Everyone accepts the Surge Story as gospel. To Sen McCain, it is a revelation from On High.
Violence in Iraq has declined, simply because another 30,000 US troops have arrived on the scene.
It's become such a truism, that even Obama was subdued into acknowledging it's great success.
NOT!!
The Surge, conceived by the certified morons of the Amer Enterprise Institute, a neocon asylum, had very little to do with the lessening of violence.
You might attribute around 20% of the lessening to Surge.
Mainly, it's 3 other reasons: the McClatchey newspaper group had recent access to a yet unpublished National Intelligence Estimate report, which debunks the Surge scam.
According to the still secret NIE report, the Surge was "just one reason" for a relative calming of the troubled waters in Iraq.
Other more important factors were the truce declared by Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the main Iran-backed Muslim militia, the Mahdi Army; and the desertion of the Sunni Muslim fighters to the US side, and their turning on their former allies, the Al Queda in Iraq.
The last may be the most significant factor in the calming of the last year. The Sunnis pretty much realized a few years ago that their alliance with Al queda was an error, which pissed off their own people with the sickening and ultra-violent tactcs.
So the Sunnis made a deal with the American military: they would ally with them to drive out alQueda, and in turn each of their fighters (some 75000 to 100000) would get a few hundred a month from the US, as payment.
This development was given the name of Sunni Awakening, tho it's been since changed many times.
And, it started long before the Surge came into play.
One part of the deal was that, eventually, the fuctions of the local army and police in the Sunni Triangle would be controllled by Sunnis.
Ah, ha!! That's where the rubber meets the road.
Ain't no way the Shia-dominated Central Govt is gonna allow that.
In fact, most recently, the Iraqi govt has put a price on the heads of several hundred of the Awakening leaders, who have gone into hiding, feeling betrayed again.
A high ranking US military officer who worked closely with the Awakening group has expressed fears that his Sunni allies were being "thrown to the curb."
This "awakening" seems ready to break down. And if so all bets are off.
Ditto for the currently quiet Mahdi Army, under some Iranian influence. If the US does not get its troops out of Iraq in good time, the Iranians,who have a strong influence with the Iraq govt, could well tell the Mahdi Army to start killing Americans again, to hasten their departure.
Another factor in the decline of violence is that the ethnic cleansing in Iraq is jsut about complete. Sunnins and Shia are pretty much separated and segregated. Sometimes with high walls. The "peace" of a prison.
And this is the Surge we are all supposed to collapse before in worship.
Violence in Iraq has declined, simply because another 30,000 US troops have arrived on the scene.
It's become such a truism, that even Obama was subdued into acknowledging it's great success.
NOT!!
The Surge, conceived by the certified morons of the Amer Enterprise Institute, a neocon asylum, had very little to do with the lessening of violence.
You might attribute around 20% of the lessening to Surge.
Mainly, it's 3 other reasons: the McClatchey newspaper group had recent access to a yet unpublished National Intelligence Estimate report, which debunks the Surge scam.
According to the still secret NIE report, the Surge was "just one reason" for a relative calming of the troubled waters in Iraq.
Other more important factors were the truce declared by Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the main Iran-backed Muslim militia, the Mahdi Army; and the desertion of the Sunni Muslim fighters to the US side, and their turning on their former allies, the Al Queda in Iraq.
The last may be the most significant factor in the calming of the last year. The Sunnis pretty much realized a few years ago that their alliance with Al queda was an error, which pissed off their own people with the sickening and ultra-violent tactcs.
So the Sunnis made a deal with the American military: they would ally with them to drive out alQueda, and in turn each of their fighters (some 75000 to 100000) would get a few hundred a month from the US, as payment.
This development was given the name of Sunni Awakening, tho it's been since changed many times.
And, it started long before the Surge came into play.
One part of the deal was that, eventually, the fuctions of the local army and police in the Sunni Triangle would be controllled by Sunnis.
Ah, ha!! That's where the rubber meets the road.
Ain't no way the Shia-dominated Central Govt is gonna allow that.
In fact, most recently, the Iraqi govt has put a price on the heads of several hundred of the Awakening leaders, who have gone into hiding, feeling betrayed again.
A high ranking US military officer who worked closely with the Awakening group has expressed fears that his Sunni allies were being "thrown to the curb."
This "awakening" seems ready to break down. And if so all bets are off.
Ditto for the currently quiet Mahdi Army, under some Iranian influence. If the US does not get its troops out of Iraq in good time, the Iranians,who have a strong influence with the Iraq govt, could well tell the Mahdi Army to start killing Americans again, to hasten their departure.
Another factor in the decline of violence is that the ethnic cleansing in Iraq is jsut about complete. Sunnins and Shia are pretty much separated and segregated. Sometimes with high walls. The "peace" of a prison.
And this is the Surge we are all supposed to collapse before in worship.
