Question for the math guru's - NFL

[SlickFazzer]

The team that covers the spread wins the game a large % of the time - i have heard 70%+, no clue on this accuracy over large sample.

Question for discussion: Thoughts on betting the moneyline on every underdog ATS that bet you bet in NFL?

Bet spread and moneyline?

[durito]

sure, just follow the links at the top of the page

[dwaechte]

It depends on how you cap the game and the specific numbers that are offered for the spread, total, and ML. But no, there's no reason to blindly do this.

[rm18]

probably more like 85%

[SlickFazzer]

Let me try it this way:

Look back on your records, If you would have also bet the moneyline on every underdog NFL game you bet in the last 5 years, would you be better off?

[dwaechte]

Let me try it this way:

Look back on your records, If you would have also bet the moneyline on every underdog NFL game you bet in the last 5 years, would you be better off?

If the sample size was high enough, you'd probably find that it worked out almost the exact same unless you have a tendency to play a certain type of game where there's been a market inefficiency between the ML and spread.

[rm18]

Let me try it this way:

Look back on your records, If you would have also bet the moneyline on every underdog NFL game you bet in the last 5 years, would you be better off?

Definitely no, you are not old enough to remember 2006? 2006 season I think favorite ML's were up over 70 units. Historically I think maybe, definitely you would lose less than favorites, but not sure about profit.

[Justin7]

Moneylines and spreads are just two ways to measure a fixed quantity.

Look at milk. Price per gallon versus price per quart. There is a direct correlation between the milk prices. It's the same dela with spread/moneyline, although not linear.

You can't blindly "bet a dog" because of the stat you described. You should bet the dog ML when it offers more value than the spread bet.

NFL. You know the dog is the right side.
Dog is +3 with a total of 42.
3 hypotheticals.
ML is +130
ML is +145
ML is +160

In each hypothetical, which is the best play? Obviously, it changes with each example. At +130, dog +3 -110 is better. At +160, the ML is better. At +145, it's close to the same.

If you blindly bet any system without looking at prices, you're screwed.

[reno cool]

sure, just follow the links at the top of the page

what does that mean?