Is MLB one of the most unpredictable games?

i97g · 07-10-12, 05:04 PM

all about MLS totals

probettor1 · 07-10-12, 07:18 PM

I dont think baseball is unpredictable, I think it is one of the most unpredictable. If it was completely unpredictable you could bet the dog and make easy money. But this is not the case. I have the database of over 15 years and I can see that you would lose betting the dog and betting the fav. So in the long run it is predictable, the line makers knows how to predict MLB but in the lung run.
This is my point an amateur player could hit better that albert pujols any given day but it would be very difficult to beat lebron in a one to one game if the oponent is an amateur, or to have an amateur beating Jon Jones or floyd mayweather. Not even the proffesionals can do it.
Mayweather has like 42 wins is a row, that is an example of a predictable sport. and there are a bunch of fighers with more than 20 wins in a row. You dont see too many pitchers/teams in mlb winning 20 games in a row.
My problem is that I dont want to bet in the long run, I do chase/ride games/athletes where I'm super confident. To the point where I would bet 1 or 2 games per month. And MLB is not the sports where you can be superconfident in one game.

thebestthereis · 07-10-12, 07:22 PM

Ask the sportsbooks, they don't want to even take MLB action cause they don't win. Baseball is the easiest sport to beat, it's not my opinion it's a fact. Sharp bettors clean house. Good luck!

probettor1 · 07-10-12, 07:37 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

Ask the sportsbooks, they don't want to even take MLB action cause they don't win. Baseball is the easiest sport to beat, it's not my opinion it's a fact. Sharp bettors clean house. Good luck!

I dont know a local who doesnt take mlb, many dont take nhl nor mma. The only think my bookie wont take is nhl over and unders

probettor1 · 07-10-12, 08:17 PM

go to any handicapping website and compare ncaaf and nfl with mlb and you will see the difference, especially ncaaf could have twice the roi of mlb.

2daBank · 07-10-12, 08:32 PM

Originally posted by probettor1

I dont think baseball is unpredictable, I think it is one of the most unpredictable. If it was completely unpredictable you could bet the dog and make easy money. But this is not the case. I have the database of over 15 years and I can see that you would lose betting the dog and betting the fav. So in the long run it is predictable, the line makers knows how to predict MLB but in the lung run.
This is my point an amateur player could hit better that albert pujols any given day but it would be very difficult to beat lebron in a one to one game if the oponent is an amateur, or to have an amateur beating Jon Jones or floyd mayweather. Not even the proffesionals can do it.
Mayweather has like 42 wins is a row, that is an example of a predictable sport. and there are a bunch of fighers with more than 20 wins in a row. You dont see too many pitchers/teams in mlb winning 20 games in a row.
My problem is that I dont want to bet in the long run, I do chase/ride games/athletes where I'm super confident. To the point where I would bet 1 or 2 games per month. And MLB is not the sports where you can be superconfident in one game.

honestly what you are saying is true of every team sport... NBA in regular season good luck being "super confident" as who the fukk knows who going to show up any given night, nfl? yea right between the pathetic rule changes, stupid ass refs, and overall steps the league takes to have "parity" no way yo can be "super confident" on a reg season gm there either..personally college hoops always been my best sport but it is not because of the predictability of one gm but the numerous opportunities every night to bet long term winners....just dont think in the reg season of any team sport you can get what you talking about like you can with a guy like money Mayweather, Federer in his prime, tiger when he was killing everyone, ect ect ect....team sport especially in reg season just dont offer that very often if ever..i mean i guess if you talking huge chalk you could be "super confident" with lots of ncaa fb and hoops but that some huge odds yo have to lay..

probettor1 · 07-10-12, 08:41 PM

In NHL the goalie play the entire game most of the time, in mlb you dont even know how many inning will pitch each pitcher. In football the QB also play the entire game most of the time. This might be anothe issue with baseball.

JMUplayer · 07-10-12, 08:43 PM

MLB takes 50% of my winnings in football and basketball every year

GunShard · 07-10-12, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by k13

NHL/MLB are both the same, there's a reason why you don't see any -500 ml's in any of the games.

Exactly what I was thinking. Hockey and Baseball has more luck than skill compared to Basketball, Football, MMA and Boxing.

probettor1 · 07-10-12, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

Exactly what I was thinking. Hockey and Baseball has more luck than skill compared to Basketball, Football, MMA and Boxing.

In hockey the goalie is the same in the entire game and you dont see a team scoring 20 points ever. You also have a lot of value with the over and under line been the almost same most of the time.

Inkwell77 · 07-10-12, 11:30 PM

Originally posted by thebestthereis

Ask the sportsbooks, they don't want to even take MLB action cause they don't win. Baseball is the easiest sport to beat, it's not my opinion it's a fact. Sharp bettors clean house. Good luck!

lol

you know this isn't true. Look at Cantor as an example

agharah1 · 07-11-12, 12:00 AM

Most people cannot approach things with an investor's mind. One thing I'm always hearing traders say is to "cut your losses short but let your profits run." That's extremely counter-intuitive. Most people will close their winning trades quickly to lock in a profit, but they'll let their losing trades go forever hoping the market comes back.

Its the same in sports betting. People will go from sport to sport thinking "this is the one!" And then they lose because they didn't understand it nearly as much as they thought they did. Last year the Ravens lost to the Titans, Seahawks, and Jaguars. The Packers only regular season loss was to the Chiefs. In the NBA players give inconsistent effort (Shaq's "mid-season vacations" come to mind.) I saw the Cavs beat the Celtics last year when the Celtics were like -2000 favs. In hockey, a bad team could have their goalie catch fire. In baseball, even the best players of all time couldn't get a hit more than 35% of the time. In Soccer, bad teams will stack the box and play for the tie.

People think the NFL is easy to cap but its also the sport the books make the most money on by far. Personally I like college football, but even that's not a guarantee. Last year UAB was atrocious and somehow they beat a Central Florida team that was a 14pt fav. Every year you hear of at least 1 "Upset Saturday" and god help the poor soul who bet their 401k on Michigan ML vs. App. St. in '07 (I still can't believe 5Dimes has I-A vs. I-AA moneylines). If crazy stuff didn't happen, what would SportsCenter put in their Top 10 and drunken college kids wouldn't be tearing up goalposts.

Men's and Women's college basketball is nice because there are so many games and there's usually a severe talent disparity. But I once blew my account on Syracuse -750 at home vs. Seton Hall. The Hall was the worst 3pt shooting team in the Big East and suddenly they come alive, torch the Cuse zone on the road no less, and win like 90-72.

The key is to look for value. If you know a team has a shot to win at +EV then take it. If you think laying -170 on Drew Smyly of the Tigers on a night where Jim Leyland stupidly puts both Ramon Santiago and Ryan Rayburn (two sub-.200 hitters) in the lineup, don't take it, even against a terrible team.

probettor1 · 07-11-12, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by agharah1

Most people cannot approach things with an investor's mind. One thing I'm always hearing traders say is to "cut your losses short but let your profits run." That's extremely counter-intuitive. Most people will close their winning trades quickly to lock in a profit, but they'll let their losing trades go forever hoping the market comes back.

Its the same in sports betting. People will go from sport to sport thinking "this is the one!" And then they lose because they didn't understand it nearly as much as they thought they did. Last year the Ravens lost to the Titans, Seahawks, and Jaguars. The Packers only regular season loss was to the Chiefs. In the NBA players give inconsistent effort (Shaq's "mid-season vacations" come to mind.) I saw the Cavs beat the Celtics last year when the Celtics were like -2000 favs. In hockey, a bad team could have their goalie catch fire. In baseball, even the best players of all time couldn't get a hit more than 35% of the time. In Soccer, bad teams will stack the box and play for the tie.

People think the NFL is easy to cap but its also the sport the books make the most money on by far. Personally I like college football, but even that's not a guarantee. Last year UAB was atrocious and somehow they beat a Central Florida team that was a 14pt fav. Every year you hear of at least 1 "Upset Saturday" and god help the poor soul who bet their 401k on Michigan ML vs. App. St. in '07 (I still can't believe 5Dimes has I-A vs. I-AA moneylines). If crazy stuff didn't happen, what would SportsCenter put in their Top 10 and drunken college kids wouldn't be tearing up goalposts.

Men's and Women's college basketball is nice because there are so many games and there's usually a severe talent disparity. But I once blew my account on Syracuse -750 at home vs. Seton Hall. The Hall was the worst 3pt shooting team in the Big East and suddenly they come alive, torch the Cuse zone on the road no less, and win like 90-72.

The key is to look for value. If you know a team has a shot to win at +EV then take it. If you think laying -170 on Drew Smyly of the Tigers on a night where Jim Leyland stupidly puts both Ramon Santiago and Ryan Rayburn (two sub-.200 hitters) in the lineup, don't take it, even against a terrible team.

The key is to find value, I thought that the key was to fade the value.

FellatioReceiver · 07-11-12, 02:24 AM

MLB is a cash cow. Period.

face · 07-11-12, 06:02 AM

MLB, NHL, and tennis all day for me. Far less referee bullshit than football and basketball. Excessive celebration? WTF is that? Who cares? And NBA if you're famous you get an and one? If you're a regular player you get a charge instead of a foul and you never get an and one. Fuk that.

HoulihansTX · 07-11-12, 09:30 AM

Pick the winner. How hard is that?

GunShard · 07-11-12, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Pick the winner. How hard is that?

If you look at the power rankings of each sports. NFL compared to MLB.

If you blindly bet on the top 3 NFL teams and faded the bottom 3 NFL teams. Compared to blindly betting on the top 3 MLB teams and faded the bottom 3 MLB teams. You will pick more winners on the NFL than the MLB. More Skill than Luck in the NFL than MLB.