Soccer Picks and analysis

[ctlaltdefeat]

The one time I bet a significant amount of money (a few hundred) on your picks, I lose
Cheers m8, meticulous and well-researched picks!

[edabramov]

The one time I bet a significant amount of money (a few hundred) on your picks, I lose
Cheers m8, meticulous and well-researched picks!

If you have no consistency in units you will not last very long.

[ctlaltdefeat]

If you have no consistency in units you will not last very long.

Are you joking? Consistency in units has absolutely no effect on expected profit, apart from increasing variance. If my bankroll is enough to sustain the variance, there is no difference.

[edabramov]

Are you joking? Consistency in units has absolutely no effect on expected profit, apart from increasing variance. If my bankroll is enough to sustain the variance, there is no difference.

No I'm not joking. Because if you've been tailing him placing 1u on each game, and this game you decide to throw down 10u, you'd be in a deficit due to your failure to keep betting 1u each game instead of throwing down "few hundred", what ever a " unit" may be according to you. Money management is one of the most important things in sport betting, if you don't get that then you're delusional.

[criticalman]

flat stake 1u is ok for games like this. Popular games has correct odds. Anyway there was red card for Zenit

[ctlaltdefeat]

No I'm not joking. Because if you've been tailing him placing 1u on each game, and this game you decide to throw down 10u, you'd be in a deficit due to your failure to keep betting 1u each game instead of throwing down "few hundred", what ever a " unit" may be according to you. Money management is one of the most important things in sport betting, if you don't get that then you're delusional.

What you're writing makes absolutely zero sense, which is consistent with the rest of the posts you make here I guess.

[edabramov]

What you're writing makes absolutely zero sense, which is consistent with the rest of the posts you make here I guess.

You're completely retarded, I'm sorry if you can't understand what I'm writing then you shouldn't be on here in a first place. Strong first 3 posts by the way kiddo.

[ginger565]

Friends please keep it calm in this thread, without insults We're all here to make money..if you have any suggestions they are most wellcome from my behalf but if someone doesn't want to accept some advices so be it..everyone risks their own money after all

I agree that money management is very important..and a serious bettor should know his limits and act accordingly..but if you for some reason don't wanna go that way it only shows how serious about betting you are. I wont be a smartass here, it's just my opinion and if there is need I can post my units for every pick Cheers

[ginger565]

Anyways lets get back to picks and making money

Unlucky there with Zenit getting a red card :/


CHERNOMORETS ODESSA - PSV
I expect both teams here to be primarily focused on tight defense and this is why. For Odessa it’s their style of play, especially when they host big names like PSV today. Besides that they’ve got all three points in Zagreb and a draw here against one of the group favorites would suit them more than well.
Odessa’s defense line is also impressive, in last five games on home turf they’ve allowed only one goal and this season no one was able to outclass them.
On the other hand PSV will be focused not to lose today and coach Cocu prepared a tight, defensive lineup 4-2-3-1 with only one striker up front. The main reason for are absences of captain and first goalscorer Wijnaldum and important striker Park who are both missing this match as well as some defensive players so they decided to bring more stability to defense.
I don’t expect too much goals today and the goal margin should stay under 2,5 goals.


Bet: Under 2,5 goals
Odds: 1.85
Stake: 5/10


BOL

[ginger565]

GIMNASIA LA PLATA – VELEZ (Argentina Apertura)


Velez were not convincing in the beginning if the season, but they have been improving from game to game. In the announcement of the Argentinian championship I have written that according to the names, this is the strongest team in the country, and I stay at this opinion. This is a team with a wide range of good players, which is currently pushing at two fronts, but which is located lower on the table because of weaker results at the beginning of the season. When Velez is at its best and plays according to its potential, then this is the team that can beat anybody. And today there is such a situation. Velez Sarsfield come to La Plata in full form and Gareca will bring to the field his strongest line-up. Newell have started to fly away at the top, and if Velez want to stay in competition for the title, today they should not lose any points.
Gimnasia showed last week that despite good results from this season, it is still not at the same level as the strongest teams, and were smoothly defeated 3-0 against San Lorenzo. Velez is actually the team of the same quality like San Lorenzo, perhaps even a bit stronger and it is clear that the guests have the advantage. After the defeat against San Lorenzo, the host coach Troglio announced broad changes in the line-up, which can't be good for the team which doesn't have a strong bench.
The betting houses gave the host a role of the favorite, perhaps because they have more points, but this makes no logic to me. This is why I will take the guest victory without a draw (Asian handicap +0). In case of the draw, the stake is returned, and the bet is profitable if Velez win.


Bet: Handicap +0 (or DNB)
Tip: 2
Odds: 2.05


BOL

[ginger565]

Unlucky there with another red card on our favourite Hope we can make things right with this MLS pick

MLS Houston Dynamo - Kansas City
Kansas won against Columbus with referee help and luck, but they did not look as good as in their previous few matches. Their front line is obviously shaken after they sold Kamara and coach Vermes is rotating a lot and trying different trios, but he still has not found a solution. Their defense and midfield are without best players Zusi and Besler (players that take all set pieces) so I do not see a phase of this match in which they could be better than their hosts who started playing better, are rested and have more players at their disposal.
Home team win is a good option, as is that Kansas will not score a goal. But since the visiting team will not take any risk until they find themselves chasing the score, I recommend higher stake on a match without a draw. I think that the visiting team win, if there is no red cards and if some crazy situations do not develop during the match, is highly unlikely.


Bet: Draw no bet
Tip: 1
Odds: 1.70

[ginger565]

Last one was a push..no money lost but now it's time to earn some


U21 DENMARK – U21 SLOVENIA


Denmark and Slovenia showed that they want to play attractive football in their previous matches and I expect a similar approach by both teams today. Also, both teams played against a very solid Estonia under the margin, while the other two games they played went over the margin of goals scored. The home team can't count on their captain Vestergaard, which is a serious blow for their backline and I believe that the Slovenians can cause a lot of problems today. On the other hand the Danes will be boosted by the return of the excellent striker Falk, who already played for the senior national team and will make their attack even stronger.
I believe that the right bet would be over on goals scored because a tie is not an option for both teams, who have been scoring a lot of goals lately and playing good attacking football.


Bet: Over 2,5 Goals
Odds: 1.80
Good luck if you are following

[ginger565]

Yesterday was nice for us..U21's scored four goals total taking us over the margin of 2,5 goals Hope Murcia can make us some money too with help of betprepare info


MURCIA – GIRONA


In an interesting match played in Jaen, not even two penalty kicks were enough for Murcia to break the hosts and extend their positive run, which ended after six games without a defeat. Their last loss before that one came at the outset of the season to current leaders Recreativo. Judging by that, this new defeat shouldn't disrupt the cogs in Murcia's machine, and we'll probably see them back to their normal selves in today's match. They will certainly not lack for motivation. Girona took seven points in its last three visits to the Nueva Condomina, but Murcia wasn't as good as it currently is, and now they are looking for payback. The fact that they are at full-strength for this match will help them achieve that and win another three points. Namely, coach Velasquez now faces a challenge of picking the first eleven from a number of quality players as the last absentee, midfielder Tete, returned into contention getting in from the bench in the last game.
In the last week's derby Girona managed to win only one point. A small consolation for them, given that they won this point after two consecutive losses. Something is off on the pitch lately and coach Rodriguez is very much aware of that. Some changes are unavoidable as they are now far from the top of the table where they are planning to be in the end. Midfielder Timor, one of their best players, is still out, as well as defender Lopez.


Bet: 1 (Home win)
Odds: 2.30 (Pinnacle)
GL mates

[Vaughany]

Unlucky there with another red card on our favourite Hope we can make things right with this MLS pick

MLS Houston Dynamo - Kansas City
Kansas won against Columbus with referee help and luck, but they did not look as good as in their previous few matches. Their front line is obviously shaken after they sold Kamara and coach Vermes is rotating a lot and trying different trios, but he still has not found a solution. Their defense and midfield are without best players Zusi and Besler (players that take all set pieces) so I do not see a phase of this match in which they could be better than their hosts who started playing better, are rested and have more players at their disposal.
Home team win is a good option, as is that Kansas will not score a goal. But since the visiting team will not take any risk until they find themselves chasing the score, I recommend higher stake on a match without a draw. I think that the visiting team win, if there is no red cards and if some crazy situations do not develop during the match, is highly unlikely.


Bet: Draw no bet
Tip: 1
Odds: 1.70

I also had Houston PK, and it was one of the worse matches I've ever seen! the standard was abysmal!

[ghislaine]

Thanks for the analysis and picks ! Keep it up, great job

[ginger565]

Thanks for the analysis and picks ! Keep it up, great job

Thanks mate..had a bit of help from betprepare lately Today's offer in soccer isn't much so we'll skip the day and wait for the qualifiers tomorrow Stay tuned for more info

[ginger565]

SWEDEN - GERMANY
PREVIEW
Sweden, with their 20 point haul, can play hosts for this final qualifying game without any pressure whatsoever. Last week's win over Austria, or turnaround to be more correct, cemented their second place finish in the group. Today's opponents Germany are five points in front, and as Sweden can't overtake them, they have nothing to play for but prestige.


Besides that, the hosts will be missing one important player, or it might be better to say crucial foward. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, their biggest star, is suspended for the match. First choice keeper Isaksson and defender Lustig have missed the last training session due to injury, and they probably won't play today.
We have some doubts regarding the starting 11, and I still haven't made a final decision. We will miss Zlatan, he's a world class player. We can play the same as we have we played so far, but without him it will be a lot harder - coach Erik Hamren said, before commenting on the match against the heavily favoured German side:


- We went into the matches against Germany in Berlin and Austria on Friday a bit too cautiously. However, I would be naive if I thought that we will see more of the ball than Germany today.


Germany secured top spot in the group with a convincing win against Ireland. They have won every match but one, the amazing draw against Sweden, when they were 4-0 up, only for the game to finish 4-4. Low had this to say about today's game:


- We don't want to experiment too much in our final qualifying match. The team are on a good run and we want to keep it going. We don't want to get even for the Berlin game, that's water under the bridge for us. The players have learned from that experience, and that's the most important thing.


They will still be missing almost all of their Dortmund contigent, and forwards Klose and Gomez as well, but Schweinsteiger is ready to make his 100th national team appearance.


Low is about to sign a new contract, which would run until 2016, so it seems that the German FA are going to place their trust in him for another qualifying cycle.


BETTING PREVIEW


Basing on this Betprepare preview everything is clear..Sweden will be without Ibrahimovic and Lustig and that will be a huge handicap for them since it’s their best striker and standard, most experienced defender who are missing this match. On the other hand Germany wants revenge for that 4-4 result back in Germany and Low already mentioned that he has no intention of experimenting so I expect away team to be at their best.


Bet: 2
Odds: 1.75

[ginger565]

What a match anyone followed?

[andy888888]

yeah i played Germany when it was 2-2, 2.05 odds

[ginger565]

Been away on a little trip but got back right in time for Champions League Here's one Betprepare pick..seems like a very good option to me. What's your opinion? Cheers!


PORTO - ZENIT
Porto are almost always the favorites at their own stadium, but rating them at such ridiculous odds is going too far in my opinion. Zenit are playing some amazing football, they are stronger than ever, literally steamrolling over their competition in Russia, and only bad luck and referees' mistakes prevented them from getting more points in the Champions League. Even though Spalletti says this isn't necessarily a critical game, we need to be realistic and say that this is a do or die match for them. Not many would put pressure on an in-form team ahead of an important match, and Spalletti's statements are logical attempts to reduce it, as he believes his team can achieve their goal if they keep playing at their best. The only mitigating circumstance for them could be if Atletico secure their progress already after four games (which is very likely, as they have two games against Austria) and go into the fifth at Petrovsky with some reservations. But Zenit can in no way rely on that, especially as this would give Porto the same advantage in their sixth game away at Calderon. Therefore, Zenit must not lose today. Reasons to believe in Zenit's positive outcome are aplenty, and the potential key figure for many in this match is Hulk, who is in top form and he could easily wreak havoc in Porto's defense, which he knows very well. Even though I'm deeply convinced that Zenit will leave Portugal undefeated, due to excellent odds and Witsel's absence I will go for a more conservative option in the form of a +1 handicap, which would see our stake return if Porto win by one goal. I expected these odds on x2.


Bet: Handicap -1
Tip: 2
Odds: 1.88


BOL

[Vaughany]

so you mean Handicap +1

[edabramov]

so you mean Handicap +1

Lmao -1 to Zenit and imagine it wins.

[EasyPicks]

Porto never won against Zenit in the Champions! And they weren't as good as now, and Porto was much better then!

[pellumb341]

Porto rarely wins by multiple goals ,so that's nice pick

[ginger565]

GENK –RAPID

Belgian Genk are in top form, both in their national championship and in Euroleague.Today they have a great chance to settle the issue of getting through the group after only three rounds, which will then enable them to turn their attention to the championship and further advance in ranking there. Rapid Vienna, a team with lots of ups and downs this season, are in their way. They are in constant trouble this season, conceding naive goals and getting injuries of their main players. Those details might be a big strength for Genk, who are unforgiving in their own stadium lately, and Rapid will hardly be an exception.
The home team will surely be in the offensive mood, trying to quickly score and break through the solid bunker of the Vienna team. Should they manage to succeed, they will have a much easier job in the rest of the game. Genk are technically a better team than Rapid, all their midfielders and forwards are individually strong on the offense, while with Burgstaller and the long injured Alar missing for Rapid the only creative force remaining is 34-year-old captain Hofmann. That would not suffice to parry Genk even in a home game, let alone away. This match smells like Genk dominating, with Rapid trying to defend and score from fast counterattacks. However, with all the weaknesses the Vienna team defense have displayed this year, the home team have a much better chance of achieving their goals and reaching a third consecutive victory that will verify their superiority in this group.

Bet: 1
Odds: 1.74 (Marathon)