Breeders Cup Day Santa Anita FRIDAY 4 picks

[ritehook]

Don't really care for the expanded menu and overflowing into two days. Greed wins out every time.

And thanx to fiveteamer for saving me a trip to the store, and the fin. Sometimes, on big days, you go to buy the Form the day of the race, they're sold out.

I have only one BC race for Friday, but three on the undercard.

Race 1 = #3 FIVE STAR THIEF - solid stable, look ready

Race 3 - Filly and Mare Sprint BC - # 5 INDIAN BLESSING favorite and deservedly so

Race 9 - # 6 SIX PACK ABS jumping up, stretching out, but "you must speculate, you can't grind.)

Race 10 - # 12 VULCAN - working regularly, good barn

[fiveteamer]

#5 is Indian Blessing, I think she gets beat here!!

[ritehook]

#5 is Indian Blessing, I think she gets beat here!!

Normally, I avoid faves, and you're on sound ground in fading them.

But I really don't "handicap," to do that right takes more hours than I have in the day.

Back in the "old days," (yikes, '70s and '80s !) I used to occasionally write handicapping and system articles for several racing and gambling pubs (like Gambling Times, Amer Turf Monthly etc).

So, when I burned out on 'capping, and wanted to keep a hand in it on occasion, I condensed my best approaches and angles into a set of "systems", tho flexible ones.

Usually, I'm on a pricier horse than this big fave in the 3rd.

[fiveteamer]

#4 scares me in the F&M Sprint.

This one could be any kind. These S.A. imports can turn out to be freaks.

[Richkas]

#4 scares me in the F&M Sprint.

This one could be any kind. These S.A. imports can turn out to be freaks.

and she gets first time lasix

[ritehook]

And, contrary to popular opinion, a hot fave, say 7-5 or less, should be bet to PLACE, or win and place, rather than just win.

Because the dropoff in price from win to place is nowhere near as much as it usually is with less chalky winners. The few extra cents doesn't justify the added risk of a win bet.

Conversely, longshots should always be bet to win only. I know most race fans will vigorously contend that, but it is accurate. Long-run, that is, and that's the only thing that counts.

The drop from win to place prices with longshots can be severe, and really bad if the chalk runs second.

Longterm, bet the longies win only - tho I know their is psychological comfort in "backing them up."

Wonder if ganch knows horse betting and can back me up on this, LOL

[ritehook]

#5 is Indian Blessing, I think she gets beat here!!

Right, I was trying to read my scratchy scribbled notes I made on the races. I changed it

[blackbart]

And, contrary to popular opinion, a hot fave, say 7-5 or less, should be bet to PLACE, or win and place, rather than just win.

Because the dropoff in price from win to place is nowhere near as much as it usually is with less chalky winners. The few extra cents doesn't justify the added risk of a win bet.

Conversely, longshots should always be bet to win only. I know most race fans will vigorously contend that, but it is accurate. Long-run, that is, and that's the only thing that counts.

The drop from win to place prices with longshots can be severe, and really bad if the chalk runs second.

Longterm, bet the longies win only - tho I know their is psychological comfort in "backing them up."

Wonder if ganch knows horse betting and can back me up on this, LOL

you have convinced me

[smitch124]

some big favs on big days pay more to place than win, sometimes way more; See Big Brown in this years' Preakness

[ritehook]

some big favs on big days pay more to place than win, sometimes way more; See Big Brown in this years' Preakness

That's right, and for a coupla reasons. Tourists betting, who think you have to bet only to win; Souvenir collectors, who want to save a win ticket on an overhyped "historical" horse; and that a longshot running second means less money to share in that pool