major TRAP line in Toronto today.

[zoo youk]

A's are the hottest team in baseball, sending Tommy Milone to the mound who just had a shutout 10k performance against the Yankees, going against an injury riddled Blue Jays team. Yet the Jays are -115 favorites. if there ever was a trap line this is it.

and its solely based on this.


Away from Oakland Colissuem, Milone owns an ERA of 5.69, a full 2 points higher than his natural ERA, has giving up a gut wrenching 80 hits in just 61 innings pitched, while serving up 45 earned runs and a staggering 17 home runs. This is truely the type of pitcher Milone really is. This guy owns a fastball who sits at 85 and a change up at 79-80mph and that is ALL he possesses. He benefits greatly from relying on hitting the corners, pitching to contact and pitching a huge, spacious Oakland ballpark. Yet you see the results when he is not pitching at home to have that ballpark benefit him. He becomes a very below average pitcher.

[onacloud]

So pound the Jays ???

[thirtytwo]

cant go against 7-game winning streak, in baseball you either ride streaks or stay away

cant bet on SP with home/road splits like that either


so oakland TT over or game over might be the way to look...

[bballs84]

Pretty sure oodds makers know that Milone
awful on road.. Doesn't matter Jays without JP and Bautista.. Oakland mashing the long ball like days of old.. Everything that comes off Cespedes bat is a rocket.. Fun stat A's are 41-24 with him in the line up this year and he has 50 RBIS in 65 games that he has played.. Guy is showing why he is worth the money.. They could very well lose today as all streaks come to an end but when looking at this one there is only one side to play.. BOL on whatever you decode zoo

[secueritae]

Good point, and might I add, Laffey has pitched well last 3 games for the Jays and has only once given up more than 3 earned runs in his 5 starts.

[ridims]

jays were favoured last night.

you saw the result.

i wouldn't touch the jays atm - especially going against a lefty. there BP is in shambles so you are expecting Laffey to go atleast 7 but you saw what happened when the jays threw a lefty at the A's last night.

A's or pass. Jays can't be trusted and the books are only favouring them because they anticipate the jays from avoiding a sweep. I wouldn't bet against a hot team who are seeing the ball like the size of a beach ball.

G'luck either way.

[EXhoosier10]

cant go against 7-game winning streak, in baseball you either ride streaks or stay away

ROI betting on and against Away teams (from killersports):
current streak of 1L: -3.6% on : -0.9% against
1W: -2.0% : -2.3%
2W: -3.2% : -1.2%
3W: -4.0% : -0.4%
4W: -4.0% : -0.5%
5W: -4.7% : +0.0%
6W: -6.2% : +1.3%
7W: -8.8% : +3.8%

you're wrong on this assumption

cant bet on SP with home/road splits like that either

Why wouldn't you bet on this type of pitcher while at home and against on the road? If you use his season ERA while he's on the road, he'll be grossly overvalued and therefore easily faded on the road, and at home, undervalued, and therefore easily betable.

so oakland TT over or game over might be the way to look...

He wants to fade Milone... Why would his bet be on oakland TTo? Toronto TTo is the way to look using zoo's angle

[trytrytry]

very interesting thread here...thanks

[ridims]

who is the ump calling balls and strikes today?

[EXhoosier10]

who is the ump calling balls and strikes today?

Victor Carapazza... slight under lean, which is good for Milone, but Laffey is pretty much a nibbler as well with his 86mph fastball, so umpire edge is pretty even

[ronzer]

When something looks to good to be true it normally is.

[pinnerpsk]

A's are due for some major regression. Just not sure when

[ridims]

anyone buying into the drop in the O/U from 9 to 8.5?

[zoo youk]

jays were favoured last night.

you saw the result.

i wouldn't touch the jays atm - especially going against a lefty. there BP is in shambles so you are expecting Laffey to go atleast 7 but you saw what happened when the jays threw a lefty at the A's last night.

A's or pass. Jays can't be trusted and the books are only favouring them because they anticipate the jays from avoiding a sweep. I wouldn't bet against a hot team who are seeing the ball like the size of a beach ball.

G'luck either way.

that is what factored even more into my decision. the Jays are crushing LHP over their last 5 games. hitting .270 as a team, .367 OBP while averging close to 5 runs per 9.

[Vinnie Paz]

Check out jays lineup this afternoon.

http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

[ridims]

i don't know. the jays threw a couple of leftys at oakland and got murdered both times. the jays have to make sure laffey goes at least 6 / 7 innings because there BP is a disaster. oakland is more reliable in that department.

you can expect some extra motivation from the jays to avoid getting swept at home but i have a feeling these guys realize that they are slowly not in the playoff race anymore. injuries has plagued this team and now they lost a hot bat in arencibia last night.

if laffey can't go the distance you can forget about the jays from having any possible shot unless they score a bunch of runs and you can't rely on that either. milone is not as bad of a pitcher you are all making him out to be.

[ridims]

Check out jays lineup this afternoon.

http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

colby rasmus can't hit a hot air balloon .. forget about a beach ball.

snider just missed a hr last night but he should give them some pop today. looking at that lineup i don't see anyone other then a couple players that can do a lot of damage. or am i wrong?

[Vinnie Paz]

Yea you right
The 2-4 spots can get nasty after that its a write-off

[ridims]

that is what factored even more into my decision. the Jays are crushing LHP over their last 5 games. hitting .270 as a team, .367 OBP while averging close to 5 runs per 9.

well. that stat is partially skewed because the jays hung 11 ER on lester in there. and .. well. we all know how bad lester is throwing right now.

[Darkside Magick]

Always ride streaks.....take the a's

[ridims]

Always ride streaks.....take the a's

watching the game last night i saw some serious defeat in the jays. they are wounded bad mentally. no escobar today either.

[Vinnie Paz]

Jays are -103 as well by the way..?
Oakland dropped about 9c overnight too

[ridims]

hey when your backup catcher is throwing pitches at the end of the game.. not once, but twice?

you gotta say to yourself.. "really?"

[ridims]

Jays are -103 as well by the way..?
Oakland dropped about 9c overnight too

hmm what book is this? where you seeing this.

i got oakland at -120 at my book and showing 69% bets on Oakland ML with them opening at +110. Jays at +100 now.

[zoo youk]

Brock is on Oakland. seal it up.

[Darkside Magick]

129216447-1 7/26/12 11:03am $5530 $5270 Pending 7/26/12 12:35pm MLB Baseball 911 Oakland Athletics -105* vs Toronto Blue Jays (T Milone - L must Start A Laffey - L must Start)

[ridims]

Brock is on Oakland. seal it up.

FUQ SAKES. really?

Hmm... shit

[R.P. McMurphy]

Brock was on Oakland last night as well. This Oakland team defies all conventional thinking right now. And the Jays certainly don't show me anything. A's or bust in this one.

[Darkside Magick]

Brock was on Oakland last night as well. This Oakland team defies all conventional thinking right now. And the Jays certainly don't show me anything. A's or bust in this one.

Glad you said that...was on a's yesterday also....the best capping is your gut...if you think about ..you going to be wrong..gut say a's

[Vinnie Paz]

hmm what book is this? where you seeing this.

i got oakland at -120 at my book and showing 69% bets on Oakland ML with them opening at +110. Jays at +100 now.

Its at the greek. Got oakland +104 ladt night, woke up to -107.

[R.P. McMurphy]

When u have a team playing this inspired and hot i just cannot buy the "their due for a loss" or landers theory. There were probably a lot of suckers who started fading Oakland a decade ago when that bigh streak started around game 7 or so. But the ones who kept tailing got the last laugh!

[ridims]

sorry i have to hedge now that brock is on oakland. its mandatory. no matter what i just said, oakland will lose this game.

[i97g]

U n d e r

[thirtytwo]

any chance brandon lang is on A's too? we might have a monster play this afternoon!

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Brock is on Oakland. seal it up.

fyi he was on oakland yesterday also.