Exact World Series Results- *prices*

[Tsoprano]

Phillies in 4 +1200
Phillies in 5 +570
Phillies in 6 +450
Phillies in 7 +500
........................................
Rays in 4 +850
Rays in 5 +450
Rays in 6 +330
Rays in 7 +430

[Ganchrow]

Phillies in 4 +1200
Phillies in 5 +570
Phillies in 6 +450
Phillies in 7 +500
........................................
Rays in 4 +850
Rays in 5 +450
Rays in 6 +330
Rays in 7 +430

Be careful ... that's a not insubstantial 22.0% vig you'd be betting into with those lines.

I'll also note that if we take the current Pinnacle series price (PHI +132/TAM -142) to be an unbiased indicator of true series win probability, then the vig in the above exact series win result market is a bit higher on the Phillies (~25.0%) than on the Rays (~17.2%).

[Ganchrow]

By the way, if you can come up with stationary probability estimates for either team winning each game (although for what it's worth, stationarity is almost certainly not a strictly valid assumption) then you can use my Series Win Probability Calculator for Excel to determine exact World Series results probabilities and fair prices.

[Tsoprano]

Betting Rays in 4, 5, and 6 makes a guaranteed profit, and I dont see them losing the series. (or it going to a game 7)

[Ganchrow]

Betting Rays in 4, 5, and 6 makes a guaranteed profit, and I dont see them losing the series. (or it going to a game 7)

If you believe there to be a zero probability of the series going to 7, then taking the Rays to win in 4, 5, & 6 games (securing an equivalent reyurn for each outcome) then you'd be effectively betting the Rays series ML at -108.2. That's a fantastic line compared to the Pinnacle line of -132 (although as stated it hinges on the a priori assumption that the series won't go to 7).

If you further believe the Phillies win probability to be zero, then this would correspond to a monstrous edge of 92.44%.

Personally, however, I'm ever-so-slightly skeptical.

[Tsoprano]

Yea Ganch, I truly do not see Phillies taking the title at all. Maybe im wrong, but I feel really strong about that factor.

[donjuan]

Yea Ganch, I truly do not see Phillies taking the title at all. Maybe im wrong, but I feel really strong about that factor.

Ganchrow is far too nice. You're as clueless as whatever idiot at Bodog put up +390 for the series to go 7 games.

[betplom]

Ganchrow is far too nice. You're as clueless as whatever idiot at Bodog put up +390 for the series to go 7 games.

There really was no need for such a rude and ignorant response.

DonnyJu, don't misinterpret this as me "begging for winners" I'm simply pointing out a very annoying flaw in your personality. I doubt you can even comprehend this.

You may be good with numbers/statistics but your as charming as a steaming pile of dog shit

[treece]

Look at the big brain on Ganch.

[wtt0315]

wow i see phillies sweeping but they will lose game three with moyer pitching. tampa could pitch phil neikro against them and win there. but i think i will go huge on philly in 4 and 5

[jjgold]

Rays in 6

[Bread]

Rays in seven.

And to beat DonnyJuanny to the punch, yes, I'm an idiot.

[CaneDawg]

rays in 6

[donjuan]

There really was no need for such a rude and ignorant response.

Why? It was a dumb-as-a-doorknob statement.

DonnyJu, don't misinterpret this as me "begging for winners"

It was "begging for +EV info", not "begging for winners". Clearly your lack of understanding of gambling is matched by your lack of memory.

I'm simply pointing out a very annoying flaw in your personality. I doubt you can even comprehend this.

This is a sports betting forum, not a Dr. Phil forum. Did I hurt your feelings? Go run and tell Mommy.

You may be good with numbers/statistics but your [sic] as charming as a steaming pile of dog

I'm really not that great with numbers and statistics; I just happen to have a basic understanding that isn't comparable to that of a salmon. Here's a hint: if you are trying to insult someone, it works better when you don't embarrass yourself with 3rd grade grammatical errors.

[wtt0315]

ok so consider this will be a pretty even price series through out and if i really think the phillies will win in 4 should i just take my money and put it all in each game?
+1200 = 1200 dollar win if they do it in 4 on a 100 dollar bet
100 dollar bet even money for 4 games = 1600 am i doing correct math here?

[donjuan]

That would be assuming the Phillies will be +100 for each game. You'll probably get better than that for games other than Game 1.

[smitch124]

Ganchrow is far too nice. You're as clueless as whatever idiot at Bodog put up +390 for the series to go 7 games.

I'm showing +225 now. Did it really come down that much?

[donjuan]

I'm showing +225 now. Did it really come down that much?

I meant to say 380, but yes. Unfortunately it was only a $100 max.

[Crayzee]

rays in 5

[Tsoprano]

I dont see this going to a game 7.

[MickChunky]

Phillies in 6 +600 BookMaker

[donjuan]

I dont see this going to a game 7.

I fail to see what this is supposed to mean. Does this mean there is a 0% chance of there being a 7th game? Does it mean it's likely that it won't go to a 7th game?

[durito]

i see this series only going 3 games

[smitch124]

Bread played the David Price will get exactly 5 saves prop.

[Tsoprano]

I fail to see what this is supposed to mean. Does this mean there is a 0% chance of there being a 7th game? Does it mean it's likely that it won't go to a 7th game?

What? It means I don't think it will go 7 games.

[donjuan]

What? It means I don't think it will go 7 games.

So how often (expressed as a percentage) do you think this series goes to 7 games?

[dwaechte]

So how often (expressed as a percentage) do you think this series goes to 7 games?

I hope you're aiming to actually be constructive with that question.

[donjuan]

I hope you're aiming to actually be constructive with that question.

It depends on the answer. If it's some variant of a vacuous statement like "I just don't think it will go 7 games" then it's kind of hard to be constructive.