How are Phil Steele's PreSeason Picks Doing Now?

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With all but maybe a quater to a third of the regular season left for most teams?

Just out of curiousity I took an hour and a look. As I know that many here believe that Steele's Preseason magazine is like the 10 Commandants delivered from Mt Sinai by Moses.

Among other things Steele guesses who will win each conference, or division of same. Also, he uses certain methodologies to figure who will likely be improving or declining each year.

Some of his picks are on the mark, usually the commonly known ones. Last year, tho, he picked Boston College to finish dead last in their division of the ACC - they won the ACC.

(This year he picks them to be 5th in that division - and so far they are confounding him again.)

Here, first, are the picks he made in each BCS conference that are either not the run of the mill ones that everyone had, or that are mill runners that have so far struck out.

SEC WEST - He had Auburn on top. Alabama he had third.

ACC Atlantic - Like almost everyone else, he had Clemson winning it.

In the ACC Coastal he did better - with VTECH on top, and North Carolina second. Still competitive there, but NC was a good call. I also liked 'em and they were one of only two preseason future bets I made (at 8-1) to win a conf championship.

BIG EAST - He had W Va on top - that's possible - but UConn to finish only in front of hopeless Syracuse. Right now, Huskies are 6-2 SU. Hard to fault Steele here, as the BE is pretty much a scramble.

But not too much all that startling and "right on" in his picks.

Back with his "system plays" in next post.

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Steele also takes note in a number of pages the teams that had problems last year that he figures were out of the ordinary, and that should come back to better times this year. (Like injuries and suspesions)

And, conversely, the teams that had the breaks (like a favorable schedule) that are less fortunate this year.

He usually has a long list of each, but I'm taking only the top three:

RETURNING LETTERMEN; (A) I'll use to signify the teams who have a lot, and should IMPROVE this year. (B) who had few, and who, he thinks, should decline this year. Same for his other methodologies.

However, I am giving their current records (as of Oct 30) against the spread - does Phil understand that almost all the buyers of his magazine are bettors? (More on that next post)

(A) TEMPLE 4-2 ats --N. ILLINOIS 5-2 --- OHIO ST 2-6 (Top two money makers, top 3 show a loss with the juice)

(B) Only two: VIRGINIA 4-3 --- AF 5-2 (small example, but not too good)

INJURIES/SUSPENSIONS

(A) UTAH 4-3 --- STANFORD 4-4 --- UCLA 5-3
(B) VANDY 6-2 --- CINCY 2-4 --- ILLINOIS 3-4

SCHEDULE STRENGTH

(A) NOTRE DAME 5-2 --- ARIZONA 6-2 ---- OKLA STATE 7-0
(B) KANSAS 4-3 --- ARKANSAS 3-4 ---- VIRGINIA 4-3

TURNOVERS

(A) BAYLOR 4-3 ---- NEBRASKA 4-2-4 ---N ILLINOIS 5-2
(B) KANSAS 4-3 --- LSU 2-4 ---- FLA ATLANTIC 3-4-1

Most promising from this tiny one year sample (and with season still ongoing) is improving teams via weaker schedule strength. So get out your old P steels preseason mags and check that out!

Otherwise, not too much for the bettor, tho one would need at least 10 years of Steeles methodology picks to judge better.

He also have two other sections, one of which has done well vs the spread. His MOST IMPROVED TEAMS (top three, he also gives a bunch here) are NOTRE DAME 5-2 --- N. CAROLINA 4-3 --- N. ILLINOIS 5-2

Not too good are his SURPRISE TEAMS, as some of them suprised in a negative manner: USF 2-5 --- CLEMSON 0-5 --- TEXAS TECH 3-3

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I buy Phil's magazine every year. Worth the ten bucks. But not the be-all and end-all that some bettors suppose.

I much preferred the Gold Sheet's small preseason magazine that they used to put out after the summer game, when starting lineups for college were much more solidified than they are back in April or May, when most of the preseason football mags are written.

Unfortunately, most bettors were not bright enough to appreciate that publication - they want there college foots fix in the springtime - and it went to June publication, and is now free, online. But no longer comes out with projected starters, after the summer practices.

Still, Steele's mag is worth it, with some good info.

But: Steele must know his mag is bought mainly by bettors - so why in hell does he not have more ATS info. Like the ATS record for Head Coaches, both in regular seasaon and in the bowls?

Why does he have such a crappy 10 year long log - with the ATS records, yes, but without the important info of date played. I think he also omits overtime designations, night games etc.

And, above all, while he boasts of "SOOOOOO MUCH INFORMATION" a lot of it is just useless bullsh1t to a bettor.

Phil, most of us don't care a whit what a team was doing 5 or 10 years ago - that helps us not at all to win this season. Two years back is OK, if relevant to this season. Keep your friggin' history lessons to youself.

And use the space saved for the following: the 40 times of the projected starters and backups; putting the dates and OTs in on the logs; telling us more of spread strenghts and weaknesses. Giving up coaching records not only SU but ATS.

I know you use your inexpensive preseason mag as a marketing tool for your profitable tout service during the season, where it's ALL ABOUT THE ATS. So how about acknowledging that?

Steele does not bet on college sports. And, he is deep into a relationship with the anti-gambling NCAA and its minions, the athletic directors, etc. Check out the list of folks he thanks in his publication. And, he is on every committee for every postseasosn college award, including the Heisman,

But he makes his big coin as a tout, with a customer base that loves to bet on college football. WTF? I'm a bit surpised a dissapointed customer of his tout service has not yet blown the whistle on the guy with the colleges and the NCAA.

Well, maybe if that happened Phil would stop this charade in his preseason mag that there ain't no such animal as a football bettor.

And come out with a much better publication!