Crossing fingers on my horsie

[picantel]

2 minutes to post
Woodbine race 11
#1 Dreamfair Eternal
$50 W/P

rail. macdonell. no speed. hoping he is not last at half.

[ChuteBoxe]

Jumped in on it with ya.

[picantel]

hope you realize he is 11/1 lol and one of the longest shots on the board.

[CaneDawg]

get em

[picantel]

he is gonna lose. no excuse having the rail and settling in 9th. un ****ing real.

[picantel]

holy shit he looks awful. sorry about that. horrible drive

[ChuteBoxe]

hope you realize he is 11/1 lol and one of the longest shots on the board.

I threw away way more money than that, it's all good man.

[picantel]

retard alert. got 4th. wtf was that drive. shuffled to last. no room in stretch. still gets 4th. sigh

[ChuteBoxe]

Please don't tell me the 5 won.

[CaneDawg]

lol

[picantel]

no it was the 3. horse was in much easier but the driver is crap and I will never waste money on him.

[picantel]

I am not sure what is up with the drives on dreamfair. A couple months ago this horse was racing against the likes of hana hanover and vsoky tatry and racing well with early speed. Now he has the rail and lets himself get shuffled to dead last in a 10 horse field. never leaves the rail until the stretch and hand rides him down the stretch with barely any room and he still gets 4th.

[CaneDawg]

it happens

[picantel]

I feel like chasing so will hit Yonkers race #13
#2 Lady Juniper(8/1 ML).

The #1 is the fave coming off a couple good finishes and first overs but he had bouchard who is the best driver at yonkers bar none. Looks like the #1 was claimed and bouchard is now on Lady Juniper. Inside post this time unlike last race when the outside killed him. LJ can show speed or close and there is alot of speed in this race including white cheeks from the 8hole who has won the last 2 against a similar field. I will take the odds, best driver at yonkers, a closer with a ton of early speed, and finally an inside post. If he gets shuffled to last against and you hear screams that is just me.

[treece]

You can't beat the horses.

[picantel]

Lady Juniper is 4./1 now. They have the #3 bet down from 8/1 to 7/5 but manzi has turned into an awful driver the last year and I will let him beat me if he can.

[ChuteBoxe]

Jumped on that with ya too.

[picantel]

You can't beat the horses.

Sure you can and I do it all the time. I stay away from the faves and look for the value big longshots. Take Dreamfair for example. He ended up going off 12/1 which means I can lose 11 in a row pretty much and hit the 12th and still break even. I pick maybe 3-5 longies a week and all I need to do is hit 1 of them every couple weeks to make money. If you bet faves though you are gonna get buried real fast.

[picantel]

Jumped on that with ya too.

damn lol now I am gonna feel twice as bad if the horse loses.

[cobra_king]

Pic,

Though i agree with you that constantly betting favorites is a recipe for disaster, to out and out dismiss betting on any favorite is not optimal strategy. I'm not talking about the 3-5, 4-5's of the world, but to ignore a horse at say 8-5 JUST because he's 8-5 is not a good idea. I don't play alot of favorites. Out of my 50 bets a month, i might play 3 favorites in total, but sometimes you will find solid value in an overpriced favorite. If your 8-5 favorite wins half the time, you are able to increase your bankroll and your ability to stay in the game longer to take advantage of those 11-1 longshots that are out there.