General to specific money line questions.

[Spektre]

Hi,

In this thread I wish to learn about moneyline betting NFL and NCAAFB from folks who have more experience than me.

I'll start general and then get more specific.

1. What are your general thoughts on betting the ML vs. betting the spread?
2. Is the vig generally more or less in this form of betting?

[jgilmartin]

Depends; have you established fair values for buying/selling points?

[Spektre]

This is one of the reasons I am considering this method for betting.

My models spit out a% chance of winning. Without doing a mapping via hstorical values, it is not directly useful in betting the spread.

[mathdotcom]

Hi,

In this thread I wish to learn about moneyline betting NFL and NCAAFB from folks who have more experience than me.

I'll start general and then get more specific.

1. What are your general thoughts on betting the ML vs. betting the spread?
2. Is the vig generally more or less in this form of betting?

Why don't you open up SBR odds and look for yourself dumbass

[Spektre]

Oh come on MDC, you are slipping.

Over a 9 hour TTFI (Time to First Insult) is way below your mean.

Unfortunately your TTFUI (Time to First Useful Information) is still waiting to be measured.

[buby74]

My shortcut for ncaaf is pointspread=9*ln(a / 1-a) where a is the % chance of winning and ln is the natural log. For nfl i use 7 rather than 9 to reflect the lower scoring in the pros. I derived this from a database of moneylines and spreads. Surpisingly totals had no discernable effect. This also works for basketball.

[mathdotcom]

Oh come on MDC, you are slipping.

Over a 9 hour TTFI (Time to First Insult) is way below your mean.

Unfortunately your TTFUI (Time to First Useful Information) is still waiting to be measured.

Ask a question that doesn't take 5 seconds for you to figure out yourself and I'll be glad to help.

451
452

8:30p

Dallas
N.Y. Giants

+3½ -120
-3½ +100

+4 -113
-4 +104

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+4 -108
-4 +107

+4 -120
-4 -100

+3½ -105
-3½ -115

+3½ -108
-3½ -102

+3½ -110
-3½ -110




#
Time/TV
NFL FOOTBALL
Opener
Sunday, September 9, 2012













453
454

1:00p

Indianapolis
Chicago

+11 -125
-11 +105

+9½ -107
-9½ -101

+9 -110
-9 -110

+9 -110
-9 -110

+9½ -110
-9½ -110

+9½ -110
-9½ -110

+9½ -106
-9½ -101

+9 -110
-9 -110

+9½ -110
-9½ -110

+10½ -130
-10½ +110

+10 -125
-10 +105



455
456

1:00p

Philadelphia
Cleveland

-8 +100
+8 -120

-9 +106
+9 -115

-8 -110
+8 -110

-8 -110
+8 -110

-9 +100
+9 -120

-9 +105
+9 -125

-9 +109
+9 -115

-9 -100
+9 -120

-9 -110
+9 -110

-9 +105
+9 -125

-9 +110
+9 -130



457
458

1:00p

Buffalo
N.Y. Jets

+4½ -110
-4½ -110

+2½ +102
-2½ -110

+3 -125
-3 +105

+3 -125
-3 +105

+3 -130
-3 +110

+2½ -105
-2½ -115

+2½ +108
-2½ -113

+3 -120
-3 -100

+3 -125
-3 +105

+1 +110
-1 -130

+3 -130
-3 +110



459
460

1:00p

Washington
New Orleans

+10 -120
-10 +100

+7 -104
-7 -104

+7 -110
-7 -110

+7 -110
-7 -110

+7½ -120
-7½ +100

+7 -110
-7 -110

+9 -132
-9 +122

+7½ -110
-7½ -110

+7 -110
-7 -110

+8 -130
-8 +110

+9 -145
-9 +125



461
462

1:00p

New England
Tennessee

-7½ +115
+7½ -135

-6 +103
+6 -111

-6 -110
+6 -110

-6 -110
+6 -110

-6 -110
+6 -110

-6 -105
+6 -115

-6 +107
+6 -110

-6 -110
+6 -110

-6 -115
+6 -105

-7 +120
+7 -140

-6 -110
+6 -110



463
464

1:00p

Jacksonville
Minnesota

+4½ -110
-4½ -110

+4 -110
-4 +102

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+4 -109
-4 +102

+4½ -110
-4½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110

+3½ -110
-3½ -110



465
466

1:00p

Miami
Houston

+7½ -135
-7½ +115

+11½ +100
-11½ -108

+12½ -110
-12½ -110

+12½ -110
-12½ -110

+11½ -110
-11½ -110

+12½ -110
-12½ -110

+11½ +100
-11½ -105

+11 -110
-11 -110

+12½ -110
-12½ -110

+13½ -130
-13½ +110

+13 -125
-13 +105



467
468

1:00p

St. Louis
Detroit

+10 -130
-10 +110

+7 -111
-7 +103

+7 -110
-7 -110

+7 -110
-7 -110

+7 -110
-7 -110

+7 -115
-7 -105

+7 -110
-7 +103

+7 -110
-7 -110

+7 -105
-7 -115

+7½ -135
-7½ +115

+7 -110
-7 -110



469
470

1:00p

Atlanta
Kansas City

PK -120
PK +100

-3 +113
+3 -122

-3 +100
+3 -120

-3 +100
+3 -120

-2½ -115
+2½ -105

-3 +100
+3 -120

-3 +113
+3 -122

-2½ -110
+2½ -110

-2½ -115
+2½ -105

-2½ -115
+2½ -105

-3 +100
+3 -120



471
472

4:25p

San Francisco
Green Bay

+7½ -140
-7½ +120

+5 -110
-5 +102

+5 -110
-5 -110

+5 -110
-5 -110

+4½ -110
-4½ -110

+4½ -110
-4½ -110

+5½ -113
-5½ +106

+5½ -115
-5½ -105

+5 -110
-5 -110

+4½ -110
-4½ -110

+5 -110
-5 -110



473
474

4:25p

Carolina
Tampa Bay

-2½ -120
+2½ +100

-1 -120
+1 +111

-3 +110
+3 -130

-3 +110
+3 -130

-2½ -110
+2½ -110

-1 -125
+1 +105

-1 -120
+1 +111

-2½ -110
+2½ -110

-3 +100
+3 -120

-1 -125
+1 +105

-1 -128
+1 +108



475
476

4:25p

Seattle
Arizona

PK +105
PK -125

-2½ -114
+2½ +105

-3 +105
+3 -125

-3 +105
+3 -125

-2½ -115
+2½ -105

-3 +100
+3 -120

-2½ -114
+2½ +105

-2½ -115
+2½ -105

-3 -110
+3 -110

-2½ -120
+2½ +100

-3 +105
+3 -125



477
478

8:20p

Pittsburgh
Denver

+2½ -110
-2½ -110

+1 +110
-1 -119

+2 -110
-2 -110

+2 -110
-2 -110

+1½ -105
-1½ -115

+2 -105
-2 -115

+1 +110
-1 -118

+2 -110
-2 -110

+2 -110
-2 -110

+1 +105
-1 -125

+1 +100
-1 -120







#
Time/TV
NFL FOOTBALL
Opener
Monday, September 10, 2012










451
452

8:30p

Dallas
N.Y. Giants

+160
-185

+168
-187

+165
-195

+165
-195

+165
-185

+165
-190

+178
-180

+162
-200

+165
-195

+170
-185

+165
-190




#
Time/TV
NFL FOOTBALL
Opener
Sunday, September 9, 2012













453
454

1:00p

Indianapolis
Chicago

+425
-550

+400
-470

+370
-450

+370
-450

+380
-480

+390
-475

+410
-460

+350
-500

+400
-525

+380
-475






455
456

1:00p

Philadelphia
Cleveland

-380
+315

-430
+369

-400
+330

-400
+330

-400
+320

-395
+325

-400
+375

-400
+300

-440
+340

-440
+350






457
458

1:00p

Buffalo
N.Y. Jets

+210
-250

+125
-138

+120
-140

+120
-140

+115
-135

+115
-135

+129
-137

+130
-150

+120
-140

+118
-138






459
460

1:00p

Washington
New Orleans

+425
-550

+305
-350

+290
-350

+290
-350

+310
-380

+290
-350

+310
-345

+300
-400

+290
-370

+290
-350






461
462

1:00p

New England
Tennessee

-325
+265

-233
+208

-260
+220

-260
+220

-260
+220

-260
+220

-232
+224

-260
+220

-265
+215

-250
+210






463
464

1:00p

Jacksonville
Minnesota

+200
-240

+177
-197

+170
-200

+170
-200

+175
-210

+175
-205

+179
-195

+190
-230

+170
-200

+170
-200






465
466

1:00p

Miami
Houston

+280
-340

+545
-665

+550
-700

+550
-700

+475
-650

+520
-660

+550
-630

+400
-600

+575
-775

+550
-800






467
468

1:00p

St. Louis
Detroit

+365
-460

+285
-325

+285
-335

+285
-335

+280
-340

+285
-340

+288
-320

+300
-400

+300
-380

+270
-330






469
470

1:00p

Atlanta
Kansas City

-138
+118

-134
+121

-145
+125

-145
+125

-145
+125

-145
+125

-132
+130

-140
+120

-150
+130

-140
+120






471
472

4:25p

San Francisco
Green Bay

+260
-320

+206
-231

+200
-240

+200
-240

+195
-235

+200
-240

+212
-228

+200
-240

+195
-240

+190
-230






473
474

4:25p

Carolina
Tampa Bay

-150
+130

-129
+117

-140
+120

-140
+120

-135
+115

-130
+110

-128
+118

-130
+110

-140
+120

-132
+112






475
476

4:25p

Seattle
Arizona

+110
-130

-144
+130

-145
+125

-145
+125

-145
+125

-150
+130

-145
+134

-140
+120

-145
+125

-145
+125

-110
-110



477
478

8:20p

Pittsburgh
Denver

+110
-130

+115
-127

+110
-130

+110
-130

+110
-130

+110
-130

+116
-126

+110
-130

+110
-130

+113
-133

-110
-110

[Spektre]

And this cutting and pasting relates the method of betting the spread vs betting the moneyline how?

For example, the moneyline:
+260
-320

Alhough this spread of numbers is 60 is it REALLY 6 times the expected vig of a spread -110 bet?

[mathdotcom]

Wow.. EXPECTED vig? You're fukked pal.

Withdraw all your money from books and thank me later.

You bet when the line the book offers is better than the fair line you've made yourself.

What if the moneyline was
+100
-580

Is the vig REALLY that much greater than on -110/-110?

[Spektre]

Or better yet, why not withdraw from the post MDC and not assume someone knows the answer to a question he is asking.

What exactly is you EV when operating under that assumption?

Who said I am playing at books yet?

[jgilmartin]

Spektre, I think you should read these:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/12142-introduction-expectations-theoretical-hold.html

[mathdotcom]

Spektre, I think you should read these:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/11994-introduction-betting-lines-percentages.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...ical-hold.html

Why? He's clearly ready to nail Pinnacle's NFL lines on Sunday morning.

[Spektre]

Why? He's clearly ready to nail Pinnacle's NFL lines on Sunday morning.

Oh there you go ASS-uming again MDC.

[mathdotcom]

Good one pal

Get the fukk out of here

Can we get a Kindergarten subforum?

[Spektre]

Thank you thank you.

Leading with the insults and then degenerating to 4 letters words. Weren't you complaining about someone else's English skills recently?

Thanks jglmartin, I'll read those.

[Spektre]

Tip of the hat to the people who sent PMs. Very helpful.