The Seer's 2012 NCAAF & NFL thread

Smoooookeyyyyy · 10-09-12, 11:49 PM

He just bet two units on it, how is going to persuade you not to bet the other way? If that isn't convincing enough.

LawHog · 10-10-12, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by Smoooookeyyyyy

He just bet two units on it, how is going to persuade you not to bet the other way? If that isn't convincing enough.

Yes, I quoted The Seer's 2-unit play on Arkansas, and expressed my gratitude for his exemplary capping this season. Nobody expects any brilliance from a Tennessee fan, so I'll try to spell it out for you: I made the following bets against my own team this season:

ULM +30 W
Bama -21 W
Rutgers +9.5 W
A&M -13.5 W x 4 units
Auburn -10 L

The Seer (whom I respect and will tail all year) has bet Arkansas (my team) -17 this week, with 2 units. He also bet LSU -2.5 and wrote a paragraph about it in post #1045. I'm asking him to tell me a reason why my Hogs (who are terrible) will win by -17 against Kentucky.

xcrazyaenoyx · 10-10-12, 12:38 AM

hey seers

what you think about texas tech+4? i'm really liking it on my lock of this week. i been watching these line movements everyone still pounding and line still the same -3.5 sometime back to -4. let me know what you think . thanks

Smutbucket · 10-10-12, 12:43 AM

LawHog, one reason I would stay away from this game, is that the oddsmakers have consistently over valued this arkansas team, more than anyone else in NCAAF so far this season, by an average of -18.8 pts a game.....the oddsmakers know this, and will adjust their lines accordingly, Ive looked into the numbers of this game, and dont see an edge, but based on this information alone, I see and edge for arkansas, but Im not the typea person to lay a bet based on something like that,

The Seer · 10-10-12, 01:17 AM

Originally posted by LawHog

Seer, I'm a religious follower of your NCAA calls, and you deserve immense credit for making betting fun for many of us this year. I've made well over 10 units on your picks alone.

I'm also an Arkansas graduate living in Fayetteville, and this is the worst and most rudderless Razorback team we have fielded in my 30 years of being a fan, and I struggle to believe we can beat Kentucky, much less by 17. I called the ULM cover earlier in this thread, and they beat us. Auburn is by leaps and bounds the worst and most hopeless team in the SEC, so that win last week means next to nothing. Can you convince me not to take Kentucky by +17, or even on the ML, at this point?

No offense but I'm not here to convince anyone to pick anything. I just post what I bet & if I can help another poster or vice-versa then that is a bonus. By all means, if you feel you know what the team is gonna do then go with what you think. I've been right in their games the last 3 weeks and I think I've got a good read on them. I think having those two road games were good to get them away and winning the last one will help their confidence no matter what. Sometimes, winning is winning. I think these kids see they can somewhat salvage the season & will be welcomed back in front of the home crowd. Auburn is not a good team but they did beat Monroe. Ky's claim to fame this year is beating Kent. On a neutral field, I'll take Auburn over Kentucky. It's a 2 unit play for me though, nothing more.

LawHog · 10-10-12, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by Smutbucket

LawHog, one reason I would stay away from this game, is that the oddsmakers have consistently over valued this arkansas team, more than anyone else in NCAAF so far this season, by an average of -18.8 pts a game.....the oddsmakers know this, and will adjust their lines accordingly, Ive looked into the numbers of this game, and dont see an edge, but based on this information alone, I see and edge for arkansas, but Im not the typea person to lay a bet based on something like that,

Fair enough, but I would guess that Seer isn't playing 2U on Ark based solely on prior overvalue, especially at -17. I think -7.5 would have been generous. My Razorbacks are adrift and leaderless in an SEC full of sharks, and we have only managed to beat lowly FCS Jacksonville State and bottom-feeder Auburn, whose coaches I wouldn't trust to manage an IHOP in Knoxville.

The Seer · 10-10-12, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by xcrazyaenoyx

what you think about texas tech+4? i'm really liking it on my lock of this week. i been watching these line movements everyone still pounding and line still the same -3.5 sometime back to -4. let me know what you think . thanks

I'm on them too. Wait til Saturday. The $ will be pouring in on WV then. You might get a better #. I think their defense rebounds this week. Two weeks back and forth to Texas for WV should be tough for them. Also, it's a sandwich game. WV has #6 Kst at home next week.

LawHog · 10-10-12, 01:22 AM

Originally posted by The Seer

No offense but I'm not here to convince anyone to pick anything. I just post what I bet & if I can help another poster or vice-versa then that is a bonus. By all means, if you feel you know what the team is gonna do then go with what you think. I've been right in their games the last 3 weeks and I think I've got a good read on them. I think having those two road games were good to get them away and winning the last one will help their confidence no matter what. Sometimes, winning is winning. I think these kids see they can somewhat salvage the season & will be welcomed back in front of the home crowd. Auburn is not a good team but they did beat Monroe. Ky's claim to fame this year is beating Kent. On a neutral field, I'll take Auburn over Kentucky. It's a 2 unit play for me though, nothing more.

Thanks, Seer. I only meant to ask you why take Ark -17, and I appreciate the response.

The Seer · 10-10-12, 01:28 AM

Originally posted by LawHog

Thanks, Seer.

BTW, I actually think the line being 17 makes me think I'm right. They haven't been overvalued all year. They were 10 pt dogs last week. That was way too much.
I actually think they beat Kentucky by 4 tds.

sneakerhead · 10-10-12, 01:35 AM

Seer what do you think about Bills on Sunday?

Smutbucket · 10-10-12, 01:37 AM

Originally posted by The Seer

BTW, I actually think the line being 17 makes me think I'm right. They haven't been overvalued all year. They were 10 pt dogs last week. That was way too much.
I actually think they beat Kentucky by 4 tds.

sorry I should have clarified. overvalued ON AVERAGE more than any team this year.....not counting jax state of course, they overvalued them the first 4 games by almost -30 pts each game....last weeks game was a prime example of vegas seeing this and over compensating for their mistakes.....it'll be intresting to see how accurate they are this week, but I wont be touching this game

The Seer · 10-10-12, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by sneakerhead

Seer what do you think about Bills on Sunday?

As of now, I'm passing on it. It looks about right to me.

xcrazyaenoyx · 10-10-12, 02:07 AM

i think you forgot about me lolz. its ok i posted this earlier
what you think about texas tech+4? i'm really liking it on my lock of this week. i been watching these line movements everyone still pounding and line still the same -3.5 sometime back to -4. let me know what you think . thanks

The Seer · 10-10-12, 02:15 AM

Originally posted by xcrazyaenoyx

i think you forgot about me lolz. its ok i posted this earlier
what you think about texas tech+4? i'm really liking it on my lock of this week. i been watching these line movements everyone still pounding and line still the same -3.5 sometime back to -4. let me know what you think . thanks

check post 1057, good night

xcrazyaenoyx · 10-10-12, 02:38 AM

oh woops lolz. thanks! looking forward to see your picks this week! keep up the good work!

moodyt2 · 10-10-12, 02:49 PM

Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?

Romanov · 10-10-12, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?

He would fxcking post them.

Leave the guy alone unless you want him to tire

tusky26 · 10-10-12, 06:25 PM

I too live in Arkansas and thought I could contribute to the discussion about them. I agree that they are "rudderless" since losing Petrino, but I disagree with them being the worst team in 30 years. These are the same players that were recruited by him, and the same team that were given high hopes before the firing. Same kids with the same ability. Having their leader ripped away from them right before the season starts took a helluva toll on their young hopes and I believe that is why they have turned in the season they have. I think the win last week brought their hearts back into why they came here, and righted the minds of the team. In no way am I saying that coach Smith is the right leader for this team. Heck, he's probably more worried about his bankruptcy than his team right now, but the players have seen what it feels like to win again.

How this factors into hadicapping is not my area of expertise. I leave that up to The Seer. I just don't think this team is as bad as you led onto.

Trackrec · 10-10-12, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?

You may want to read about the goose that laid the golden egg. There's a great moral to the story.

Smoooookeyyyyy · 10-10-12, 10:41 PM

Sometimes, reading is the best skill that you can learn.

moodyt2 · 10-10-12, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by Trackrec

You may want to read about the goose that laid the golden egg. There's a great moral to the story.

I have no idea what your talking about. I simply asked if there are any lines other than LSU & Arkansas that Seer may go ahead and lock in. What is wrong with asking that?

therocket · 10-10-12, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?

Patience grasshopper.

moodyt2 · 10-10-12, 11:11 PM

Originally posted by therocket

Patience grasshopper.

I'm patient.

canepole · 10-11-12, 07:26 AM

Thanks seer Read all ypur picks and respect your vast knowledge

jihadvillager · 10-11-12, 02:17 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

for Sat:

Arkansas -17 -110 2 units
LSU -2 1/2 -110 2 units

Arkansas moved to -18 already
LSU is at -3 on a lot of books now.

Good thing we locked early

hurricane1091 · 10-11-12, 04:35 PM

Anything for tonight?

The Seer · 10-11-12, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by moodyt2

Hey Seer . Is there any more games we need to grab early? or do we just need to wait right before the game?

I would have posted them at the time. I post them right when I bet them. There are just so many games to go over that sometimes when I get all of my info together & I decide on one it has already moved.

Originally posted by Trackrec

You may want to read about the goose that laid the golden egg. There's a great moral to the story.

Originally posted by jihadvillager

Arkansas moved to -18 already
LSU is at -3 on a lot of books now.

Good thing we locked early

yes it is

freeVICK · 10-11-12, 04:40 PM

Any early leans for Pitt/tenn game tonight?

The Seer · 10-11-12, 05:03 PM

So far for tonight:
Troy +1 1/2 -110 1 unit
Going with my lean from earlier in the week: WK has been a covering machine but they are the road fave in the Thursday night game against a Troy team that will be back home after two road wins.
Tulsa -17-110 2 units
I think this years game will resemble last year's blowout that Tulsa won by 29. We have one of the better offenses in the country facing the #94 defense. Tulsa should rush for over 250 yds.

still finishing up on the other 2 games

martino maserati · 10-11-12, 05:06 PM

whats up seer thanks for everything you got going here.... already on pitt +4 under 52.5 and az st -12 in a teaser how do you think that sounds buddy?

Romanov · 10-11-12, 05:21 PM

I can't believe people are continually using this as an advice column. Seer has been an ATM and you guys aren't satisfied. A few years ago my ncaab/nba thread gained a little steam with the community and people pming me & asking shit in my thread all the time tired me out from the forum. I can't speak for seer, but i wouldn't run the risk of losing him just for a weekend play request. He is on this site just for fun, you aren't paying him, and your relentless "hey is this a good play" posts are clogging the goldmine this thread is.

Pistol_Peter · 10-11-12, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

So far for tonight:
Troy +1 1/2 -110 1 unit
Going with my lean from earlier in the week: WK has been a covering machine but they are the road fave in the Thursday night game against a Troy team that will be back home after two road wins.
Tulsa -17-110 2 units
I think this years game will resemble last year's blowout that Tulsa won by 29. We have one of the better offenses in the country facing the #94 defense. Tulsa should rush for over 250 yds.

still finishing up on the other 2 games

I'm surprised you didn't just go for the money line for Troy.
Thanks for the picks btw, BOL!

Louisvillekid1 · 10-11-12, 05:29 PM

Seer good luck tonight, pal!

I'm on Pitt/Tenn u 43.5 & Tulsa -9.5 1st half...

martino maserati · 10-11-12, 05:33 PM

nice play louisville bol

Lazyboy311 · 10-11-12, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by The Seer

So far for tonight:
Troy +1 1/2 -110 1 unit
Going with my lean from earlier in the week: WK has been a covering machine but they are the road fave in the Thursday night game against a Troy team that will be back home after two road wins.

C'mon Man!!! Gotta roll w/my toppers here. Only two games we have lost in over a year are at (then) #1 LSU and #1 Alabama. Coach Taggert is just like Charlie Sheen...all he cares abt is WINNING. Haha BOL regardless

You still da man!!