Patriots + Packers + Texans to win Division = +120

[LT Profits]

Texans will have a tough time replacing Mario Williams. And now Arian Foster is a vegetarian... not sure if he will be able to maintain strength with the lack of protein in his diet.

They won't miss Williams because they didn't miss a beat after he went down last year, and they have a guy behind Foster that would be a stater on other teams. The Texans have the shortest odds of any team to win their division in the NFL, so they are the MOST likely to repeat.

[Big Bear]

thanks for that LT. you the man homie

[LT Profits]

OK, after computing Pinny No-Vig Lines, +120 is NOT good value. Hold is just over 11% on each division and I come up with no-vigs of Houston -314.3, New England -270.9 and Green Bay -209.2. No-Vig parlay is about +167.

[rm18]

AFC south is the worst division I doubt anyone going better than 10-6 could easily be won at 8-8. Houston will probably lose 5-6 games outside of the division, if either Tenny or Indy sweeps them they have almost no chance to win the division.

[LT Profits]

This is what I have:
HOUSTON TEXANS 10-6
TENNESSEE TITANS 7-9
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 6-10
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 3-13

[infamousbacardi]

AFC south is the worst division I doubt anyone going better than 10-6 could easily be won at 8-8. Houston will probably lose 5-6 games outside of the division, IF either Tenny or Indy sweeps them they have almost no chance to win the division.

That's a mighty-sized IF rm.

[rm18]

That's a mighty-sized IF rm.

Redskins swept the World Champs last year, and Houston is not even a top 10 team easily can happen, Houston should win but laying -500 or so is not a good bet with injuries, unknowns, and luck.

[LT Profits]

Redskins swept the World Champs last year, and Houston is not even a top 10 team easily can happen, Houston should win but laying -500 or so is not a good bet with injuries, unknowns, and luck.

Um, WHAT? Houston is one of three best teams in AFC, along with New England and Baltimore. I rate Houston second in conference, Ravens third.

[k13]

OK, after computing Pinny No-Vig Lines, +120 is NOT good value. Hold is just over 11% on each division and I come up with no-vigs of Houston -314.3, New England -270.9 and Green Bay -209.2. No-Vig parlay is about +167.

Pinny is really juicing the Patriots, found -300 somewhere, -200 gb and -200 sf.

Just another reason Pats win easy, Line will be -10000 by mid-season. Division finished by like week 13.

[rm18]

Um, WHAT? Houston is one of three best teams in AFC, along with New England and Baltimore. I rate Houston second in conference, Ravens third.

KC
Baltimore
NE
NYJ
Houston

then a lot of NFC teams

[p19101]

kc
baltimore
ne
nyj
houston

then a lot of nfc teams

bahahahahaha

[LT Profits]

KC
Baltimore
NE
NYJ
Houston

then a lot of NFC teams

I like KC to win division but they are nowhere near Houston's level. Jets finish 8-8 at BEST, Buffalo finishes second in the East (albeit a distant second).

[LT Profits]

And its a tough call between AFC South and AFC West for which is the worst division. All four teams in the West are just about equally bad. The South has two teams that are worse than the teams in the West (Jax, Indy), one team that is about equivalent to West teams (Tenn), but South also has the only team in either division that is actually good and would be good in any division.

[Rich Boy]

These divisional plays could even be correlated if you look at team schedules.

Multiplying the individual division win probabilities does not necessarily equal the probability of winning the 3 team parlay

Keep that in mind.

[Goat Milk]

The Pats are the surest thing here.

[k13]

I remember when Pats were -150 or so to win the division at one point during the season and people thought that was a bad number because the JETS/BILLS might win it.....


Couple weeks later the line is -1000000000000



Meanwhile they diss Sanchez every chance they get yet.


Even better when Pats were +2 dogs to the Jets and everyone loved the Jets because Patriots lost two in a row and looked "bad" against the Giants. Gotta love perception.

Patriots 37-16 Jets lol

I hate the Patriots but seriously the contradictions make me laugh.

[thetrinity]

k u are willing to give us even money to go against this?

[slacker00]

I'd rather swap the Bears for the Packers for a much bigger payoff.

[k13]

k u are willing to give us even money to go against this?

Sure, how many points do you want to bet?

[therushishere]

Texans will win the division and wont surprise anyone.
Colts will be impressive in spurts as people expect with Andrew Luck but ultimately will not contend, just as most expect.

Jacksonville and Tennessee though, will surprise people.
Jacksonville may very well be competing for a playoff spot while Tennessee will be paying a lot of attention to the top prospects in next years draft.

[k13]

Can this bump cause the Packers to lose to the Bears this week?

[detroitlionsfan]

smart play

its kinda like getting packers moneyline at +120 vs bears

[tto827]

Can this bump cause the Packers to lose to the Bears this week?

From my messing around with the NFL playoff machine on ESPN, even if the Bears win this week, if the Bears and Pack finish tied, the Pack will still win the division. Could change based on which games they win/lose, but I think its safe to say the Packers need to lose two games the rest of the season for this to lose.

[GunShard]

Packers seem to get many injuries late in the regular season.

[thetrinity]

ya im prob gona lose this to him, bet him some points on this b4 the season

[k13]

No parity in the NFL. Same old.