Kerber over V Williams, Does the L Word Apply!

[MeatWad]

When does a match/game qualify as a ? There seems to be alot of posters who have mastered the art of the lock. I like this matchup alot, but don't know whether it is a lock. Is there a formula for determining whether a game is a lock such as: expected win % - % the odds indicate that player/team wins?

I guess this is theoretical and maybe just a matter of semantics, but I want to know if Kerber is a lock today? Also are posters of locks doomed to lose over 50% of the time?

[jbart28]

Venus was in great form tuesday but with her immune problem could be lethargic wednesday. She had a doubles match tuesday as well.

[MeatWad]

Two players going in completely opposite directions. While V Williams is far from a slouch even at her advanced age, any woman on the tour would quickly name Kerber as the most improved player on the circuit. Her form at Wimbledon just a few weeks ago on these exact courts was brilliant and she is supremely consistent. She is a gritty player who not only showed resilence down 3-5 to Lisicki in the 3rd set before winning and reaching her 2nd grand slam semis in the past year along with a quarterfinal at the French, but also dominace dispatching of Klisters in less than 50 minutes and not losing a set in her 1st four Wimbledon matches.


Williams on the other hand won the Olympic gold 12 years ago, and obviously the 32 year old hasn't been the same player for several years. Although she is always stoked for this event, her game is declining, her immobility make her much better suited for doubles. She hasn't reached a quarter final in a major in over 2 years and hasn't gotten out of the second round in the 3 majors this year. It would take a miraculous effort, a performance like she has not had in several years to beat a legit top 5-6 player who is in the absolute prime of her career.

Give me Kerber all day, as people are underestimating the extent to which her game has transformed the past year+ and perhaps overvaluing Williams past accomplishments and early matches against grossly inferior competitors. I hear the rythmic beats of money counters click click click, warming up to count my Kerber loot.

[MeatWad]

Good point, her health has always been an issue lately, especially as the tournaments progress playing both singles and doubles. Realistically she should and probably is more focused on doubles, which she won in the last Olympics as well as in 2000.

[Balco10]

VW is washed up!

[MeatWad]

VW is washed up!

And the 24 yo Kerber is peaking like no other player on the tour the past 1-2 years, all WTA players recognize this fact. She is at the apex of her career, in her past 4 Slams, she has 2 semis and 1 QF. She is a persistent nagging player who won't go away, consistently making Venus work, grinding out a win.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I'm with you, meatwad..Kerber has improved leaps and bounds the past 2 years, as you noted...

[daimoshokage]

Venus has great value!

[MeatWad]

Venus has great value!

Maybe to play tough and keep it as close as possible. Kerber wins this 9 out of 10 times with alot of close matches. Fun seeing matches like this with +10% of value, after grinding out such small margins in baseball daily.
,

[mdfizzle]

First set should have had a different result, this was by no means a lock. But nice win!

[ACoochy]

Solid call and reasoning here Wadder...

[jjgold]

kid nailed it

great call

[Chi_archie]

Lesbians?

[MeatWad]

Lesbians?

Tonight's match was what I expected when I wrote this up 3.5 weeks ago. The 2 setter Kerber won last time was as close as Venus can get to a player of Kerber's quality.

I was soo happy when these 2 were aligned to meet again in the 2nd round.....another shot at EZ money.

If they lezzed out, I would just go with it!

[EmpireMaker]

[MeatWad]

Had to post and gloat just to make sure Venus held serve then broke serve. She literally turned the game around right when I posted, maybe there is something to the jinx? Can't really see Venus pulling this out, but miracles do happen.

[k13]

Everyone jinxing too early and watch Venus come back....

[plankton43]

Please hold here, Angelique.

EDIT: God damnit.

[MeatWad]

[QUOTE=plankton43;15840800]Please hold here, Angelique.[/

Damn breaks and holds are almost meaningless tonight, soo many for both players. If it goes to a third, instead of hedging on Venus, I may pound Kerber hard. Venus exerting alot of energy, looking tired trying to make this 2nd set respectable.

[plankton43]

Well in WTA, breaks can be holds, END THIS NOW, KERB!!!

[plankton43]

Please hold here, Angelique.[/Damn breaks and holds are almost meaningless tonight, soo many for both players. If it goes to a third, instead of hedging on Venus, I may pound Kerber hard. Venus exerting alot of energy, looking tired trying to make this 2nd set respectable.

Damn breaks and holds are almost meaningless tonight, soo many for both players. If it goes to a third, instead of hedging on Venus, I may pound Kerber hard. Venus exerting alot of energy, looking tired trying to make this 2nd set respectable.

Very good point, really hoping Kerb can end now this now.

[MeatWad]

Damn a more brutal sweat than their last match. I hope Kerber stays mentally focused and tough. I am not going to live bet it though, but I hope Venus just played her set of the match before fading.

[MeatWad]

Kerber is a grinder though, 18-2 in 3 setters!

[Seto]

i took her for 3rd set, i think venus will eventually fold. need some solid serving from kerber here

[Pinocchio]

18-3 is a bit too good for the circus called WTA, meaning 18-4 is near...

[Seto]

venus' 1st serve is fading miserably. come on angie!

[Seto]

no clutch shots from kerber here. starting to get worried, she won't serve to love every time.

[MeatWad]

Hopefully the 3rd set plays out like the first 5 games. Venus fights and struggles to hold, Kerber zips through her serve games 1-love. At this exact rate, Kerber wins the third set 7-3 in a tiebreak. Hopefully it won't go that far.

[Seto]

Hopefully the 3rd set plays out like the first 5 games. Venus fights and struggles to hold, Kerber zips through her serve games games-love. At this exact rate, Kerber wins the third set 7-3 in a tiebreak. Hopefully it won't go that far.

yes but venus is coming up with all the clutch shots. kerber will have at least 2 tough service games (one right now lol) in this set and will have to make some shots and i'm not seeing any positive signs from her here.

[Seto]

time for the kid to step up now. break or go home

[jimmy007oc]

here come a break for Venus. wait, she did break . FML....

[Seto]

awful, awful set. when was the last time she even hit a winner that wasn't at 30-0 or 40-0?

[Seto]

good stuff there kerber. why do players start going for their shots only when they have their backs against the wall? always annoys me

[jimmy007oc]

C'on Kerber, I love you lol )

[Seto]

finally showing some guts. anyone's game really now though