My Apology to the board

[EBSB52]

Am I the only one that thinks it is really lame that the forum's two major superstars both say that capping is impossible and is no better than flipping a coin?

No, it's honest. Anyone who thinks this is more than calculated guessing is a fool. Where the experience pays is understanding odds and jumping on a good deal, knowing how and when to middle, etc.....

I've had this conversation with guys that play hold em, I ask them why they are wasting their time with me and not playing hold em every minute until they are rich enough. I love sports betting, been a while since I've bet dimes, but the tension is sick-fun..... of course I skydive too

[Nicky Santoro]

No, it's honest. Anyone who thinks this is more than calculated guessing is a fool. Where the experience pays is understanding odds and jumping on a good deal, knowing how and when to middle, etc.....

I've had this conversation with guys that play hold em, I ask them why they are wasting their time with me and not playing hold em every minute until they are rich enough. I love sports betting, been a while since I've bet dimes, but the tension is sick-fun..... of course I skydive too

ebser,

i dont know who the hell you are, but you seem to be a smart guy.. ebser, you got 100+ posts in just over 24 hrs.. you might be even sicker than JJgold in his prime. ebser, you are right about gambling..gambling is a disease and no one here besides a very very very very small % will show any profit.. but it's like drugs.. it's a rush for them.. it's so sad, because these guys will all lose their money.. unless you are hooked up to computers and have great info from large sources, or have runners working for you and you have very weak bookmakers who are clueless or you are a pro and beating #'s left and right, then you have NO chance... you hear me boys.. NO CHANCE of making money in this business over the long haul..

[jjgold]

Your chance of winning a game is no different if you handicap itor flip a coin, it is still 50-50.

I am like you guys here, I try and bet one side and win for the challenge and the possible chance of getting quick cash in my pocket but I am a realist and know coin flipping is the same thing but we do not want to do that because it is boring and no challenge.

[Nicky Santoro]

i challenge everyone here, including you, jj cole to do this..

every night for the 8 or so games you like, bet them.. then for each of the 8 games, flip a coin.. heads is fav, tails is dog.. after 500 bets, i will bet you all that the coin will have a better or same record as all of you posters' picks..

try it and see..and you will see i am right..in sports gambling, the more you know.. the less successful you are... don't ever forget those words..

THE MORE YOU KNOW...... THE LESS SUCCESSFUL YOU ARE.

[EBSB52]

ebser,

i dont know who the hell you are, but you seem to be a smart guy.. ebser, you got 100+ posts in just over 24 hrs.. you might be even sicker than JJgold in his prime. ebser, you are right about gambling..gambling is a disease and no one here besides a very very very very small % will show any profit.. but it's like drugs.. it's a rush for them.. it's so sad, because these guys will all lose their money.. unless you are hooked up to computers and have great info from large sources, or have runners working for you and you have very weak bookmakers who are clueless or you are a pro and beating #'s left and right, then you have NO chance... you hear me boys.. NO CHANCE of making money in this business over the long haul..

Right, you affirmed what I wrote; we agree. I have been compulsive off and on all my life, but I can easily walk away. Now I collect old vegas chips and I have about 20k worth of them to show for it, as I get old that seems to be more important than the 20-year old box of losing gaming tickets.

As for hooked up to computers, how do you handicap the fumbles, blocked punts, etc, etc, etc???? Vegas loves guyswith systems.

As for a rush, yea, just drop a dime on a pathetic game like ATL at the Raiders and all of the sudden it's interesting. That is my pick of the week BTW, I wrote that in this post or another in this forum, posted too many time to recall which thread , too bad I forgot to bet the dime on it.

[EBSB52]

Your chance of winning a game is no different if you handicap itor flip a coin, it is still 50-50.

I am like you guys here, I try and bet one side and win for the challenge and the possible chance of getting quick cash in my pocket but I am a realist and know coin flipping is the same thing but we do not want to do that because it is boring and no challenge.

A football game is a 3-hour coin toss, we don't lose money as fast when the game (coin) is suspended in the air for 3 hours.

[Nicky Santoro]

Las vegas david, you are doing very well as i see in NCAA and NFL.. your record says you are doing good.. lets watch and see what your record will be after both seasons are over.. i will lay any odds that you will come back to earth and end up near 50%.. watch and see buddy..

las vegas davey boy, don't say i didn't warn you.. i am not kicking you while you are down, but after a 5-8 day today, you just went from doing very well, to now hitting 53%, and at break even.... and this after a 17-4 weekend or whatever it was a few weeks ago..

las vegas davey boy, no matter how good a week you had this year, you will always end up close to 50%.. david, do you really believe you are ahead of these NFL linesmakers? do you really believe you or anyone on this board actually have more knowledge than these pros? of course not david.. we will all hit close to 50% no matter how smart any of us think we are.

[reno cool]

Nicky: you should know better.

1. There's a good chance that you can hit 53% over 500 games by luck alone. Its only 30 games over .500.

2. I'm surprised that over your career you haven't met any winning players. They exist and there's at least a handful on this forum.

[Nicky Santoro]

reno, i didn't say it CANNOT be done.. sure it can be done over 500 games..i wouldn't say there's a good chance..it is extremely unlikely and if anyone wanted to make a straight wager with me that they can do it, i would bet them in an instant, and I would be a massive favorite as you also know.. sure they might get lucky and hit 53% over 500 games, but even then, they'd break even.. but can they hit 53% over a lifetime?? no way reno.. and that is still breaking even if they did, which they won't.. who on this board can hit 55% to make a decent living? unless they are getting great edges on every game, no one will ever do it..

this is a very tough game to beat.. reno, people think they can make money gambling easily and consistently hit 55%. they have no idea what they are in for..

[RealSlimShady]

Just take a look at this list of handicappers. Almost everyone who has over 1000 picks is in the negative:

http://www.trackpicks.com/current_handicappers.asp

[Nicky Santoro]

slimmer,

good job, buddy.. i saw 2 guys off that whole list of handicapping pros with at least 1,000 picks that are up money, and barely up..

91% of them were between 49% and 51%...

goes to show you boys that no matter how good you are, you will always end up close to 50%.. and if you are really lucky, you will end up at 53%, or break even..and if you are unlucky, you can end up at 47% and get completely murdered.

YOU CAN'T WIN BY HANDICAPPING GAMES, BOYS..

[reno cool]

one guy on there is up over 300 games.

[Nicky Santoro]

Reno

there's a guy that is 430 games over .500 and is down money at 52%. there are a bunch of guys who are 100 to 300 games over .500 and are down money.. the guy you mentioned that is 350 games over .500 is at 53%, which is break even.

reno, there are like 20 guys who are like 1246-1249,
2,574-2579.. etc..

like 12 guys who have played 5,000 plus games and are like 2,497-2,503.. incredible how so many have played this many games and are like 5 games over or 5 games under .500..

just goes to show you that even after 10,000 games, they are all within a few games of .500.. it all evens out at the end.. majority are between 49% and 51%.. reno, you and i know that no matter who is just handicapping games out of their head at the right line, will always always end up at very very close to 50%..

this game cannot be beaten by these type of people, no matter how much they know.. they are wasting their time..

[RealSlimShady]

slimmer,

good job, buddy.. i saw 2 guys off that whole list of handicapping pros with at least 1,000 picks that are up money, and barely up..

YOU CAN'T WIN BY HANDICAPPING GAMES, BOYS..

Nicky....that's not even counting the inactive handicappers who quit posting plays after being buried!

[kiwi]

Ok for the 400th time the only ones that win bettting sports fall into two categories.

1. Scalpers
2. Middlers

3. Traders

[Matt Rain]

4. Maniac line-shoppers

There's some overlap between these 4 types though.

[EBSB52]

Reno

there's a guy that is 430 games over .500 and is down money at 52%. there are a bunch of guys who are 100 to 300 games over .500 and are down money.. the guy you mentioned that is 350 games over .500 is at 53%, which is break even.

reno, there are like 20 guys who are like 1246-1249,
2,574-2579.. etc..

like 12 guys who have played 5,000 plus games and are like 2,497-2,503.. incredible how so many have played this many games and are like 5 games over or 5 games under .500..

just goes to show you that even after 10,000 games, they are all within a few games of .500.. it all evens out at the end.. majority are between 49% and 51%.. reno, you and i know that no matter who is just handicapping games out of their head at the right line, will always always end up at very very close to 50%..

this game cannot be beaten by these type of people, no matter how much they know.. they are wasting their time..

The only way is have work buddies that can decide on a line and wager 100 bucks to a nickel w/o getting their feelings hurt if they lose. I've worked at a few places like that, but mostly not, something unravels. It would be cool to have a network of people that could bet w/o juice. Not suggesting anyone do that, it would be illegal, but it would be the only way to beat the game.

[Nicky Santoro]

ebser,


it's funny you say this because that's what i used to do.. back in the days, i'd call a bookie and bet 20 games across laying -110.. then my buddy would be next to me and call up same bookie and bet 15 games.. more than half were opposite sides.. we both were laying -110.. so i told him, what are we dumb? why we both laying -110 for.. our bookie must be laughing. so we decided that why not just bet those same 12 games vs each other at NO JUICE? we did this and do you know how much we both saved in 1 yr? a fukkin ton..

and i also would bet vs friends the board of the NFL lines in the paper and we each got turns to pick a game.. NO JUICE of course.. boys, if you can find a guy that bets, just bet with him if he wants opposite side.. it's great and you save a ton.. but it's a quick way to lose a friend.. especially if you are killing him and he's paying you everyday.. sometimes it's better to pay the bookie cause it saves friendships..

and why is this illegal for, ebser? it's not illegal.. you are not charging any juice, so it's perfectly 100% legal.. and even if it was, how are cops going to catch you making picks off the paper at work with a friend in an office..

but boys, if you want to gamble and have a 50-50 chance at winning, bet with a friend.. you'll save a freakin ton..

[EBSB52]

ebser,


it's funny you say this because that's what i used to do.. back in the days, i'd call a bookie and bet 20 games across laying -110.. then my buddy would be next to me and call up same bookie and bet 15 games.. more than half were opposite sides.. we both were laying -110.. so i told him, what are we dumb? why we both laying -110 for.. our bookie must be laughing. so we decided that why not just bet those same 12 games vs each other at NO JUICE? we did this and do you know how much we both saved in 1 yr? a fukkin ton..

and i also would bet vs friends the board of the NFL lines in the paper and we each got turns to pick a game.. NO JUICE of course.. boys, if you can find a guy that bets, just bet with him if he wants opposite side.. it's great and you save a ton.. but it's a quick way to lose a friend.. especially if you are killing him and he's paying you everyday.. sometimes it's better to pay the bookie cause it saves friendships..

and why is this illegal for, ebser? it's not illegal.. you are not charging any juice, so it's perfectly 100% legal.. and even if it was, how are cops going to catch you making picks off the paper at work with a friend in an office..

but boys, if you want to gamble and have a 50-50 chance at winning, bet with a friend.. you'll save a freakin ton..

Hey Nicky,

Legal or illegal depends on the state. In Canada, a country leaps and bounds better than the US, I believe that it would be legal, in the US, in most or all states, it is probably illegal. And certainly using the internet would make it federal. If they could make it federal they could enact RICO and seize everything you own, they have done it with pot possession, even small amounts. There was a Detroit case where they seized a man's car for picking up a hooker under RICO.

But I agree, hit a guy for a few nickels and he's pissed. There were a lot of Viet Nameese at work, I work aircraft, and they are some betting fools. They can lose dimes and be ok and they're really trustworthy. It would be cool to have a network of people to bet with that didn't take it personally, then you could beat the game.