We have a sharp group playing Beat The Prick this year

[Mudcat]

I was getting a vibe that the overall results were freakishly good, so I just did a check and here is my conclusion:

The overall results are freakishly good.

In something like this, I always expect the group to basically have coin-flip results but that is not the case this year so far. The competition has been impressively strong.

According to my calculations:

Overall record of everyone:

2080 - 1920

So that is +160 games over .500. And using the weighted scoring where the Best Bet counts double, the group as a whole is:

+231




Obviously that is not an in-depth analysis. Juice is not factored in. But still, what's up with that? That's pretty fekkin good.

[Willie Bee]

Certainly has seemed like we've had more 4-0 records each week, that's for sure. Another certainty is I'm done using frickin' NFL games in my weekly picks.

[Mudcat]

So the big question is, is it in fact that sharp a group or does the law of averages dictate we are due for some bottom-heavy weeks with a lot less plus numbers - and more money going to the top finishers.

My experience tells me the latter but I have been expecting the group to go in the crapper for quite awhile and, other than one week in there, it doesn't happen.

[Boner_18]

As I don't consider myself much more than a little over 50/50 capper I'm inclined to say the latter... However, maybe the 15 weeks of football isn't a big enough sample to require the group to "come back" to 50/50..

[sofun]

We need it Mudcat, keep find out and give us some good feedback

[pats3peat]

Certainly has seemed like we've had more 4-0 records each week, that's for sure. Another certainty is I'm done using frickin' NFL games in my weekly picks.

yeah

[pats3peat]

So the big question is, is it in fact that sharp a group or does the law of averages dictate we are due for some bottom-heavy weeks with a lot less plus numbers - and more money going to the top finishers.

My experience tells me the latter but I have been expecting the group to go in the crapper for quite awhile and, other than one week in there, it doesn't happen.

something fishy is definitely going on with this nfl season. Can a whole year be a statistical anomaly? I believe so.

[rm18]

53% picking Tuesday numbers on Friday is about what you would expect

[Doug]

53% picking Tuesday numbers on Friday is about what you would expect

lines change this year;

Overall record of everyone:

2080 - 1920

doesn't beat the vig at -110.

[sharktank1]

Peaks and Valleys !

Here's my last 4 weeks results, here @ BTP:

Week # 4:..0-4
Week # 5...4-0
Week # 6...0-4
Week # 7...4-0

Go figure!
GL guys.

[Mudcat]

lines change this year;

Overall record of everyone:

2080 - 1920

doesn't beat the vig at -110.

Gawd I hope we don't still have people paying -110 around here. I hope this forum is sharper than that. I see Matchbook was voted #1 in the poll so I have to think we are.

Making a more realistic assumption about juice and also factoring in the weighted best bets, the forum is definitely making money.

And that's if you count every pick - even the ones from people playing anti-consensus - which is usually a very intelligent strategy in this sort of pool - although obviously not this year so far.

(But I don't know how many people can even do that with the current rules.)



Anyway I stand by my original comment. Sharp group.

[McBa1n]

I'd say if you beat the vig EXCLUSIVELY betting the NFL - you're one sharp mofo. I can get just over .500 (46-40 ATS and 43-41-4 in totals)... I'd love to be an apprentice to someone with experience in some other sport - the NFL is really hard to beat... I doubt anyone in the top 25 for BTP only bets the NFL. I got close, but died the last 2 weeks. Losing your BB is brutal...

[Mudcat]

I have seen comments like this many times that you need to be ultra sharp to beat the NFL. I just don't get it. I find it to be the easiest sport to beat. Lines are a function of who is betting them and no sport attracts more squares than the NFL. Squarer lines = more gifts.

Seems obvious to me. I just wish there were more games. They need a 162 game schedule like baseball!!

But speaking for myself, no, I don't only bet NFL. Not by a longshot.

[laxdjock]

I know my season was ROUGH in the beginning, but now crawling back into it. I've never been more than maybe 60% in the NFL, and that is on a good day. Lesser games in CFB is where I like to bet.

[alexda[]]

didnt tomcast hit a ridiculous number last yr betting only nfl?

[McBa1n]

Fair point, Mudcat - there are always a few lines every week worth pounding (dogs obviously). Heck even some chalk MLs are very tasty (anyone pound Pitt over Cinci on the ML last week?) Human nature is the only thing that makes the NFL so hard - especially in a contest setting where you have to play 4 games. It's not as much about value than it is about getting it right - and having experience in college football gives you a whole slew of other opportunities. I have no experience in betting the college game, just 'picking' games... I don't mean to say aww poor me - I just don't see how you can stay in the NFL and win in this setting when there are so many more opportunities in the college game.

Either way, it's a great contest and good fun - and cool to see people getting paid off pretty much every week (thanks, Prick!)

[Mudcat]

didnt tomcast hit a ridiculous number last yr betting only nfl?

I can tell you what happened there. For about 4 weeks he was basically just flipping a coin and, just by pure luck, he got off to an incredible start. I don't even know if that was NFL or college or both.

Then he came to me asking for picks. I was out of commission and not posting on the forum but I am always aware of the NFL so I said okay, I would do my best.

There were a few times I couldn't come up with 4 strong NFL sides and I went to other members of my little group to fill in the blanks. The one guy is more focused on college and a handful of those picks got into the mix as I recall. But 90% NFL.

Anyway it was a ridiculous season for the whole group. It was a dream year. Some weeks we had 6 sides besides the BTP plays - they were hitting. Our totals were hitting. It was nuts.

Tom is a great guy whose whole life is about doing charitable work - so contributing to that was a great little side effect.

[Checkerboard]

Certainly has seemed like we've had more 4-0 records each week, that's for sure. Another certainty is I'm done using frickin' NFL games in my weekly picks.

lol, i'm with you on that count wb.

[alexda[]]

I can tell you what happened there. For about 4 weeks he was basically just flipping a coin and, just by pure luck, he got off to an incredible start. I don't even know if that was NFL or college or both.

Then he came to me asking for picks. I was out of commission and not posting on the forum but I am always aware of the NFL so I said okay, I would do my best.

There were a few times I couldn't come up with 4 strong NFL sides and I went to other members of my little group to fill in the blanks. The one guy is more focused on college and a handful of those picks got into the mix as I recall. But 90% NFL.

Anyway it was a ridiculous season for the whole group. It was a dream year. Some weeks we had 6 sides besides the BTP plays - they were hitting. Our totals were hitting. It was nuts.

Tom is a great guy whose whole life is about doing charitable work - so contributing to that was a great little side effect.

u and ur group should post ur plays

[Mudcat]

We do. At sportsbooks with money behind them.