Ajax losing at home, maybe draw. Not sure about Porto, I know my Bundesliga and Frankfurt have an important match this weekend vs Bremen on which they will probably focus more. Lyon and Tottenham dnb look juicy too, same with LudogoretsComment -
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Agree Porto -1 is also my strongest play today other than Juventus -1.5 and Napoli DNB
Porto will dominate i believe and know.Comment -
The only problem Porto has this season is the freaking coach! Scary sometimes how fking lost the players are on the pitch....
But I believe today Porto will make a good game. They have the better team.
Also my friends that are on the stadium say 5 to 6K Frankfurt supporters.....that's scary!Comment -
I'm so ashamed tonight.Comment -
that was unfreaking real Burk. Wtf??? Are you guys that bad?
AJAX & PORTO ==
I didn't see the AJax game, but for the RedBull odd drop from 5.00 to 3.10 before Kick-off, something was about to happen....and that was a 0-3 in the ass by the 35 minute.
Regarding Porto...ohh boy, these fking morons can't do sh*t this year. Don't get me wrong I'm happy as hell (Benfica
)...but god damn, when it's my money on the line...FKKK THEM. Paulo Fonseca coach hasn't been sacked because Porto hates to admit that they made an awful decision! Those retards don't know how to secure an advantage of two goals with 20' left....wow!
Quaresma did score a beautiful goal, did you see it?Comment -
We totally were that bad last night, plus Salzburg seems to have a great team not afraid to keep pressure from the get go. Luckily I kinda saw it coming and took Salzburg to advance @ 2.10 (which also dropped, to 1.85 pre match).
I saw the goal, great one! But boy, Porto should have won that one easily.Comment -
418# Schalke x Mainz OVER 2.5 @1.82 [to win 2u]Comment -
0-1
-2.44u
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419# Chelsea @1.62 [1u risk]
420# Chelsea x Everton OVER 2, 2.5 @1.79 [to win 1u]
421# Hamburguer x Dortmund OVER 3 @1.62 [to win 1u]
422# Wolfsburg x Leverkusen OVER 2.5 @1.82 [to win 2u]
423# Man. City -2 @1.94 [1u risk]Comment -
424# Arsenal -1.5 @2.03 [1u]Comment -
425# Liverpool x Swansea OVER 3 @1.90 [to win 1u]
426# Liverpool HT @1.7 [1u risk]
427# PSG -1 @1.962 [1u risk]
428# Setubal @3.17 [1u]Comment -
mate why is Setubal priced so high ? I got surprised when i saw the odd , but have no info for portuguese league , so i am asking you since you are from PORComment -
429# Benfica x Guimaraes OVER 2.5 @1.84 [3u risk]Comment -
Good job over the weekend mate! How confident are you in this going over? If I remember correctly you usually hit your 3u and up at a higher %, correct?Comment -
To be honest I'm not in love for the play at the moment bcs of the way Benfica is playing (solid defense, almost ever they suffer a goal, and a poor attack when comparing with other seasons), but the statistical system (which I've been using this season with success, and back tested for 10 years = all profitable) says it's a 4 unit play......
...but since I don't like it that much and its impossible to insert in the system my players/team perception I've downgraded the play to 3 unitsComment -
Cardozo is back, let's just hope he will be onfire!Comment -
That's why I asked you man, looking at Benfica's last several matches I noticed they had many low-scoring defensive games! Because of your caution I only went small, and thankfully withheld from using that as the last leg of a very nice parlay! Do you have a breakdown as to the stats of your various unit plays based on their perceived strength based on your statistical model? Of course all that matters in the end is being in the black, but it'd be interesting to see what the % rate is for all of them. In any event good luck on any plays you have today my friend!
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Guimareas had a couple chances and Benfica missed an open goal near end. on another day it could of been 2-1 Benfica, but just sloppy finishingComment -
Glad I helped even if I picked up a loser! I should know better and follow my instinct, but I wanna be true to the statistics and get the same year on year ROI that the model produces.That's why I asked you man, looking at Benfica's last several matches I noticed they had many low-scoring defensive games! Because of your caution I only went small, and thankfully withheld from using that as the last leg of a very nice parlay! Do you have a breakdown as to the stats of your various unit plays based on their perceived strength based on your statistical model? Of course all that matters in the end is being in the black, but it'd be interesting to see what the % rate is for all of them. In any event good luck on any plays you have today my friend!
I have the 4-3 units bets averaging 70%-72%
And the rest hitting 65% (on low odds, between 1.55-1.80)
And I'm hitting below 50% (as you can see by the overall record) on odds > 1.80Comment -
Live bet (0-2)
430# zenit +0.5 @2.00Comment -
posted early in the morning this next play by twitter:
431# Schalke vs Real Madrid: More Booking Points SCHALKE @2.25 [1u]Comment
