The Seer's 2012 NCAAF & NFL thread

**BuckeyeNick** · 10-21-12, 06:41 PM

what do ya think seer, I have a 4 team parlay alive with 3 wins and only needing Pitt tonight to win 200. Should I back myself up and take Cincy for 100? I really do like the Steelers tonight and even wanting to go for it putting another 300 flat bet down on the Steelers.

**Lazyboy311** · 10-21-12, 06:44 PM

Originally posted by BuckeyeNick

what do ya think seer, I have a 4 team parlay alive with 3 wins and only needing Pitt tonight to win 200. Should I back myself up and take Cincy for 100? I really do like the Steelers tonight and even wanting to go for it putting another 300 flat bet down on the Steelers.

Hedge it. Free money is always best

**BuckeyeNick** · 10-21-12, 06:47 PM

I know that's the smart thing to do. lol

**BuckeyeNick** · 10-21-12, 07:10 PM

anyone else? What would you guys do?

**groovybrandone** · 10-21-12, 07:13 PM

you could always wait for live bets, wait for cinci to go down (if it happens) pick them up at a +3-4, try to get a middle. give yourself a chance to hit both

**The Seer** · 10-21-12, 07:18 PM

Originally posted by jihadvillager

was expecting you to fade both public plays after such a public morning but you actually cap the game and take all factors into consideration- which is the way to go long term. I don't know much about anything so I just look at lines & public %'s and guess. Books are due is probably not the best strategy they will get it in the long run but doesnt guarantee a cover in the afternoon or night either for the anti public side.

I shoulda went with your strategy
Oak 19 1st downs & 350 yds, Jax 9 1st downs 209 yds
Oak wins by 3 thanks to 3 turnovers in regulation

**The Seer** · 10-21-12, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by BuckeyeNick

what do ya think seer, I have a 4 team parlay alive with 3 wins and only needing Pitt tonight to win 200. Should I back myself up and take Cincy for 100? I really do like the Steelers tonight and even wanting to go for it putting another 300 flat bet down on the Steelers.

that's tough because I like Pit here too

**Lazyboy311** · 10-21-12, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by groovybrandone

you could always wait for live bets, wait for cinci to go down (if it happens) pick them up at a +3-4, try to get a middle. give yourself a chance to hit both

Only prob w/that is you may never get the chance if they score 1st. IMO, take the hedge before game, lock in the free $$, and enjoy the game. Leave the least to chance as possible

**The Seer** · 10-21-12, 07:20 PM

Pitts -1 -110 1 unit

couldnt find any props

**BuckeyeNick** · 10-21-12, 10:06 PM

thanks seer, i went for it. so far looking good with 8:41 left.

**The Seer** · 10-22-12, 03:25 PM

Chicago -6 1/2 -110 1 unit
over 46 1/2 -110 2 units
After last week's cover vs the Eagles & turnover machine Vick, the lions are now 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The face the best scoring defense in the NFL at 14 pts per game that's also tied for 1st in takeaways. Detroit's defense is allowing 27 points per game. Chicago comes off the bye week & teams off the bye are 7-2 ATS this season. I think that has something to do with the extra time off provided by the new collective bargaining agreement. Surprisingly, Cutler is 10-1 SU & ATS his last 10 games. He's been playing well overall & I think he has another good game against the Lions secondary. I also expect Forte to have a 100 yd game. Although Chicago has a been allowing a league low on defense and I think they cover, I think the over is a stronger play due to turnovers and Detroit under Schwartz tends to go over in road games and division games. Schwartz is 20-8 over the total in road games and 11 -1 over the last 12.
I may add some props later.

**tblues2005** · 10-22-12, 04:21 PM

I agree there the Seer. Chicago is a strong play no doubt. Things point towards them big time.

**moodyt2** · 10-22-12, 04:21 PM

Chicago -6.5 2 units
Over 46.5 1 unit

Teased it also for 2 units

**tblues2005** · 10-22-12, 04:28 PM

Moodyt you should tease that also as a back up on it too.

**moodyt2** · 10-22-12, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by tblues2005

Moodyt you should tease that also as a back up on it too.

Did you play the same as me?

**DirtyBird1500** · 10-22-12, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

Chicago -6 1/2 -110 1 unit
over 46 1/2 -110 2 units

I'm with you tonight Seer! I had already locked mine in earlier, so I have 2 units on Chi and 1 unit on the over, but let's hit 'em both so it doesn't matter!

**Brutus84** · 10-22-12, 05:43 PM

Prop I like a lot Pettigrew ov 4.5 receptions -125

**The Seer** · 10-22-12, 06:39 PM

Forte has 975 yds from scrimmage in 8 career games vs them but everything I saw was too high.
I'm passing on props.
I added another unit to Chicago, making it 2 on the side and 2 on the over
Bears -6 1/2 -110 1 unit
GL fellas

**moodyt2** · 10-22-12, 06:52 PM

MLB? Who u like?

**shookid** · 10-22-12, 06:58 PM

i have forte 115.5 total reception and rushing yards. kind of digging it.

**2TrivBicc** · 10-22-12, 07:01 PM

Thx Seer and BOL tonight everyone! It's a new week & the marathon continues! TMC

**CupWanted** · 10-22-12, 07:10 PM

on the same sides seer. I teased it down to -2.5 ov 40.5.

GL

**DirtyBird1500** · 10-22-12, 07:27 PM

Looks like the total is coming down to 45 now...hope thats not a bad sign.

**The Seer** · 10-22-12, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by DirtyBird1500

Looks like the total is coming down to 45 now...hope thats not a bad sign.

Line movement was wrong a lot yesterday, I'm fine with what I've got

moody, as far as MLB, I didn't play it but I think the Giants will win it

**moodyt2** · 10-22-12, 10:50 PM

Cutler sucks

**The Seer** · 10-22-12, 10:52 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

Cutler sucks

got back-doored, shouldn't have even been that close

**daimoshokage** · 10-23-12, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by The Seer

Chicago -6 1/2 -110 1 unit LOSER
over 46 1/2 -110 2 units LOSER