I think the Mavs will win the next two: how do I max my return?

bigboydan · 06-17-06, 07:42 PM

i can see this one going 7 games myself.

Doug · 06-17-06, 08:03 PM

Bet individual games and re-bet stake and winnings on Dallas in game 6 if you think Dallas will be less than -250 fav.

Dallas at roughly +120 and -250 parlayed equals +205, or very close to it.

Utopia · 06-17-06, 08:12 PM

I agree with Doug.

No need to ask a Parlay to come through, when you can play each game.

SBR_John · 06-17-06, 08:13 PM

Thats pretty chalky. Maybe I should just double my bet on the first game where I can get the +120 and call it a day? Of course, I'll spot a little more if I'm wrong.

Utopia · 06-17-06, 08:26 PM

I wouldn't ask for the SU win, when you should be able to get +3 Sunday night.

Collecting +120, isn't worth the lack of points at only -110 pay-up

Doug · 06-17-06, 08:36 PM

I'd rather go half by half myself.

John: Were you unable to figure the game 6 line that would correlate to a game 5 line of +120 and a series price of +205 ?

Maybe some lessons from Granchow ( sp?) are in order. I respect the guy's math but blow his name all the time, I don't want to blow the post... Ganchrow ?

His name gives me problems, but he's a real solid math guy.

Doug · 06-17-06, 08:40 PM

That's it Ganchrow, I kinda Archie Bunkerize it to Grandchow.

Ganchrow · 06-18-06, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by Doug

I'd rather go half by half myself.

John: Were you unable to figure the game 6 line that would correlate to a game 5 line of +120 and a series price of +205 ?

Maybe some lessons from Granchow ( sp?) are in order. I respect the guy's math but blow his name all the time, I don't want to blow the post... Ganchrow ?

His name gives me problems, but he's a real solid math guy.

You got it eventually. It is ganchrow.

I fully concur with Doug on this one. Just as he points out, a +120 would need to be parlayed with about a -259 line to yield a +205. If you assume that given a Dallas game 5 win, you'd be able to get better than a -259 money line on game 6 then taking the +205 series price would be a bad idea.

Conversely if you think Dallas would be a larger favorite than -259 in game 6 given a win in game 5, then I'd suggest taking the prop.

Doug · 06-18-06, 03:36 AM

Grandchow: How come Johnny can't figure this out ?

Utopia · 06-18-06, 10:23 AM

Splitting a parlay loses One Unit.

Splitting two single plays loses one-tenth of that.

That's my reasoning for favoring single plays.

daringly · 06-18-06, 10:49 AM

Go with what Doug said.

If you play the "Mavs to win in 6 games" prop, you'll pay more juice (as he demonstrated). Bet the 5th game, then the sixth.

On a random note, this sounds like poor money management. If you think the line is off, it would be better to bet a fixed amount on each game.

BuddyBear · 06-18-06, 11:56 AM

Dallas in 7 IMO.....

SBR_John · 06-19-06, 01:05 PM

I've had better ideas.

h34r:

bigboydan · 06-19-06, 02:43 PM

it happens john.

onlooker · 06-19-06, 08:19 PM

Anyone know what the series price for Miami was when they were down 0-2. Or even the price for "Miami to win in six" when they were down 0-2?

I never noticed it since Im done with hoops until next season.

rolemand · 06-19-06, 08:22 PM

Dallas was about -490 to -500 on Pinnacle to win series.