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Have you ever seen a -110 turn into a -700 in less than 3 weeks?
Have you ever seen a -110 turn into a -700 in less than 3 weeks?
I placed a bet on Obama at -110 for $1500 three weeks ago with a local. Today he informed me that it is at -700 but I can hedge with McCain at +400 if needed.
Should I hedge some money with McCain at +400?
Thanks.
firedawg
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
10-08-08
39231
#2
no
Comment
onthewhat
Restricted User
05-14-08
15411
#3
why would you hedge when you are locked in at -110 when current line is -700 ?
Comment
pavyracer
SBR Aristocracy
04-12-07
83110
#4
Originally posted by onthewhat
why would you hedge when you are locked in at -110 when current line is -700 ?
I can bet for example an additional $500 on McCain +400. If Obama wins I win $1000 minus juice. If McCain wins I push.
Comment
CaneDawg
SBR Hall of Famer
08-25-08
6256
#5
no
Comment
SBR Lou
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
08-02-07
37863
#6
Do not hedge here...
Comment
LT Profits
SBR Aristocracy
10-27-06
90963
#7
I'd say no only because you already have the winner.
Comment
daggerkobe
SBR Posting Legend
03-25-08
10744
#8
I've seen odds fluctuate like that from week to week on American Idol.
But I haven't bet since Chris Daultry was robbed..... the only one to become a success from that season. Dumbass voters.
Comment
Willie Bee
SBR Posting Legend
02-14-06
15726
#9
Hell, I would pavy. Love the hedge.
Comment
Ganchrow
SBR Hall of Famer
08-28-05
5011
#10
Originally posted by pavyracer
Should I hedge some money with McCain at +400?
As always your hedging decision should depend both on how much you initially risked in relation to your bankroll as well as your estimate of current fair value.
BTW, you can currently pick up Republican for about +588 on Matchbook after 2% commission.
Comment
Poker_Beast
SBR Hall of Famer
09-14-06
6547
#11
Nope, you are holding a winner
Comment
LMAOFISH
SBR Sharp
03-08-07
281
#12
If you're going to hedge, do it somewhere else. +400 is terrible. Greek has +545 right now, exchanges have even better.
Comment
Nicky Santoro
SBR Posting Legend
04-08-08
16103
#13
of course you shouldn't hedge.. you'd be losing value by this.. you're better off keeping it..
but i dont buy it that you have obama at -110.. yes it was -110, but did you really get it at its peak of -110
Does paver really have obama at exactly -110
NO -185
YES +165
if yes, i want to see proof of ticket and the book you played it at.. i am not buying it.. i am not saying 100% you dont have it, but i am saying that around 65% chance you didnt get it at -110, and for 1500..
show me the ticket..........
show me the money.............
will paver show proof
NO -110
YES -110
Comment
Tosser
SBR Sharp
08-13-08
263
#14
how can he show proof if the bet was with a local?
Comment
firedawg
BARRELED IN @ SBR!
10-08-08
39231
#15
no, obama was way more expensive than -110 3 weeks ago. pavy knows this
