Math problem: Odds of Palin as next-next president?

[Justin7]

Make these assumptions:
1. McCain/Palin win the election; and
2. McCain/Palin will win the next election.

what are the odds that Palin will be president before the 2016 election?

[MonkeyF0cker]

2:1

[ICE-BLOOD]

good chance
us president due to get hit
also mccain is up there in years
lots of possibilities for mccain being unable to complete 8 yrs

[FadeThePublic]

Forget the odds

If Palin were to be president we would all be dead

the world would end

[danrman]

Forget the odds

If Palin were to be president we would all be dead

the world would end

i can see you are real impartial w/ that hussein picture as you avitar

[Justin7]

I was hoping someone would take a serious mathematical approach to this before deciding we're all dead.

[tacomax]

If he's +500 that's a 1/6 probability of winning the 2008 election.

Then let's say he's an adequate president and is a coin-flip for the 2012 election so 1/2 probability of him winning that.

On some possibly dodgy website, it notes that the probability of dying at 72 is 0.022346 going up to 0.047769 when 80. A rough probability of not dying in each of the following 8 years and making it to 2016 is about 0.74. The odds of dying may be heightened by the added stress but are assumed to be canceled out by an improved level of healthcare.

So the actual probability is 1/6 * 1/2 * 0.74 - about a 1 in 16 chance.

That's about as serious a mathematical approach as you're going to get at this time of night.

EDIT 1 - I looked at the death probabilities for females instead of males so there's a 0.64 probability of him living so 1/6 * 1/2 * 0.64 is - nearly a 1 in 19 chance.

EDIT 2 - and I guess adding in the probability that Palin is still alive too so 1/6 * 1/2 * 0.64 * 0.97 - about a 1 in 19 chance.

I'm going to bed.

[skrtelfan]

Make these assumptions:
1. McCain/Palin win the election; and
2. McCain/Palin will win the next election.

what are the odds that Palin will be president before the 2016 election?

Those assumptions remove the possibility of McCain dying/resigning before the 2012 election, so the only question is the possibility that he dies/resigns between the 2012 election and the 2016 election. My best guess is perhaps a 22% chance of a man of his age dying in that 4 year period and maybe a 3% chance of resigning, so 25%? Maybe throw in a percent or two for the chance of an assassination. Since he won't release medical records these are really just guesses, but Palin +300 is probably not too far off, given these assumptions.

[skrtelfan]

I forgot about the 1% or so chance of Palin dying between 2012 and 2016, plus a small chance of her resigning or being assassinated, so that probably negates the percent or two chance of a McCain assassination, so 25%/Palin +300 is probably right.

[BestPlay2day]

I would guess around +400 odds. Assume McCain wins in 2012, I saw somewhere that McCain would survive 2 Presidental terms at 74% on an actuary chart.

However, the odds that McCain wins this year is very slim so my guess is Palin goes back to Alaska to be governor and we hopefully never hear from her again.

[ms61853]

Forget the odds

If Palin were to be president we would all be dead

the world would end

Joe Biden says we're screwed if Obama is elected:

"Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."

"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. "And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you - not financially to help him - we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

[Mudcat]

Sarah Palin is no longer new on the scene. After an initial honeymoon, she has clearly exposed herself as being unqualified and unintelligent and toxic. I would like to think people took notice of that and she will just retreat back to Alaska and stay there.

However we are talking about a country that elected Dubya to a second term. So I have to think it's possible.

But anything like that has to be considered a long shot. I'll say:

+2500.

[hoopster42]

Sarah Palin is no longer new on the scene. After an initial honeymoon, she has clearly exposed herself as being unqualified and unintelligent and toxic. I would like to think people took notice of that and she will just retreat back to Alaska and stay there.

However we are talking about a country that elected Dubya to a second term. So I have to think it's possible.

But anything like that has to be considered a long shot. I'll say:

+2500.

1

[ms61853]

Sarah Palin is no longer new on the scene. After an initial honeymoon, she has clearly exposed herself as being unqualified and unintelligent and toxic. I would like to think people took notice of that and she will just retreat back to Alaska and stay there.

However we are talking about a country that elected Dubya to a second term. So I have to think it's possible.

But anything like that has to be considered a long shot. I'll say:

+2500.

As if Palin is stupid enough to make a remark like this:

"Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."

"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. "And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you - not financially to help him - we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."

What if she had? We'll let Dan Rather tell you (his quote):

"certainly if Sarah Palin had said this, it would be above the fold in most newspapers today."

[donjuan]

Sarah Palin is no longer new on the scene. After an initial honeymoon, she has clearly exposed herself as being unqualified and unintelligent and toxic. I would like to think people took notice of that and she will just retreat back to Alaska and stay there.

However we are talking about a country that elected Dubya to a second term. So I have to think it's possible.

But anything like that has to be considered a long shot. I'll say:

+2500.

You're ignoring the question. It's basically the odds that McCain will die, become seriously ill, be assassinated or be impeached during the next 8 years based on the assumption that he wins both elections and has her on the ticket both times. I have a question for Justin, though. Do you mean president at any point or actually be sworn in as a "permanent" president? After all, Cheney was technically president for a few hours while Bush had an operation.

[Justin7]

Donjuan -

You're right on. Basically, what are the odds that in 8 years, McCain permanently leaves office due to death or health.

[Mudcat]

You're ignoring the question. It's basically the odds that McCain will die, become seriously ill, be assassinated or be impeached during the next 8 years based on the assumption that he wins both elections and has her on the ticket both times. I have a question for Justin, though. Do you mean president at any point or actually be sworn in as a "permanent" president? After all, Cheney was technically president for a few hours while Bush had an operation.

By gawd you're right. My mind immediately jumped to all kinds of assumptions and I answered the wrong question.

Humble apologies.

So I'll go with +500.

[skrtelfan]

Donjuan -

You're right on. Basically, what are the odds that in 8 years, McCain permanently leaves office due to death or health.

The way you phrased it, it's only the odds in the second 4 years, since you assumed he would be reelected, and he couldn't be reelected to a 2nd term if he left office in the first due to death or health.

[skrtelfan]

I would guess around +400 odds. Assume McCain wins in 2012, I saw somewhere that McCain would survive 2 Presidental terms at 74% on an actuary chart.

74% is closer to the chance of surviving 1 term than 2. Someone of his age has an average life expectancy of 12 years or so, so the chance of dying in 8 is higher than 26%, although McCain's health is probably somewhat better than average as he's still mobile enough to travel regularly etc.

[losturmarbles]

Sarah Palin is no longer new on the scene. After an initial honeymoon, she has clearly exposed herself as being unqualified and unintelligent and toxic. I would like to think people took notice of that and she will just retreat back to Alaska and stay there.

However we are talking about a country that elected Dubya to a second term. So I have to think it's possible.

But anything like that has to be considered a long shot. I'll say:

+2500.

really? is that a requirement to be president?? you have to be qualified and intelligent??? really??

i'm pretty sure you only have to be a mouth piece for your party, and be popular (ie popular vote)