MLS Conference Semifinal - Leg 2 Tonight

[RogueScholar]

I was hoping to solicit the wisdom of someone more knowledgeable about soccer than me. I've been trying to find the value in the different wagering options, and these two look the best to me.

New England +0.5 (5Dimes @ +101)

Over 2.5 (5Dimes @ +118)

My rationale is that these teams are relatively evenly matched and so a draw is a real possibility. Also, Chicago dominated the season series 3-0-0, and the first leg game ended in a scoreless draw. This leads me to believe that the Revolution are adjusting their game-plan to more effectively control the Fire, while the Fire have every reason to stick to the strategies which got them to the playoffs. Beating a team 4 times in a season surely can't be a likely feat.

As this is the second leg of an aggregate goal series, with no scores being carried over from the first leg, both teams have to place themselves in scoring situations when the moment arises. The time for defense has passed, with the opportunity to have two 15-minute extra periods followed by penalty kicks. Surely they'll find a way to put that tiny ball in that humongous net three or four times.

Please let me know where I've gone wrong, or if by some stroke of luck, you agree with my musings. If you agree, taking into account I play $10 units, please let me know how heavy you'd bet this game.

[robmpink]

I was hoping to solicit the wisdom of someone more knowledgeable about soccer than me. I've been trying to find the value in the different wagering options, and these two look the best to me.

New England +0.5 (5Dimes @ +101)

Over 2.5 (5Dimes @ +118)

My rationale is that these teams are relatively evenly matched and so a draw is a real possibility. Also, Chicago dominated the season series 3-0-0, and the first leg game ended in a scoreless draw. This leads me to believe that the Revolution are adjusting their game-plan to more effectively control the Fire, while the Fire have every reason to stick to the strategies which got them to the playoffs. Beating a team 4 times in a season surely can't be a likely feat.

As this is the second leg of an aggregate goal series, with no scores being carried over from the first leg, both teams have to place themselves in scoring situations when the moment arises. The time for defense has passed, with the opportunity to have two 15-minute extra periods followed by penalty kicks. Surely they'll find a way to put that tiny ball in that humongous net three or four times.

Please let me know where I've gone wrong, or if by some stroke of luck, you agree with my musings. If you agree, taking into account I play $10 units, please let me know how heavy you'd bet this game.

If they go into aet (added extra time) nothing counts as far as totals. Most likely you knew that but if not keep that in mind when betting totals in soccer.

[Wilforth]

Being the 2nd leg of a semifinal in which both sides still have a chance of progressing to the finals, expect a very cautious game between these two. The Over doesn't look plausible here.
The game appears to me to be a pass, but if I were to wager anything, I'd go with NE +0.5. After losing thrice to Chicago during the regular season, NE should be able to come up with strategies to "close down" their offense in the playoffs. That was evident in the goalless draw in their last meeting. Over all, the value lies in NE +0.5.

I'm not more knowledgeable than you in soccer but you generally don't expect many goals in knock-out games of this kind.